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Results: 601 to 610 of 1,000
Results: 601 to 610 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Canadian Dollar Risks Mount
by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2018 23:03
USD/CAD is in the midst of a second week of gains and with two important events....The yen was the top performer on Wednesday while the New Zealand dollar....The RNBZ left rates unchanged in early Asia-Pacific trade...The EURUSD trade was allosed to be stopped out...A new short in a key equity index has just been posted to susbcribers...Dow futures are currently -260 pts...S&P500 futures -26 pts...The market remained jittery on Wednesday and that's likely to continue for....After spending most of the day in positive territory, the S&P 500....5% lower and full further after hours...Recoveries are rarely V-shaped unless central banks or governments take....What's increasingly clear is that the FX market has been shaken out of its....We need only to look to the bond market to see why...Yesterday we highlighted the quick rebound in yields after the VIX-....More evidence came in a soft Treasury auction Wednesday and another 3...4 bps rise in yields...It's difficult to envision a scenario when 10s aren't trading at....One spot where the dollar is having success is against commodity currencies...Oil slid Wednesday after a 300K jump in US production to above 10mbpd for the....The US is now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia – something that'....That makes the Canadian dollar particularly vulnerable...What adds to that vulnerability is the uncertainty of the path of the BOC...Some clarity might come on Thursday in a speech from Wilkins that will be....nbsp; The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a March hike and a 56% chance....Two critical factors determining BoC hikes are NAFTA discussions late this....The prior two reports were sensational but a minimum wage hike and some mean....A near-term level to watch in USD/CAD is 1...2620, which is the confluence of the 55 and 100 DMAs...Another commodity currency to watch is NZD...The RBNZ left rates at 1...75% and added a note to the statement saying inflation is projected to remain....Spencer also said he expected the kiwi to weaken.
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Intraday Market Thought: Familiar Beat, Different Dance
by Adam Button | Feb 9, 2018 0:41
Any rout in stock markets is impressive but not unique...What's different this time is how localized the trauma is...We look at the reasons why...The Swiss franc was the top performer Thursday while the Australian dollar....In the Premium Insights, Ashraf locked in 330-pip gain in long GBPAUD and 530-....To catch Ashraf's special Monday webinar on trading during volatility and....Almost any time this century, a washout in stock markets would result in a....Bond yields would fall and the yen would catch a bid as risk trades and carry....Yet surveying the FX market and, especially, the bond market over the....US equities, meanwhile, are down 10% after a late-Thursday selloff broke....Explanations aren't easy...Many point to the bump in wage inflation in the US jobs report and the ensuing....Certainly one factor is the implosion of bets against volatility...A few carcasses have already emerged and we have no doubt there are more if only....Perhaps it's a combination of factors specific to equities...The US tax reform trade inspired euphoria and slaughtered shorts while....When are bond yields too high for stocks?....Timing has certainly played a part as well...There is no great carry trade to unwind...The euro had been used as a funding currency for years but that unwound in....The yen has also seen inflows during a solid stretch of growth...Ultimately, the broader picture is unchanged but the market psychology has....Expect a more-picky, skeptical environment for at least a few months...That will put extra emphasis on incoming data...On particular spot to watch in the day ahead is Canada's jobs report...USD/CAD touched the highs of 2018 on Thursday and the Canadian jobs report is....The consensus at +10K is too high after back-to-back extremely strong reports..
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Intraday Market Thought: Retail Signs Ignored
by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2018 23:14
A third consecutive contraction in US retail sales threatens the enthusiasm....Ashraf's chart below shows the other two occasions when retail sales fell....The yen was the top performer while the euro lagged...Economists began lowering their Q1 US growth estimates below 2% Wednesday....The consensus was for a 0...3% m/m rise but spending was down 0...1%....It was the first time sales had contracted for three straight months....The details were also weak with the control group up 0...1% compared to +0...4% expected...A sign of trouble?....That's doubtful...The dip in sales comes after several strong months late last year and....The tax cut may also surely provide a tailwind to growth in the months ahead...That sentiment was reflected in the market reaction to the report...The US dollar dipped on the headlines but recovered shortly afterwards...What's more pressing is the path of inflation...On that front, US PPI was a touch on the hot side Tuesday at 0...2%....Politics is also an endless soap opera but the main focus right now should....Also note that equities and USD/JPY have lately struggled to hold intraday gains...Ten-year Treasury yields are also near the lows of the month...Those might be early-warning signs about trouble in broader markets...Traders are increasingly concerned about protectionist rhetoric and so far Trump&....Finally, now Bitcoin falling below the March lows on Wednesday, partly caused....The February low of 5,920 marked the bottom of the Head & Shoulders....Bears looking for a retest.
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Intraday Market Thought: Emerging Worries
by Adam Button | May 2, 2018 22:56
The Fed was the focus on Wednesday, at least for a short period, but underlying....AUD edged out USD as the top performer on the day while the euro lagged...Australian trade balance is due up next...Our DAX30 short was stopped by 15 pips (before the index headed lower) for 300....The DOW30 short was closed for 450-pt gain...The FOMC decision was a one-hour event in the sense that it moved markets for a....The initial move was lower in the dollar and then it rebounded completely...The statement added two nods to the symmetric 2% inflation target and....The symmetric reference is a subtle warning that the Fed will see 2...5% inflation in much the same was as 1...5% inflation in that it won't immediately react...It's a signal that 2% isn't the ceiling of tolerable inflation...At the same time, that's something many FOMC members have emphasized....It didn't change the markets 96% implied probability of a June hike...From there it will continue to be all about economic data, which is in heavy....So why the US dollar rally? Aside from the themes about rate differentials,....Big flows at the moment are emanating from emerging markets where trouble is....Argentina's peso fell 3% Wednesday despite a panicky 3 percentage point....The Turkish lira fell 2% and the Russian ruble continues to struggle...Emerging market money tends not to be overly discriminating and problems in....Higher US rates have changed the equation for many investors and trickle....In developed markets, the Australian dollar continues to struggle but has so....It could get some help at 0130 GMT in the March trade balance report...The consensus is for a healty $865 million surplus.
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Swings as Trump Quits Iran Deal
by Adam Button | May 9, 2018 1:11
Donald Trump fulfilled a campaign promise by announcing the US departure....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the commodity currencies lagged...The latest Premium Video signals which trades Ashraf will be taking on....More importantly, he tackles the importance of figuring out how much of....After weeks of speculation and international lobbying, Trump opted to....Throughout the day Tuesday, rumors and denials bounced WTI crude oil prices....From as high as $70...40 to as low as $67...63 before ultimately finishing close to unchanged and near $70...Monday's high of $70...76 will be a key level to watch in the days ahead...Other markets also fluctuated out of genuine fear or elation...One reason for the largely-muted market reaction suggested there is still room....The sanctions have mandatory 90-day and 180-day notice periods to give companies....In his announcement, Trump invited Iran back to the negotiating table at any....Another interesting move was in USD/CAD as the pair rallied to 1...2998 as oil dropped to the lows of the day...The inability to break above followed by a slide down to 1...2948 suggests firm resistance ahead of the big figure...The pair rallied after hitting its H&S target of 1...25...Does the current rally comprise an inverse H&S? Ashraf answers this in..
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Intraday Market Thought: If Theresay May Can Survive This…
by Adam Button | Jul 9, 2018 23:29
It was the worst news day for the UK government since last year's....UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson quits his post, hours after Brexit Secretary....The Australian dollar was the top performer on the day while the yen....Chinese CPI is due up next...The video on existing and future traders is made available for Premium....On Friday, Boris Johnson delivered an impassioned speech in favor of May's....For a time, that looked like it could be the beginning of the end for Theresa....Yet reports say she received a standing ovation after a party meeting...We have long argued that PM May us safe in her job because no one else wants the....Instead, Davis, Johnson and others are likely angling to replace her after the....If that's correct, then this might be as bad as it gets for May...If anything, the pound's resilience is impressive...Had PM May suffered these resignations at a different point, the losses for....3200 from 1...3350...The bounce to 1...3260 late also demonstrated that buyers are lurking...We are eager to see how the day ahead unfolds but if the bad news is out of....At the same time, broad sentiment improved Monday as trade tensions ebbed,....Chinese shares finally bounced in a 2...5% climb and that stoked a better tone elsewhere, including a rise in USD/JPY....80 from 110...40...In the hours ahead, risks will remain elevated with China June PPI and CPI due....Inflation is forecast to rise 1...9% y/y.
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Intraday Market Thought: Powell’s Puzzle
by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2018 12:54
The US dollar loses grip on the main currencies, while the yen descends in....Fed chair Powell reiterated it will only be a matter of time until inflation....GBP recovers from the day's lows even as Trump said there would be no....Yen extends losses despite yields' decline and CADJPY was stopped out...Thursday's US CPI report stalled the US dollar's advance...Prices rose 0...1% m/m compared to 0...2% expected leading to a 30 pip dip across the board in the dollar...In year-over-year terms, prices rose 2...9% to match expectations...Notably, yearly rise may be the high-water mark for the months ahead because....In the bigger picture, the Fed's Powell talked about the puzzle of....He said the Fed doesn't understand why it's failed to pick up despite a....But consider this, year-over-year inflation has rarely risen above 4% in....Core inflation hasn't touched above 3% since 1996...The early 1990s were when globalization truly took hold...Since then, no developed market has experienced runaway inflation...Perhaps Powell is right that wage inflation is about to pick up but one....If so, that would imply a lower terminal rate for all the central banks and....More clues on inflation will be obtained next week when Powell delivers the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yield Curve Considerations
by Adam Button | Jul 18, 2018 12:19
The US yield curve fell to its flattest level since the crisis on Tuesday as Fed....All currencies are down against the USD...GBP is the biggest loser on weaker than expected UK inflation, but with the....4% 00 well over the BoE target, the case for an Aug 2nd rate hike remains...The Premium DAX short was stopped out...Not always recessionary but...There is a raging debate inside the Fed about the implications of an inverted....Over the past half-century every inversion has triggered an interest rate....On Tuesday, the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields fell to just 24....If the Fed hikes as anticipated, it will almost surely invert in the year ahead...Chapter 6 of Ashraf's book goes deeper in each of the yield curve....In it, Ashraf asserts that the inversion of 1998 did not lead to recession, but....For traders, it is more important to be able predict rate cuts, or changes in....So is it a signal? Powell doesn't think so...On Tuesday he weighed in to say that the only real signal from the yield curve....nbsp; Time will tell if that's true or not but in the short term, the....Like in quantum physics, since the market now knows Powell won't stop....nbsp; That's because 1) it's a sign Powell will be more aggressive 2)....In the short run, Powell's comments helpe boost the US dollar, but in the....Insurance....The crux of the problem continues to be that developed-market inflation remains....The Fed is hiking because it believes a tighter jobs market will inevitably lead....More importantly, the Fed intends to normalize interest rates as far as it....i...e...Fed funds rates will be high enough to be reduced.
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Intraday Market Thought: Month-End Flows won't Obstruct Clarity
by Adam Button | Jul 30, 2018 22:47
Month-end flows may have played a part in the recent USD decline and equity....The Swiss franc was the top performer on the day while the US dollar and yen....A heavy day of data awaits in Asia-Pacific trade...The Premium short in USDCAD was closed for 140-pip gain...A note has been issued after the close...Members' full video is found below...The US dollar was weak on Monday as July came to an en and CAD is the strongest....Overall FX moves were miniscule but the kiwi came out slightly ahead with the....Uncertainty about trade and central bank policy remain supreme in FX...In the 2nd half of the quarter, we expect more clarity and that should....Monday's data on US pending home sales underscored the dilemma...The economy and consumers are strong, yet housing has struggled all year...Pending home sales were down 4...0% year-over-year...Looking ahead, the calendar is busy with some final data for the BoE before....A BoE hike is 90% priced in so the GfK consumer confidence data at 2301 GMT is....The consensus is -9...Then it's onto the Japanese jobs report and industrial production at 2330....Afterwards Chinese manufacturing is due at 0100 GMT with Australian building....As for AUD/USD, it's struggled to get off the floor but a few rounds of....Don't forget the Bank of Japan....Then comes the Bank of Japan decision, which has no scheduled time but will....The longer it runs, the more likely a change in policy becomes...This is a complex announcement with the BOJ likely to lower its inflation....Everything is on the table including higher yield curve targets, wider....The underlying reason is to improve the sustainability of the programs because....Watch out for a messy market response.
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Shrugs Trump Snub
by Adam Button | Aug 28, 2018 13:23
The Canadian dollar has broken a major triangle resistance vs USD despite....Does that mean a US-Canada deal is inevitable despite tough US talk? The....A new JPY trade has been issued to Premium subscribers with 2 charts &....USD selling is being led by EURUSD and AUDUSD, while USDCAD breaks below a 6-....US and Mexican leaders lauded a breakthrough in NAFTA talks...That's undoubtedly good news or the global economy and shows the Trump White....That was reflected in a 22 point jump in the S&P 500 to a fresh record...What's less certain is what this means for Canada...The US-Mexico talks were touted as a way for both countries to sort out....Instead, they cut out Canada and struck a deal on their own...Mexican president Nieto added some token lines aimed at including Canada but the....The Premium short in USDCAD is currently yielding 160 pips and remains open...That's likely the message the Canadian negotiator Freeland will....Some parts of the deal may be acceptable to Canada...The sunset provision is gone and replaced with a 16-year deal that doesn&....However there is no longer a dispute resolution system and it was that clause....US Congress insists that Canada be part of the final deal...All the large US labour unions insist that NAFTA should remain trilateral and....What's also unclear is what's included on dairy another other....From the outside, it looks as if Canada has been placed in a corner with few....Headline risks are high in the day ahead while we should not forget the 81% odds..
