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  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Into Focus

    by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2017 14:22
    Fed Into Focus Chart Choppy USD trade ensues ahead of today's highly anticipated Fed announcement,....The antipodean currencies dominate trading, led by a soaring kiwi as NZ'....UK retail sales beat expectations and US existing home sales fell by more than....New trade actions and videos will be posted this afternoon ahead of the Fed&....Trump was at the UN and ramped up rhetoric against North Korea and Iran....At the moment, the dollar is less-sensitive to geopolitical headlines than....That's in part due to higher liquidity but there is also a newfound....Balance Sheet to Overshadow Dots....Expect the focus to center on the balance sheet reduction program, which....What will be the planned reduction amount in 2017? $30 bn, $40bn or more?....The FOMC decision may prove to be more hawkish than many believe...The dot plot will be downgraded to some degree but 12 of the 16 dots in June....Yellen will also want to keep her options open, especially if Republicans....The market overall is net short the US dollar but Yellen and the Fed are....All it would take to restart the US dollar rally is a fresh hint at a..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Russia Redux But Focus Elsewhere

    by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2017 21:53
    Russia Redux But Focus Elsewhere Chart The front-page news this week might be the Trump-Russia drama but the US dollar....The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...Japanese jobless numbers are due later...A new Premium trade has been posted and sent, supported by 3 charts and 4....It will be explained in detail in Tuesday's Premium video...سيتم شرح صفقة هذا المساء بالتفصيل في الفيديو العربي يوم الثلاثاء للمشتركين...nbsp;....The indictment of Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort and another top....The playbook earlier this year was to fade any moves on the investigation,....That won't change unless the scandal reaches the President or his family...In the meantime, the market has far more direct and near-term news to drive....One story is the Fed chair decision, which will is expected on Thursday...A further leak Monday suggested that Powell is the likely pick and that's....It's part of the reason that 10-year yields fell back below 2...40% to 2...36%....Another part of the reason is that the corporate tax cut might take years...A report indicated that the plan – which will be released Wednesday....That's still good for corporate USA but not as quick and powerful as hoped...In turn, the US dollar fell through most of the session...Sterling, in particularly, took advantage in an 80 pip rally...That may also reflect a sense in the GBP market that it can focus on the BOE....In the near-term, Asia-Pacific traders will look to Japanese data on jobs at..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Waits, BOE Next

    by Adam Button | Nov 1, 2017 22:30
    Fed Waits, BOE Next Chart The Fed touted better growth but the FOMC statement reiterated concerns about....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer after solid jobs figures,....Australian trade balance is due next followed the BoE decision on Thursday...2 GBP and 1 FTSE trades are in progress...The Fed decision was a bit of a dud in terms of market moves...The initial reaction was to sell the US dollar as the Fed indicated inflation....USD traders now shift to Thursday's tax plan...A Congresswoman said the details will be released at 9 am ET (1300 GMT)....The drawback to much details is disappointment...Political spin is sure to come from deficit hawks...The grandstanding will be intense and that might prompt a move to safe havens...The other US news to come on Thursday will be the Fed chair decision...However, a late-breaking report says Powell has been told the job is his...That decision was mostly priced in and the attention will now turn to his....Before that, data on Australian trade balance is due at 0030 GMT...The consensus is for a surplus of A$1...2B and any miss could send another jolt through AUD trading...The bigger market mover will be the Bank of England decision...The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a hike so the bigger driver will be....The BoE Minutes will show the extent of unanimity, the BoE inflation report....Plenty of market watchers are talking about a one-and done but the market is....That's a low bar...Carney could sound his usual neutral stance, but if he's constructive..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Crypto Shakeout, USD Wilt Continues, BOC Next

    by Adam Button | Jan 17, 2018 0:18
    Crypto Shakeout, USD Wilt Continues, BOC Next Chart Tuesday was a brutal day for cryptocurrencies with falls from 20-40%....The Swiss franc was the best performer Tuesday while the New Zealand dollar....The BOC decision is coming later...There are 4 existing Premium trades in progress, all of which are in the green...nbsp; Here is a tweet from Ashraf on Dec 12, 6 day before Bitcoin's peak...Bitcoin fell 20% on Tuesday as the US returned from a holiday and talk of a....Ripple fell 40% as well...One story was the collapse of the cryptoscam from Bitconnect and that may....Impressively, the dip buyers stepped in on a few fronts and Bitcoin rebounded....20 from $0...87...In FX, the US dollar finally staged a rebound and EUR/USD briefly fell below 1...2200 but it couldn't even sustain itself for the day as EUR/USD rebounded....2270 and USD/JPY made fresh lows, in part due to the first negative day of....Taking a step back,  it's clear that the animal spirits have been....Some tipping point has been reached and the crisis-era wounds have finally been....That is changing the way markets behave and adapting with it will be a major....In the global economy, the big question right now is how deeply central bankers....One big clue will come Wednesday in the Bank of Canada decision...Here is Ashraf's piece on the BoC...It's unlikely that Poloz badly wants to hike but he painted himself into a....He's also limited in his statement communication by the same misstep...However, he may also increasingly believe that an acceleration in growth....In that case, a hike with a hawkish stance is appropriate and USD/CAD will....20.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Seasonals. Really?

    by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2018 12:33
    Bitcoin Seasonals. Really? Chart Watch out FX traders...Wednesday was another tumultuous day in the currencies following BoC hike and US....Overnight, Aussie jobs slowed to a higher level than was expected but....80...Earlier today, US Philly Fed survey eased as well as US jobless claims...Here is a chart suggesting a possible January-February seasonality in Bitcoin&....Could it be a result of Chinese selling Bitcoin in January to help Chinese New....The Bank of Canada delivered a rate hike that was 90% priced in but left the....The initial reaction in USD/CAD was higher on talk of a dovish hike but the....He spoke about wanting to get back to 2...50%-3...50% and increased confidence the economy was on track...At the same time, he spent half the press conference talking about NAFTA....After hitting 1...2520 USD/CAD slowly reversed down to the lows of the day at 1...2370 but part due to a broad US dollar selloff...At the same time, cable soared to a post-Brexit high of 1...3940 as part of a rout on the dollar...However the selling stopped after the Beige Book...It offered a slightly more-optimistic take on wages and the economy...Earlier in the day, Dallas Fed President Kaplan also made a hawkish shift,....With that, the dollar began a broad reversal and cable fell back to 1...3820 – more than 120 pips from the high...The euro also fell below 1...22 and USD/JPY rose to 111...30...As part of the same move, bonds sold off and US 10-year yields rose to 2...59% while gold suffered a $10 decline, which is the worst in five weeks...Through it all, the S&P 500 ripped another 26 points higher to close just....Sorting through all the 'why' in the market right now is a mammoth task...More important is the 'what' and that's heightened volatility...It was evident in FX lately and it could spread...If so, that's a broader negative for stocks and risk appetite...It's getting close to the time for caution.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Canadian Dollar Risks Mount

    by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2018 23:03
    Canadian Dollar Risks Mount Chart USD/CAD is in the midst of a second week of gains and with two important events....The yen was the top performer on Wednesday while the New Zealand dollar....The RNBZ left rates unchanged in early Asia-Pacific trade...The EURUSD trade was allosed to be stopped out...A new short in a key equity index has just been posted to susbcribers...Dow futures are currently -260 pts...S&P500 futures -26 pts...The market remained jittery on Wednesday and that's likely to continue for....After spending most of the day in positive territory, the S&P 500....5% lower and full further after hours...Recoveries are rarely V-shaped unless central banks or governments take....What's increasingly clear is that the FX market has been shaken out of its....We need only to look to the bond market to see why...Yesterday we highlighted the quick rebound in yields after the VIX-....More evidence came in a soft Treasury auction Wednesday and another 3...4 bps rise in yields...It's difficult to envision a scenario when 10s aren't trading at....One spot where the dollar is having success is against commodity currencies...Oil slid Wednesday after a 300K jump in US production to above 10mbpd for the....The US is now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia – something that'....That makes the Canadian dollar particularly vulnerable...What adds to that vulnerability is the uncertainty of the path of the BOC...Some clarity might come on Thursday in a speech from Wilkins that will be....nbsp; The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a March hike and a 56% chance....Two critical factors determining BoC hikes are NAFTA discussions late this....The prior two reports were sensational but a minimum wage hike and some mean....A near-term level to watch in USD/CAD is 1...2620, which is the confluence of the 55 and 100 DMAs...Another commodity currency to watch is NZD...The RBNZ left rates at 1...75% and added a note to the statement saying inflation is projected to remain....Spencer also said he expected the kiwi to weaken.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Familiar Beat, Different Dance

    by Adam Button | Feb 9, 2018 0:41
    Familiar Beat, Different Dance Chart Any rout in stock markets is impressive but not unique...What's different this time is how localized the trauma is...We look at the reasons why...The Swiss franc was the top performer Thursday while the Australian dollar....In the Premium Insights, Ashraf locked in 330-pip gain in long GBPAUD and 530-....To catch Ashraf's special Monday webinar on trading during volatility and....Almost any time this century, a washout in stock markets would result in a....Bond yields would fall and the yen would catch a bid as risk trades and carry....Yet surveying the FX market and, especially, the bond market over the....US equities, meanwhile, are down 10% after a late-Thursday selloff broke....Explanations aren't easy...Many point to the bump in wage inflation in the US jobs report and the ensuing....Certainly one factor is the implosion of bets against volatility...A few carcasses have already emerged and we have no doubt there are more if only....Perhaps it's a combination of factors specific to equities...The US tax reform trade inspired euphoria and slaughtered shorts while....When are bond yields too high for stocks?....Timing has certainly played a part as well...There is no great carry trade to unwind...The euro had been used as a funding currency for years but that unwound in....The yen has also seen inflows during a solid stretch of growth...Ultimately, the broader picture is unchanged but the market psychology has....Expect a more-picky, skeptical environment for at least a few months...That will put extra emphasis on incoming data...On particular spot to watch in the day ahead is Canada's jobs report...USD/CAD touched the highs of 2018 on Thursday and the Canadian jobs report is....The consensus at +10K is too high after back-to-back extremely strong reports..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Retail Signs Ignored

    by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2018 23:14
    Retail Signs Ignored Chart A third consecutive contraction in US retail sales threatens the enthusiasm....Ashraf's chart below shows the other two occasions when retail sales fell....The yen was the top performer while the euro lagged...Economists began lowering their Q1 US growth estimates below 2% Wednesday....The consensus was for a 0...3% m/m rise but spending was down 0...1%....It was the first time sales had contracted for three straight months....The details were also weak with the control group up 0...1% compared to +0...4% expected...A sign of trouble?....That's doubtful...The dip in sales comes after several strong months late last year and....The tax cut may also surely provide a tailwind to growth in the months ahead...That sentiment was reflected in the market reaction to the report...The US dollar dipped on the headlines but recovered shortly afterwards...What's more pressing is the path of inflation...On that front, US PPI was a touch on the hot side Tuesday at 0...2%....Politics is also an endless soap opera but the main focus right now should....Also note that equities and USD/JPY have lately struggled to hold intraday gains...Ten-year Treasury yields are also near the lows of the month...Those might be early-warning signs about trouble in broader markets...Traders are increasingly concerned about protectionist rhetoric and so far Trump&....Finally, now Bitcoin falling below the March lows on Wednesday, partly caused....The February low of 5,920 marked the bottom of the Head & Shoulders....Bears looking for a retest.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Emerging Worries

    by Adam Button | May 2, 2018 22:56
    Emerging Worries Chart The Fed was the focus on Wednesday, at least for a short period, but underlying....AUD edged out USD as the top performer on the day while the euro lagged...Australian trade balance is due up next...Our DAX30 short was stopped by 15 pips (before the index headed lower) for 300....The DOW30 short was closed for 450-pt gain...The FOMC decision was a one-hour event in the sense that it moved markets for a....The initial move was lower in the dollar and then it rebounded completely...The statement added two nods to the symmetric 2% inflation target and....The symmetric reference is a subtle warning that the Fed will see 2...5% inflation in much the same was as 1...5% inflation in that it won't immediately react...It's a signal that 2% isn't the ceiling of tolerable inflation...At the same time, that's something many FOMC members have emphasized....It didn't change the markets 96% implied probability of a June hike...From there it will continue to be all about economic data, which is in heavy....So why the US dollar rally? Aside from the themes about rate differentials,....Big flows at the moment are emanating from emerging markets where trouble is....Argentina's peso fell 3% Wednesday despite a panicky 3 percentage point....The Turkish lira fell 2% and the Russian ruble continues to struggle...Emerging market money tends not to be overly discriminating and problems in....Higher US rates have changed the equation for many investors and trickle....In developed markets, the Australian dollar continues to struggle but has so....It could get some help at 0130 GMT in the March trade balance report...The consensus is for a healty $865 million surplus.

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Swings as Trump Quits Iran Deal

    by Adam Button | May 9, 2018 1:11
    CAD Swings as Trump Quits Iran Deal Chart Donald Trump fulfilled a campaign promise by announcing the US departure....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the commodity currencies lagged...The latest Premium Video signals which trades Ashraf will be taking on....More importantly, he tackles the importance of figuring out how much of....After weeks of speculation and international lobbying, Trump opted to....Throughout the day Tuesday, rumors and denials bounced WTI crude oil prices....From as high as $70...40 to as low as $67...63 before ultimately finishing close to unchanged and near $70...Monday's high of $70...76 will be a key level to watch in the days ahead...Other markets also fluctuated out of genuine fear or elation...One reason for the largely-muted market reaction suggested there is still room....The sanctions have mandatory 90-day and 180-day notice periods to give companies....In his announcement, Trump invited Iran back to the negotiating table at any....Another interesting move was in USD/CAD as the pair rallied to 1...2998 as oil dropped to the lows of the day...The inability to break above followed by a slide down to 1...2948 suggests firm resistance ahead of the big figure...The pair rallied after hitting its H&S target of 1...25...Does the current rally comprise an inverse H&S? Ashraf answers this in..
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