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  • Intraday Market Thought: Jobs Report Shuffles the Deck

    by Adam Button | Sep 10, 2018 13:13
    Jobs Report Shuffles the Deck Chart The odds of two more rate hikes from the Fed this year rose after better wage....The US dollar was the top performer last week while the New Zealand dollar....CFTC data showed flip in euro spec positioning...A 3rd trade in the US dollar has been posted to subscribers...A very busy week ahead, includes UK jobs (Tues), Australian jobs & US CPI....US non-farm payrolls were close to expectations but the market is entirely....4% m/m compared to 0...2% expected...What's more is that the gains were not limited to supervisory roles and....Markets responded by buying the US dollar in a move that sank the euro down....1550 and cable more than a full cent from the highs of the day...Ten-year Treasury yields rose 6...5 bps to 2...94% and the odds of a second hike in December rose to 67% with a hike later....It was a different story in Canada where employment fell 51...6K jobs compared to +5...0K expected, albeit all the losses were in Part-Time jobs...Hourly wages there also fell to 2...6% y/y compared to 3...0% previously and 3...5% two months ago...USD/CAD jumped to 1...3175 from 1...3110...NAFTA negotiations also appear to be stalled, although the tone remains....US-China tariffs remain the preoccupation of the market...Late Friday Trump said he could put an additional $267 billion in tariffs on....That's in addition to the $200B that's already under consideration and....On the weekend he once again railed against China in tweets and said tariffs....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +8K vs -7K prior...GBP -70K vs -77K prior...JPY -52K vs -46K prior...CHF -40K vs -45K prior...CAD -26K vs -25K prior...AUD -44K vs -45K prior...NZD -25K vs -24K prior....The euro position flipped back to net but the timing on that one was poor with....The big net short on the franc is a bit of a puzzle...USD/CHF has taken a beating in the past three weeks and is at 5-month low so..

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Leads Run vs USD

    by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2018 18:09
    CAD Leads Run vs USD Chart What a difference 24 hours makes...Tuesday's broad rally in the USD gave way to an allround sell-off in the....Brent oil hitting $80 for the first time in  4 months is also helping to....A new index was issued earlier today ahead of Thursday's ECB decision/....A pair of indicators released Tuesday emphasized just how strong the US....But the Canadian dollar was the top performer on late signs of optimism in....The US economy has had so many false starts that it's easy to understand....On Tuesday two second-tier data points hit records...The NFIB small business sentiment survey and JOLTS job openings were both better....The NFIB survey is incredibly detailed and virtually every part of the survey....The JOLTS survey also showed a jump in quits, which is a sign that people are....Sentiment continued higher late in the day on a report that Canada is giving....That was coupled with somewhat positive comments from Trump on a deal as well as....USD/CAD droped to 1...2980 from 1...3150 on the headlines...The USDCAD Premium short remains open...Sterling had a late session jump on news that the EU is rethinking the protocol....Chatter that the ECB will revise down 2019 and 20120 GDP outlook tomorrow has....0% target.

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Big Question for Dollar Bulls

    by Adam Button | Oct 9, 2018 13:48
    The Big Question for Dollar Bulls Chart The big question for 2018 is how much the Federal Reserve will hike interest....The yen is the top performer, while the euro lags...nbsp; The Premium DAX short hit the final target for 300-pt gain (400 if....The Premium Video "Testing the Parameters", highlighting the state....The bond market and the yen have been sending opposing signals for the past....That's partly due to risk aversion but it raises many questions about the....The Fed is currently ebullient about the state of the economy but that's....2018 is likely to be the best year of growth in the US in years and economists....Consider today's announcement from Goldman Sachs that it is scaling down....What's worrisome is how interest-rate-sensitive areas of the US economy....Auto sales have been weak this year and a big reason why is tighter financing....Signs are also increasing that US housing is sluggish...The home builder ETF fell Monday for the 13th consecutive session and a US 30-....A big mystery of the post-crisis economy is how well consumers can handle higher....The answer is likely to be: not as well as before the crisis...That could ensure the Fed pauses in 2019 before many believe...Here's what Ashraf said 3 years ago about USD performance during Fed....Does the study still hold?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why USD Rallied on Fed Stmt

    by Adam Button | Nov 9, 2018 13:04
    Why USD Rallied on Fed Stmt Chart The FOMC statement changed almost nothing and yet the US dollar climbed in....Since the start of the Friday FX trading session (as of 10 pm London last night)....nbsp; The euro is weaker after Draghi made a slight dovish shift on Thursday...UK Q3 GDP grew to 1...5% y/y as expected from 1...2% in Q2...US Oct PPI is up next...A new EUR trade was issued ahead of yesterday's Fed statement and a new....The only changes in the FOMC statement were an indication stating that business....Previously it was characterized as strong...Yet the US dollar climbed 20-50 pips across the board in the aftermath...Some of that might have been USD flows that were restrained until after the....FIRST: Heightened certainty of a December rate hike...There was some speculation that the Fed might want to keep its options open....Instead, they continued to categorize growth and employment as strong...SECOND: Over the longer term, the Fed debate shifted to what will happen in....Considering expectations of a tapering in fiscal policy after the Republicans&....If the Fed intends to slow the pace early in 2019, now would have been a....By maintaining the upbeat tone, that's an endorsement of the current pace....Contrarily, Draghi took a small step towards something more dovish...Speaking in Irish parliament he said that the ECB could push out forward....That's a hypothetical and is stating the obvious to some degree but it's....Chartwise, Ashraf suggests that 10-year yields are heading down towards 3...13% to form a right shoulder support (as part of an inverted H&S formation)....This could mean a bounce for the VIX from 16 to 22, implying fresh downside..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Grind Intensifies

    by Adam Button | Nov 12, 2018 13:46
    Brexit Grind Intensifies Chart Less than 15 minutes before starting to write this IMT, GBPUSD spiked by more....The pound started the week lower as a deal failed to materialized on the....In the Premium Insights, the latest index short extended into the green,....1270...Will EURUSD extend weakness to 1...10 or is it nearing a recovery? This will be covered in today's Premium....Over the last 8 years, the USD Index has ended the month of November higher....Cable started the week down 50 pips on a Times report saying that the EU had....There is also increasing pressure on May to hold her government together and....Juncker said he sees a Brexit deal coming together but time is slowly....USD resumes its climb, dragging EURUSD below 1...1300 as oil prolonged its fall for a record 10th consecutive day (until today)....Saudi Arabia tried to arrest the decline by saying at the weekend's OPEC....There was also talk of a wider OPEC production cut in December...USD/CAD rose to a four-and-a-half month high and will need some help from risk....Note that Monday is a holiday in severall markets, including the US bond....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -47K vs -33K prior...GBP -57K vs -52K prior...JPY -89K vs -92K prior...CHF -20K vs -17K prior...CAD -3K vs -10K prior...AUD -66K vs -70K prior...NZD -26K vs -35K prior....The notable move was in the euro and the short position is now the most-extreme....Some of that undoubtedly reflects a bet that Draghi and the ECB will push out..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Put?

    by Adam Button | Nov 28, 2018 12:36
    Powell Put? Chart More players in the market are looking for a dovish shift from Powell on....The US dollar strengthened Tuesday and there was talk of month-end flows...But today, GBP is the strongest of the lot...A growing sense that the Fed isn't ready to pause rate hikes...Powell speaks later (17:00 London time) in a highly-anticipated speech but those....Powell will likely prove to be less hawkish than more dovish...And will he choose to stick to the script so as not to publicly show he is....Revised US Q3 GDP data is due next...A new Premium trade in JPY will follow shortly...Vice Chair Clarida spoke Tuesday and offered only scraps for the doves...Headlines picked up on a line saying the Fed was 'much closer' to....After 200 basis points of hikes, that's hardly groundbreaking...Meanwhile his speech touted the strength of the 'robust' economy and....But he also stated the need to remain data dependent at more than occasion...It would be highly unusual for Powell's comments Wednesday to diverge from....The financial media is fixated on the dovish scraps at the moment so there'....In politics Tuesday, a German report said Trump could put 25% tariffs on all....The move could come after the G20...One take is that it would be a new phase of aggressive tariffs from Trump,....Another idea is that he likes to focus on one battle at a time and he will..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Corrects Neutral

    by Adam Button | Nov 29, 2018 12:43
    Powell Corrects Neutral Chart Metals and FX were all spurred sharply higher against the US dollar after Fed....Powell said Fed funds rates rates were “just below the vicinity of neutral&....Powell also emphasized that there was no preset policy path and said officials....A new USD trade was issued yesterday evening and is already half a cent in....US core PCE is up next, expected at 1...9%....Moments earlier, German prelim Nov CPI slipped to 2...3% from 2...5%....nbsp;....تداول بعد باول فيديو المشتركين يدخل في صفقة امس...In a more-subtle shift Powell also made fewer mentions of the gradual path of....The market's take was unmistakable...The S&P 500 rallied 2...3% in the biggest climb in eight months and the US dollar fell 40-100 pips....The market continues to price in an 80% chance of a hike in December but now....Technically, cable showed signs of a double bottom at 1...2730 and may also benefit from polls showing the public warming to Theresa....The New Zealand dollar rose above the 200-day moving average for the first....Perhaps most notably, the euro traced an outside day in a rally to 1...1370 from 1...1270...The tone in Italy is moving towards a painful compromise and it's been....That said, it's been beaten down for a reason and that's poor economic....If there is going to be a sustained rally in the euro, it will need to come....German inflation fell to 2...3% from 2...5% vs exp 2...4%....The US also reports on PCE figures later in the day but you would have to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Rare & Telling Trifecta

    by Adam Button | Dec 4, 2018 14:41
    Rare & Telling Trifecta Chart It is rare to see the US dollar, stock indices and long bond yields all falling....Could it be a telling sign of worries about global growth, especially as....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...nbsp; It was the biggest percentage daily change since February 2016...What instrument did that yesterday & what it means for USD and EM? This is....USD-Yields-Stocks in the Red....USD bulls are on the defensive ahead of Wednesday's Powell testimony to....Bond yields are pulling lower, expecially on the long end, reflecting....nbsp;....The Trump-Xi meeting was a positive step and that was reflected in a 30-point....A key one is auto tariffs...Last week Trump floated the idea of import taxes on autos from outside North....One thing to watch will be how Trump's truce with Xi plays out in the media...For the US President, the perception is as important as the reality of the deal...Markets are naturally positive and that's important to Trump but wants to....AUD/USD is caught between the downward forces of risk-off from indices and the....The overnight decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged and signal the same..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May to Speak Ahead of Vote Delay

    by Adam Button | Dec 10, 2018 14:42
    May to Speak Ahead of Vote Delay Chart Sterling tumbles 170 pips or 0...93% to $1...2605 on PM May's decision to delay Tuesday's crucial Brexit vote in....May will address Parliament in a speech at 15:30 GMT/London...The gravity of the situation is highlighted by the unwillingness of the....Japanese GDP was revised lower in early-week trading...The USDCHF Premium short was closed for 140 pip gain...Watching Backstop Amendment....PM May was banking on the possibility of garnering sufficient support from....Whether May will table new amendments to Parliament such as the Backstop....We expect May to suggest going to Brussels (again) for further....A no-deal Brexit is the last resort...That kind of talk would roil markets and she would surely face a crisis of....Ultimately, there is no easy or obvious path for May or towards any kind of GBP-....That's mostly priced in but until there's a concrete reason to buy GBP,....The bigger picture is also a headwind for GBP...Risk aversion carried over from a dismal finish on Friday to more selling as....Commodity currencies are under pressure and the Swiss franc is higher...S&P 500 futures have retreated back into the red at 2622 after an earlier....Non-farm payrolls were modestly weak and earnings were also a touch soft but the....The Fed may have played its best card with a pause signal to after a December....The dollar has so far maintained a bid but on acute risk aversion but it may....Gold is also worth watching closely as it rallied above the October highs on....Early in the week, worries about global growth were sharpened by final Japanese....It showed a 0...6% q/q contraction, worst than 0...5% expected...Business spending was particularly soft.

  • Intraday Market Thought: May's Leadership Challenge Playbook

    by Adam Button | Dec 12, 2018 11:15
    May's Leadership Challenge Playbook Chart GBP markets turn attention away from Brexit and onto PM Theresa May's....The confidence vote shall take place around 6 pm GMT/London and is widely....More below...Risk assets have rebounded after a significantly choppy session, partly due....In 24 hours from now, attention shifts to EUR trading as the ECB unveils its....The latest Premium video below covers the 4 charts cases for the upcoming....Cable has rebounded to 1...26 after having sunk more than a cent from the highs to 1...2490s for the first time in 20 months...It was the second day of heavy selling after the Brexit bill was pulled...GBP's bounce emerges ahead of tonight's confidence vote, which is....Whether this will triggers a fresh dead-cat bounce in GBP until she goes back to....At the same time, it may not get her any closer to an EU-Brexit deal with the....If PM May loses the vote, it could be the start of a civil war within the....Several MPs could challenge for the leadership in a contest that will....Then the vote would go towards the broader members...A nightmare scenario would be a two deeply opposing candidates and a narrow....With no simple path to any kind of clarity or stability, there is no scope....There's a real risk of scenario similar to October 2016 when pound....Ashraf tells me he is increasingly certain we have seen the lows at $1...20 for cable...The next step is to worry about May's negotiations progress with the EU, the..
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