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Results: 611 to 620 of 1,000
Results: 611 to 620 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: If Theresay May Can Survive This…
by Adam Button | Jul 9, 2018 23:29
It was the worst news day for the UK government since last year's....UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson quits his post, hours after Brexit Secretary....The Australian dollar was the top performer on the day while the yen....Chinese CPI is due up next...The video on existing and future traders is made available for Premium....On Friday, Boris Johnson delivered an impassioned speech in favor of May's....For a time, that looked like it could be the beginning of the end for Theresa....Yet reports say she received a standing ovation after a party meeting...We have long argued that PM May us safe in her job because no one else wants the....Instead, Davis, Johnson and others are likely angling to replace her after the....If that's correct, then this might be as bad as it gets for May...If anything, the pound's resilience is impressive...Had PM May suffered these resignations at a different point, the losses for....3200 from 1...3350...The bounce to 1...3260 late also demonstrated that buyers are lurking...We are eager to see how the day ahead unfolds but if the bad news is out of....At the same time, broad sentiment improved Monday as trade tensions ebbed,....Chinese shares finally bounced in a 2...5% climb and that stoked a better tone elsewhere, including a rise in USD/JPY....80 from 110...40...In the hours ahead, risks will remain elevated with China June PPI and CPI due....Inflation is forecast to rise 1...9% y/y.
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Intraday Market Thought: Powell’s Puzzle
by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2018 12:54
The US dollar loses grip on the main currencies, while the yen descends in....Fed chair Powell reiterated it will only be a matter of time until inflation....GBP recovers from the day's lows even as Trump said there would be no....Yen extends losses despite yields' decline and CADJPY was stopped out...Thursday's US CPI report stalled the US dollar's advance...Prices rose 0...1% m/m compared to 0...2% expected leading to a 30 pip dip across the board in the dollar...In year-over-year terms, prices rose 2...9% to match expectations...Notably, yearly rise may be the high-water mark for the months ahead because....In the bigger picture, the Fed's Powell talked about the puzzle of....He said the Fed doesn't understand why it's failed to pick up despite a....But consider this, year-over-year inflation has rarely risen above 4% in....Core inflation hasn't touched above 3% since 1996...The early 1990s were when globalization truly took hold...Since then, no developed market has experienced runaway inflation...Perhaps Powell is right that wage inflation is about to pick up but one....If so, that would imply a lower terminal rate for all the central banks and....More clues on inflation will be obtained next week when Powell delivers the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yield Curve Considerations
by Adam Button | Jul 18, 2018 12:19
The US yield curve fell to its flattest level since the crisis on Tuesday as Fed....All currencies are down against the USD...GBP is the biggest loser on weaker than expected UK inflation, but with the....4% 00 well over the BoE target, the case for an Aug 2nd rate hike remains...The Premium DAX short was stopped out...Not always recessionary but...There is a raging debate inside the Fed about the implications of an inverted....Over the past half-century every inversion has triggered an interest rate....On Tuesday, the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields fell to just 24....If the Fed hikes as anticipated, it will almost surely invert in the year ahead...Chapter 6 of Ashraf's book goes deeper in each of the yield curve....In it, Ashraf asserts that the inversion of 1998 did not lead to recession, but....For traders, it is more important to be able predict rate cuts, or changes in....So is it a signal? Powell doesn't think so...On Tuesday he weighed in to say that the only real signal from the yield curve....nbsp; Time will tell if that's true or not but in the short term, the....Like in quantum physics, since the market now knows Powell won't stop....nbsp; That's because 1) it's a sign Powell will be more aggressive 2)....In the short run, Powell's comments helpe boost the US dollar, but in the....Insurance....The crux of the problem continues to be that developed-market inflation remains....The Fed is hiking because it believes a tighter jobs market will inevitably lead....More importantly, the Fed intends to normalize interest rates as far as it....i...e...Fed funds rates will be high enough to be reduced.
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Intraday Market Thought: Month-End Flows won't Obstruct Clarity
by Adam Button | Jul 30, 2018 22:47
Month-end flows may have played a part in the recent USD decline and equity....The Swiss franc was the top performer on the day while the US dollar and yen....A heavy day of data awaits in Asia-Pacific trade...The Premium short in USDCAD was closed for 140-pip gain...A note has been issued after the close...Members' full video is found below...The US dollar was weak on Monday as July came to an en and CAD is the strongest....Overall FX moves were miniscule but the kiwi came out slightly ahead with the....Uncertainty about trade and central bank policy remain supreme in FX...In the 2nd half of the quarter, we expect more clarity and that should....Monday's data on US pending home sales underscored the dilemma...The economy and consumers are strong, yet housing has struggled all year...Pending home sales were down 4...0% year-over-year...Looking ahead, the calendar is busy with some final data for the BoE before....A BoE hike is 90% priced in so the GfK consumer confidence data at 2301 GMT is....The consensus is -9...Then it's onto the Japanese jobs report and industrial production at 2330....Afterwards Chinese manufacturing is due at 0100 GMT with Australian building....As for AUD/USD, it's struggled to get off the floor but a few rounds of....Don't forget the Bank of Japan....Then comes the Bank of Japan decision, which has no scheduled time but will....The longer it runs, the more likely a change in policy becomes...This is a complex announcement with the BOJ likely to lower its inflation....Everything is on the table including higher yield curve targets, wider....The underlying reason is to improve the sustainability of the programs because....Watch out for a messy market response.
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Shrugs Trump Snub
by Adam Button | Aug 28, 2018 13:23
The Canadian dollar has broken a major triangle resistance vs USD despite....Does that mean a US-Canada deal is inevitable despite tough US talk? The....A new JPY trade has been issued to Premium subscribers with 2 charts &....USD selling is being led by EURUSD and AUDUSD, while USDCAD breaks below a 6-....US and Mexican leaders lauded a breakthrough in NAFTA talks...That's undoubtedly good news or the global economy and shows the Trump White....That was reflected in a 22 point jump in the S&P 500 to a fresh record...What's less certain is what this means for Canada...The US-Mexico talks were touted as a way for both countries to sort out....Instead, they cut out Canada and struck a deal on their own...Mexican president Nieto added some token lines aimed at including Canada but the....The Premium short in USDCAD is currently yielding 160 pips and remains open...That's likely the message the Canadian negotiator Freeland will....Some parts of the deal may be acceptable to Canada...The sunset provision is gone and replaced with a 16-year deal that doesn&....However there is no longer a dispute resolution system and it was that clause....US Congress insists that Canada be part of the final deal...All the large US labour unions insist that NAFTA should remain trilateral and....What's also unclear is what's included on dairy another other....From the outside, it looks as if Canada has been placed in a corner with few....Headline risks are high in the day ahead while we should not forget the 81% odds..
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Intraday Market Thought: Jobs Report Shuffles the Deck
by Adam Button | Sep 10, 2018 13:13
The odds of two more rate hikes from the Fed this year rose after better wage....The US dollar was the top performer last week while the New Zealand dollar....CFTC data showed flip in euro spec positioning...A 3rd trade in the US dollar has been posted to subscribers...A very busy week ahead, includes UK jobs (Tues), Australian jobs & US CPI....US non-farm payrolls were close to expectations but the market is entirely....4% m/m compared to 0...2% expected...What's more is that the gains were not limited to supervisory roles and....Markets responded by buying the US dollar in a move that sank the euro down....1550 and cable more than a full cent from the highs of the day...Ten-year Treasury yields rose 6...5 bps to 2...94% and the odds of a second hike in December rose to 67% with a hike later....It was a different story in Canada where employment fell 51...6K jobs compared to +5...0K expected, albeit all the losses were in Part-Time jobs...Hourly wages there also fell to 2...6% y/y compared to 3...0% previously and 3...5% two months ago...USD/CAD jumped to 1...3175 from 1...3110...NAFTA negotiations also appear to be stalled, although the tone remains....US-China tariffs remain the preoccupation of the market...Late Friday Trump said he could put an additional $267 billion in tariffs on....That's in addition to the $200B that's already under consideration and....On the weekend he once again railed against China in tweets and said tariffs....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +8K vs -7K prior...GBP -70K vs -77K prior...JPY -52K vs -46K prior...CHF -40K vs -45K prior...CAD -26K vs -25K prior...AUD -44K vs -45K prior...NZD -25K vs -24K prior....The euro position flipped back to net but the timing on that one was poor with....The big net short on the franc is a bit of a puzzle...USD/CHF has taken a beating in the past three weeks and is at 5-month low so..
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Leads Run vs USD
by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2018 18:09
What a difference 24 hours makes...Tuesday's broad rally in the USD gave way to an allround sell-off in the....Brent oil hitting $80 for the first time in 4 months is also helping to....A new index was issued earlier today ahead of Thursday's ECB decision/....A pair of indicators released Tuesday emphasized just how strong the US....But the Canadian dollar was the top performer on late signs of optimism in....The US economy has had so many false starts that it's easy to understand....On Tuesday two second-tier data points hit records...The NFIB small business sentiment survey and JOLTS job openings were both better....The NFIB survey is incredibly detailed and virtually every part of the survey....The JOLTS survey also showed a jump in quits, which is a sign that people are....Sentiment continued higher late in the day on a report that Canada is giving....That was coupled with somewhat positive comments from Trump on a deal as well as....USD/CAD droped to 1...2980 from 1...3150 on the headlines...The USDCAD Premium short remains open...Sterling had a late session jump on news that the EU is rethinking the protocol....Chatter that the ECB will revise down 2019 and 20120 GDP outlook tomorrow has....0% target.
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Intraday Market Thought: The Big Question for Dollar Bulls
by Adam Button | Oct 9, 2018 13:48
The big question for 2018 is how much the Federal Reserve will hike interest....The yen is the top performer, while the euro lags...nbsp; The Premium DAX short hit the final target for 300-pt gain (400 if....The Premium Video "Testing the Parameters", highlighting the state....The bond market and the yen have been sending opposing signals for the past....That's partly due to risk aversion but it raises many questions about the....The Fed is currently ebullient about the state of the economy but that's....2018 is likely to be the best year of growth in the US in years and economists....Consider today's announcement from Goldman Sachs that it is scaling down....What's worrisome is how interest-rate-sensitive areas of the US economy....Auto sales have been weak this year and a big reason why is tighter financing....Signs are also increasing that US housing is sluggish...The home builder ETF fell Monday for the 13th consecutive session and a US 30-....A big mystery of the post-crisis economy is how well consumers can handle higher....The answer is likely to be: not as well as before the crisis...That could ensure the Fed pauses in 2019 before many believe...Here's what Ashraf said 3 years ago about USD performance during Fed....Does the study still hold?..
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Intraday Market Thought: Why USD Rallied on Fed Stmt
by Adam Button | Nov 9, 2018 13:04
The FOMC statement changed almost nothing and yet the US dollar climbed in....Since the start of the Friday FX trading session (as of 10 pm London last night)....nbsp; The euro is weaker after Draghi made a slight dovish shift on Thursday...UK Q3 GDP grew to 1...5% y/y as expected from 1...2% in Q2...US Oct PPI is up next...A new EUR trade was issued ahead of yesterday's Fed statement and a new....The only changes in the FOMC statement were an indication stating that business....Previously it was characterized as strong...Yet the US dollar climbed 20-50 pips across the board in the aftermath...Some of that might have been USD flows that were restrained until after the....FIRST: Heightened certainty of a December rate hike...There was some speculation that the Fed might want to keep its options open....Instead, they continued to categorize growth and employment as strong...SECOND: Over the longer term, the Fed debate shifted to what will happen in....Considering expectations of a tapering in fiscal policy after the Republicans&....If the Fed intends to slow the pace early in 2019, now would have been a....By maintaining the upbeat tone, that's an endorsement of the current pace....Contrarily, Draghi took a small step towards something more dovish...Speaking in Irish parliament he said that the ECB could push out forward....That's a hypothetical and is stating the obvious to some degree but it's....Chartwise, Ashraf suggests that 10-year yields are heading down towards 3...13% to form a right shoulder support (as part of an inverted H&S formation)....This could mean a bounce for the VIX from 16 to 22, implying fresh downside..
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Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Grind Intensifies
by Adam Button | Nov 12, 2018 13:46
Less than 15 minutes before starting to write this IMT, GBPUSD spiked by more....The pound started the week lower as a deal failed to materialized on the....In the Premium Insights, the latest index short extended into the green,....1270...Will EURUSD extend weakness to 1...10 or is it nearing a recovery? This will be covered in today's Premium....Over the last 8 years, the USD Index has ended the month of November higher....Cable started the week down 50 pips on a Times report saying that the EU had....There is also increasing pressure on May to hold her government together and....Juncker said he sees a Brexit deal coming together but time is slowly....USD resumes its climb, dragging EURUSD below 1...1300 as oil prolonged its fall for a record 10th consecutive day (until today)....Saudi Arabia tried to arrest the decline by saying at the weekend's OPEC....There was also talk of a wider OPEC production cut in December...USD/CAD rose to a four-and-a-half month high and will need some help from risk....Note that Monday is a holiday in severall markets, including the US bond....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -47K vs -33K prior...GBP -57K vs -52K prior...JPY -89K vs -92K prior...CHF -20K vs -17K prior...CAD -3K vs -10K prior...AUD -66K vs -70K prior...NZD -26K vs -35K prior....The notable move was in the euro and the short position is now the most-extreme....Some of that undoubtedly reflects a bet that Draghi and the ECB will push out..
