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  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold's Quiet Ascent vs Oil Confusion

    by Adam Button | Apr 6, 2020 14:02
    Gold's Quiet Ascent vs Oil Confusion Chart All currencies are recovering against the US dollar and yen as indices rally....Even GBP is regaining some ground, after having been dragged across the board....Today the PM is said to be in goood spirits...Gold and silver are at the top, while JPY is the weakest...more on gold and silver below)....nbsp; CFTC positioning showed an increasingly-crowded euro trade...The action in metals is far quieter than in energy, but shows a steady run-up in&....The other major weekend developments were at OPEC, where Monday's planned....After the close on Friday Trump said the free market could sort it out in a....Brent and WTI both opened down around 10% but the drama is likely to continue....Several OPEC members have hinted at cooperation and some countries outside....One compelling argument to cut is that even with 10 mbpd less oil on the world....Even without US participation there is a compelling argument to cut because it....For US rivals, they can still bankrupt shale at those levels while cushioning....As we saw last week, it will be a headline-driven market and that's a....Cable fell 40 pips at the open to 1...2230 on news that Johnson was in hospital after 10 days of persistent....A statement said the move was for precautionary reasons but he will spend....There are all kinds of rumors about his health...There are multiple reports from other government officials that he has been....We prefer not to speculate on anyone's health but given the agonizing....As GOLD and SILVER regain their ascent, Ashraf urges you to watch his recent....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +76K vs +61K prior...GBP +5K vs +11K prior...JPY +18K vs +24K prior...CHF +5K vs +5K prior...CAD -22K vs -29K prior...AUD -31K vs -25K prior...NZD -16K vs -16K prior....Euro longs are now at the highest levels since June 2018...Underscoring the shift, as recently as Feb 25, shorts were at -114K...The appetite to bet on the euro now that carry trades have unwound is a bit of a....Otherwise, positioning is about what you would expect.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Retail Traders Forcing the Issue

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 21, 2020 20:22
    Retail Traders Forcing the Issue Chart 3% +(-) days in indices are becoming rarer by the day as authorities do their....in the markets...If reopening the economy is considered to be a near equivalent to monetary....2 trillion stimulus package voted on by the House of Representatives is passed....The Fed certainly agrees...Meanwhile, Monday's announcement by Germany and France to announce a €....As much as these developments are considered to be positive for the....76%....That is not stopping traders from forcing the issue (more below)....اذا كانت هناك صفقة واحدة، ماذا سأختار؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....Don't Force the Market....A common mistake from retail traders (and a recurring error of mine during....Yet, it's crucial to not become too complacent...The last sentence implies a serious balancing act in the face of stark....So far, we have had winning trades in DOW30 on the long and short...But it's not getting any easier...During the 30 mins starting today (Thursday) at 14:20 Eastern Time (New....The selloff was mainly driven by energy and technology...As we enter the final hour of trading, I expect SPX and DOW30 to retest the lows,....The key for Forex traders is to figure out, which pairs to trade and how to....Currently, 5 of our 6 open our Premium Insights trades are in the green, with....There are 2 in FX, 2 in commodities, 1 index and 1 crypto...Join our VIP WhatsApp Broadcast Group..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Emotion Takes Over

    by Adam Button | Jun 8, 2020 12:07
    Emotion Takes Over Chart Emotion is in the streets and the markets, raising that question....The kiwi was the runaway top performer last week while the yen was the laggard...Today, gold and silver are the biggest gainers vs USD, while GBP is the biggest....The Fed and Congress will be spots to watch this week...Emotion is in the streets and it's in the market...Protests raged around the world on the weekend but markets are anything but....The shift to greed from fear has been remarkable and reflects a world in....Fundamentals made a foray into the equation on Friday as the US added 2...5m jobs compared to -7...5m expected...That sent the risk trade into overdrive with the S&P 500 up 2...6% and extended the breakout in 10-year Treasury yields to 0...95%....In FX, examples of the euphoria in markets include the nine-day rally in....The kiwi is in the midst of a seven-day rally...At times like this, you hope to find a trend and hang on for dear life, because....The amplified emotions amplify market moves...Even hedge fund giant Stanley Druckenmiller, who said two weeks ago....nbsp; ....What could end it? Certainly everyone is looking for bad news from the virus as....In the near-term, the Fed meeting Wednesday is a risk...Any sign that the cheap-money party will ever end would be met with some....Congress and stimulus are in focus too with the latest report citing Mitch....That's still a remarkable number at any time in history but it's far....5T package the House passed to tee up some jitters...For now, the party continues...As former Citi CEO Chuck Prince famously said, “As long as the music is....rdquo;CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +81K vs +75K prior...GBP -36K vs -22K prior...JPY +33K vs +35K prior...CHF +9K vs +9K prior...CAD -33K vs -34K prior...AUD -41K vs -40K prior...NZD -13K vs -15K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Pavlovian Powell Play

    by Adam Button | Jun 16, 2020 17:16
    Pavlovian Powell Play Chart Fed Chair Powell stuck to a largely expected rhetoric during his....Powell's testimony lead with indications that the US may be bottoming....He did his best to qwell speculation of negative rates, while admitting they....مستويات المضاربة العرضية...فيديو المشتركين)....Monday's unexpected announcement from the central bank revealed more....Risk trades rebounded after a poor start to the week...Now heavy slate economic data kicks off...The Fed has rolled out an unprecedented number of programs since the start of....On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced it was buying corporate bonds directly...Risk assets jumped and the US dollar sank...Previously the Fed had only been buying corporate bond ETFs...A closer inspection shows that the Fed was mostly doing what was already....When corporate bond buys were announced in March, the plan was always to buy....Effectively the Fed was simply doing what they had already promised to do...Certainly we could take issue the rational...Initially the Fed said “Purchases will be focused on reducing the broad-....rdquo; Corporate spreads are already in-line with that objective, so arguably....Of course, that wouldn't be in-line with Powell's pledge last week to....quot;....So while this wasn't anything new or surprising, the timing was odd...It could have been announced on the weekend or before the market open...Given that this wasn't anything new or material and that the Fed didn't....The automatic risk-on reaction to “Fed” and “bond buying”....There's no deeper strategy...That underscores the emotion in the market and how the narrative can flip....Risk trades were initially bumped higher Monday when Florida rose 2...3%, below the 2...4% average over the past week...nbsp; However note that cases reported Monday have been consistently low....So while cases at 1758 were certainly lower than the 2581 record on Saturday,..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Biden Leads but Questions Remain

    by Adam Button | Nov 5, 2020 18:35
    Biden Leads but Questions Remain Chart There have been big moves in equities and bonds following the US election but....USD selling and indices buying intensified on the inevitable scenario....Ans dont forget Bitcoin, which rallied to $15,300...The FOMC is up next...nbsp; Ashraf is expected to issue a trade after the FOMC stmt and ahead of....nbsp;....Betting markets are giving Biden an 88% chance of taking the White House in a....If he retains the lead in both, he wins...But even if Trump mounts an unanticipated comeback, Biden could win....Aside from the voting uncertainty, Trump has taken his fight to the courts...Legal watchers say his efforts are a longshot but they send a strong signal....The vote also ensures that one side or the other will feel deep disillusion....In terms of legislation, the equity market cheers that there won't be....We always viewed those as longshot outcomes anyway, given the number of....There is some sense of a relief trade but this isn't exactly a clear....That thinking was clear in bonds where Treasury yields fell 14 bps at the long....What comes next is murky and that's reflected in the FX market...AUD/USD was unable to break Tuesday's high and there was sideways trading....It's clear to us that the growth outlook for the US and countries that....But that could be recovered on better China relations...At the same time, the virus still looms and the US hit 100,000 cases for the....In Europe though cases appear to be cresting...In all, the murkiness argues for caution on all fronts in the days ahead...In addition, the ADP jobs data and the employment component of the ISM services....Admittedly though, they haven't been great predictors lately...First, we get the FOMC decision...Given the uncertainty, expect Powell to stick to the script but reminder markets....The election will undoubtedly overshadow it.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Euro's Latest Tug of War & S&P500's Tech Rebound

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 4, 2011 13:42
    Euro eneters a new tug of war, this time between expectations of an ECB rate....Bringing on new trades for EURUSD, EURJPY, S&P500, FTSE-100, Silver, with....Key Daily & Weekly Charts in EURUSD & S&P500 shed light on the technical picture....DIRECT ACCESS http://www...ashraflaidi...com/products/sub01/access/?a=450....NON-PREMIUM Members Join here: http://www...ashraflaidi...com/products/sub01/..

  • Media: Ashraf Laidi 's $1.29 EURUSD Call on CNBC - Forex, Debt

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 3, 2011 2:09

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yellen Autopilot Extends Hammer Candles

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 11, 2014 17:07
    Yellen Autopilot Extends Hammer Candles Chart Yellen's testimony  signals that further tapering remains part and....Yields, yen crosses and equity indices follow up on last week's hammer....Full charts & analysis..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yields' Fake Rally

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 16, 2014 19:26
    Yields' Fake Rally Chart You know there's something inherently wrong with markets when each....Today's remarks fron St Louis Fed's Jim Bullard suggesting the Fed....Greek spreads are back and the yields dwontrend remains intact...Full charts & analysis.

  • Intraday Market Thought: It's China's turn

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 12, 2015 12:32
    It's China's turn Chart Devaluing currencies from the US to Japan, Eurozone and China...Although Japan started zero interest rate policy back in the mid-1990s, for a....Fed in 2009....The Fed's ZIRP began in December 1998, before heading off QE in March....As a result, the US dollar index fell more than 18% on two occasions; in 2009....Japan in 2012....Japan finally succeeded in combatting yen strength by voting in a new Prime....Thanks to two waves of QE in 2013 and 2014, the Bank of Japan's asset....The result was a 32% decline in yen's trade-weighted index and a 60% plunge....Eurozone in 2015....In March 2015, the European Central Bank inaugurated a full scale €1...1tn QE program, at the tune of €60...0 bn in monthly purchases of public and private sector assets until September....The program aimed primarily at reversing deflation and easing financial....China in 2015....This week, the China reported the 9th consecutive monthly decline in imports....With most business surveys indicating a contraction, China's economic....nbsp;After weakening the yuan by nearly 3% earlier in the year, the People's....nbsp;But the rising dollar made things worse...Yesterday's yuan 1...9% devaluation and today's subsequent 1...5% decline means that 5% depreciation is inevitable...Any devaluation greater than 7%-10% would be a serious threat for global....Let's not forget the CNY appreciated 11% after the 2008-9 crises and that it....A CNY decline of such magnitude could occur if China mismanages the balance....Another risk to such balance would be renewed Chinese data disappointments and....The likelihood of all this materializing is about 40%....Yuan manipulation?....With regards to accusations against China continuing to manipulate its....This is no longer 2005 or 2006, when minimal revaluations were dwarfed by....The currency may not fully function according to perfect market forces, but....During that time, China GDP slowed from 10% to 7%, exports fell from a rate of....The IMF and most economists deem the  yuan to be overvalued against the..
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