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Results: 661 to 670 of 1,000
Results: 661 to 670 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields' Fake Rally
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 16, 2014 19:26
You know there's something inherently wrong with markets when each....Today's remarks fron St Louis Fed's Jim Bullard suggesting the Fed....Greek spreads are back and the yields dwontrend remains intact...Full charts & analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: It's China's turn
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 12, 2015 12:32
Devaluing currencies from the US to Japan, Eurozone and China...Although Japan started zero interest rate policy back in the mid-1990s, for a....Fed in 2009....The Fed's ZIRP began in December 1998, before heading off QE in March....As a result, the US dollar index fell more than 18% on two occasions; in 2009....Japan in 2012....Japan finally succeeded in combatting yen strength by voting in a new Prime....Thanks to two waves of QE in 2013 and 2014, the Bank of Japan's asset....The result was a 32% decline in yen's trade-weighted index and a 60% plunge....Eurozone in 2015....In March 2015, the European Central Bank inaugurated a full scale €1...1tn QE program, at the tune of €60...0 bn in monthly purchases of public and private sector assets until September....The program aimed primarily at reversing deflation and easing financial....China in 2015....This week, the China reported the 9th consecutive monthly decline in imports....With most business surveys indicating a contraction, China's economic....nbsp;After weakening the yuan by nearly 3% earlier in the year, the People's....nbsp;But the rising dollar made things worse...Yesterday's yuan 1...9% devaluation and today's subsequent 1...5% decline means that 5% depreciation is inevitable...Any devaluation greater than 7%-10% would be a serious threat for global....Let's not forget the CNY appreciated 11% after the 2008-9 crises and that it....A CNY decline of such magnitude could occur if China mismanages the balance....Another risk to such balance would be renewed Chinese data disappointments and....The likelihood of all this materializing is about 40%....Yuan manipulation?....With regards to accusations against China continuing to manipulate its....This is no longer 2005 or 2006, when minimal revaluations were dwarfed by....The currency may not fully function according to perfect market forces, but....During that time, China GDP slowed from 10% to 7%, exports fell from a rate of....The IMF and most economists deem the yuan to be overvalued against the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Why has Druckenmiller Dived in Gold & Copper
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 17, 2015 2:49
Four weeks after gold tumbled to 5-year lows on revelation of far lower Chinese....He also loaded up on 2 large miners...Stan Druckenmiller's family office, Duquesne Capital Management, bought 2...9 mn shares of SPDR Gold Trust's GLD ETF, worth $323...6 million at the end of June, according to the Securities and Exchange....Duquesne's gold ETF purchase bumped the fund's Facebook holdings off the....47 bn fund...nbsp; ....Druckenmiller acted as George Soros' chief strategist when he helped....Since its inception in 1986, Duquesne has had an average return of 30% per....nbsp; In early May, Druckenmiller told Bloomberg in May that interest rates....nbsp;....Druckenmiller vs Paulson....Despite the scale and timing of Druckenmiller's gold position, it....The fact that Druckenmiller has also purchased 1...28 mn shares of gold miner Newmont Mining and 3...6 mn shares of copper giant Freeport-McMorcan in the same quarter could....In contrast to Druckenmiller, John Paulson, the biggest holder of the GLD....While Paulson is the biggest owner of GLD, accounting 4% of the ETF, the fund....More importantly, Paulson's gold selling is a result of forced....As John Paulson is quietly planning an exit out of his gold holdings,..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's London Seminar this Saturday
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 22, 2016 13:56Ashraf's London seminar at XTB's Trading Masterclass on Saturday, Feb 27...You are invited to attend Ashraf's speech at XTB's London headquarters....Ashraf will join a special guest speakers to share his experience on....An interactive Q&A session will follow...At XTB's Trading Masterclass, you will:....Engage in an interactive Q&A session with professional traders...See expert investors analysing markets in real-time...Learn how to apply multiple time-frames of analysis to your strategies...To reserve your place, please click here. -
Intraday Market Thought: Gold & USDJPY Eye 76.4%
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 23, 2016 17:14
As gold and USD/JPY near their 76...4% retracement, questions about their similarity and differences resurface...Gold's 76...4% retracement of the rise from the December 2015 lows to the July 2016....50...Historic 76%....Over the last 15 years, never has gold retraced more than 76...4% of a major rally or decline of 25% or more...Similarly, USD/JPY has never retraced more than 76...4% of a major rally or decline of 25% or more...The definition of “major” means that the move begins from a multi-....Does this mean that gold is near the low and USDJPY is approaching its peak?....A new note on gold and USDJPY has been issued to susbcribers alongside this..
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Intraday Market Thought: Germany Steps Forward, US Steps Back
by Adam Button | Jan 22, 2018 10:47
The German SPD voted to enter coalition talks with Merkel's Christian....The US dollar, meanwhile, is under pressure after Republicans and Democrats....CFTC positioning data showed euro longs easing from their record high...The euro gapped +50 pips higher to 1...2270s at the weekly open as Merkel aims to end the uncertainty in German....There is no guarantee of a deal but the SPD delegates voted 362-279 to enter....The news isn't a big surprise and shouldn't be a lasting factor but it&....It's just the opposite in the US where Congress delivered a self-....The US dollar is softer across the board early but expect the market to take it....The previous shutdown lasted 16 days and markets shrugged off the effects...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +139K vs +145K prior...GBP +26K vs +26K prior...JPY -119K vs -126K prior...CAD +18K vs +17K prior...CHF -21K vs -22K prior...AUD +10K vs -5K prior...NZD -8K vs -11K prior....The market is reluctant to embrace cable longs...Despite the impressive run lately, the looming risk of negative Brexit....Euro longs edged back from record extremes but overall moves were small.
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Intraday Market Thought: Calm Returns, Where to Watch
by Adam Button | Feb 13, 2018 13:26
Just as bloogers and analysts began writing about Monday's sharp market....One relationship that's increasingly taking hold is the inverse relation....Interestingly, USD remained weak despite the overnight sell-off in Tokyo and....JPY, EUR and CHF are the strongest, while GBP backs off its highs following....120 pip gain was locked in the EURUSD trade...إلى أين الارتداد؟ (فيديو للمشتركين)....One clue on whether Monday's bounce will last was in the announcement of a....It surely faces a tough test in Congress but it highlights the administrations....It came along with fresh White House projections which are undoubtedly....With the potential for more stimulus in the pipeline and continued high military....US 10-year yields ticked another basis point higher Monday to 2...86% and as high as 2...89%....There is a sudden focus on borrowing levels and it seems almost inevitably....A pair of big drivers towards or away from that level is likely on Wednesday..
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Intraday Market Thought: Into ECB & NAFTA
by Adam Button | Mar 8, 2018 12:40Markets stabilise on reports that Trump will expempt NAFTA countries from....As we move to the ECB press conference, all currencies are down against the USD....Draghi's press conference will focus on the ECB's latest revisions for....EURUSD pushed higher after the ECB rates announcement removed the reference to....The focus was squarely on the Canadian dollar on Wednesday and it delivered a....The loonie slumped after the Bank of Canada highlighted trade worries and....A s a result USD/CAD climbed to 1...3000 from 1...2910...But some of those worries may be quickly calmed if reports that Trump will....The market reacted by erasing the move in USD/CAD and sending it back to 1...2900...The possibility of a waiver was something we warned about yesterday...The that shift also helped stock markets recover into a flat close...In the bigger picture, the landscape remains deeply unsettled...Relief for Canada and Mexico might be coming but that leaves the rest of the....Cohn's exit may also highlight that tariffs and are part of a broader White....Another troubling development was an increase in the US trade deficit in....6B compared to $55...0B expected, including a record in the deficit excluding petroleum...The sharp deterioration in the past four months suggests the tax cut funds are....In turn, that will make Trump more likely to take dramatic actions on trade. -
Intraday Market Thought: USD Grinds Lower Pre CPI
by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2018 22:02
The ebb in the US dollar continued Monday as the fallout from non-farm....CHF was Tuesday's top performer, while CAD...Australian home loans data highlights the Asia-Pacific session...فيديو للمشتركين حول ال 11صفقة...The absence of economic data for North American traders kept the focus on....Finance Minister Aso is embroiled in a real estate scandal and that's....Aso is considering not attending this month's G20 meeting...Meanwhile, the ebb and flow of Brexit news gave the pound a lift and cable is....Politics were largely a non-factor and US stock markets were flat...Trump is reportedly interviewing Larry Kudlow to lead his economic team...He is an unabashed free trader and is strongly anti-tariff so that would be a....Looking ahead, January Australian home loans data is due at 0030 GMT and....2% after a 2...3% drop in December...AUD has been a strong performer since Friday and is trading at a two-week high...The rebound comes after a miserable February but the RBA is slowly growing....The flipside is that commodities are beginning to struggle...Iron ore has fallen in seven consecutive sessions as uncertainty on steel mounts.
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Intraday Market Thought: Selling in May the Italian Way
by Adam Button | May 29, 2018 11:46
Global markets selloff across the board as Italy's political uncertainty....Italian 2-year yields hit a 6-year highs as bond prices tumbled, EURUSD broke....16 to a fresh 10 month lows, while the yen soared against all currencies,....40...Initially, markets cheered when Italy's President rejected euroskeptic....After climbing to 1...1730 the euro sank to a fresh six-month low of 1...1604, stopping out the Premium EURUSD trade...A new JPY trade will be issued shortly...The market selloffs were amplified by thinned activity during the holidays in....Former IMF economist Carlo Cottarelli has been asked by Italy's president....Five-Star Leader Di Maio has called for protests on June 2 and new elections as....nbsp; Both parties will frame a new vote as upstarts versus the establishment....At best, the outcome is uncertain and the threat of protests and unrests....Markets tend to bottom when the light at the end of the tunnel is in sight but....Another move in thin trading Monday was a rise in USD/CAD above 1...3000 for the first time in two months...Oil prices were down another 2% and that was the main driver but the market is..
