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  • Intraday Market Thought: Systemic Risks are here

    by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2020 23:50
    Systemic Risks are here Chart And it finally happened; major US indices fell 10% in a single day, the....Coronavirus is illustrating how quickly a real-world crisis can morph into a....The Fed's emergency liquidity-creation move, return to QE and the....nbsp; The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the pound....The GBP and Bitcoin trades were stopped out...A new Premium video has been posted below, highlighting the core of our high-....A major theme in the post-financial crisis era in the markets has been the....The risk is that liquidity has turned into leverage and the breathtaking speed....The emergency move from the Fed today was ominous...Five minutes before a 30-year bond auction the Fed announced a $1...5 trillion term-lending program...To put that into perspective, after two years of QE in 2011, the total size of....1 trillion...Moreover, the Fed announced that in just 35 minutes it would be auctioning $500B....That final detail is key...A same-day settlement suggests someone needed money asap...Financial institutions need to balance the books at end-of-day and needed to....The Fed itself said this was due to short-term Treasury market liquidity....Spreads were widening and the cross-currency swaps market wasn't....Given the rout in European banks, that suggests problems could be there...Of course, this is all speculation...The larger point is that we are all currently focused on the direct impacts....The combined opacity of that and the extreme unknows surrounding the virus..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD?

    by Adam Button | Mar 23, 2020 23:47
    Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD? Chart Finally, the Federal Reserve went way beyond anything it had done previously....The kneejerk reaction was to sell the US dollar but that move faded and that may....Congress still failing to reach a deal, forcing stocks lower until the last half....The UK announced a full lockdown with cable near 35-year lows...A new non-FX non-Indices Premium trade was issued today...13 is the number of Fed stimulus programs and actions, created so far....It included unlimited QE in government-backed debt at $125B per week, corporate....The shock from the program initially weighed on the US dollar, but over time....A risk in evaluating this crisis is looking at it from a US or European....It's truly a global event...The moves will ease funding stress, but by underwriting credit risk, the Fed....Contrast that with emerging and developed market central banks that don&....Even if the moves eventually help to draw a line under US equities, that will....Could the US dollar continue to hold firm despite further gold gains in the....In the UK, Boris Johnson announced a three-week complete lockdown of the....It marks a turnaround in policy from a week ago and will mean a severe short-....Cable remains severely oversold but is trying to carve out a bottom at 1...1400...Watch that level...Looking forward, the day ahead will feature a continued close watch on US....The latest price tag is an astonishing $2...5 trillion, which will likely push the budget deficit above $4 trillion this....In terms of getting it done, it's always questionable to bet money on....In terms of data, the March prelim Markit manufacturing and services....Those should provide an early look at how hard shutdowns are hitting but be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Month End, Beginning of the End?

    by Adam Button | Mar 27, 2020 1:43
    Month End, Beginning of the End? Chart Markets brushed off a massive number of US unemployment claims in a sign that....Sterling was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Weekend risk looms...Wednesday's Premium trade is +280 pips in the green...A new trade in the Premium Insights went into after the NY Thursday close...US initial jobless claims soared to a record 3...283 million compared to 281K the week before and sashing the 1982 record of....It was a harrowing number but risk trades climbed on the headlines...We warned yesterday that even a number in the 2-3m range might be seen as good....Evidently a number even slightly higher than that was enough to satisfy bargain....In terms of the coronavirus, the US is now the epicenter of the outbreak with....That also didn't derail the risk trade and the DJIA gained 6...4% in its largest 3-day rally since 1933...Part of the moves are clearly a sign of relief that the government and central....Markets were on the brink of a freeze-up and meltdown earlier in the month and....That's some reason for celebration...We also highlighted month and quarter-end rebalancing earlier in the week...Given the drop in stocks and rally in bonds, balanced funds need to adjust....Estimates were for $240B in flows but talk of it was widespread and at some....There are currently 6 existing trades open in the Premium Insights, 2 in FX, 1....Each of the 6 trades is currently in the  green...Another clear sign that liquidity conditions have improved is the fall in....It sank across the board Thursday and the beaten-down pound was particularly....2175...The calendar is the main obstacle in the day ahead...We've seen epic selloffs and squeezes into recent weekends...Markets shouldn't be under any illusions that cases will continue to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide

    by Adam Button | Apr 14, 2020 19:45
    Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide Chart Gold broke the March highs to resume its rally for the 4th straight day, hitting....USD funding stress eased further, prompting traders to revert towards....Silver continue to rise vs Gold and USD as XAGUSD further broke Feb trendline....especially as the US deficit is widely estimated to reach $3...8 trillion this year with debt hitting 100% of GDP...As equities show more optimism on slowing growth of corona virus cases,....Oil extended its decline as markets returned from Easter Holiday, with US....30...Oil pushed higher early Sunday night, only to get slammed back down and then....But Tuesday proved a different story amid doubts with China's demand...Virus news was largely more of the same but some talk of lifting some lockdown....Today's rally in equities was led by consumer discretionary stocks and....The notable directional move came in gold as it rose above the March highs to....The reality of central bank balance sheets and government deficits is....Overlooked is that the worst-case virus scenarios have probably been avoided....That diminishes the risk of liquidation of gold reserves, at least for now...Technically, gold shows little major resistance until the all-time highs...Futures also continue to trade at a premium to spot in what's likely a..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Can't Quit Now

    by Adam Button | Jun 10, 2020 15:45
    Fed Can't Quit Now Chart The FOMC decision on Wednesday is a chance to see whether Powell will shy....Expect surging volatility in FX and indices following the Fed dot plots and....US CPI posted its 3rd consecutive monthly drop...All currencies are up against the US dollar with the exception of CAD...nbsp; 4 of the 5 Premium trades currently open are in the  green...Below is the video for Premium susbcribers...nbsp;....The equity market has undoubtedly gotten ahead of itself but the question the....The countless programs, bailouts, QE, ZIRP and junk bond buying halted the....But those things are also a great help to the economy, workers and home prices...Any kind of a hint in unwinding those programs would take some of the air out....So the message Wednesday is likely to be the same as it was April 29 when the....S...economy...rdquo; The added wrinkle this time is that economic projections are due...Those were cancelled in March so we have to go back to December when the....0% growth this year...That's out the window and so is the 3...5% unemployment rate...Less important than the numbers themselves will be how the Fed frames....If Powell says the rebound has been surprisingly strong and the bottom not....The caveat would be that if he emphasized that they will let the....Also, keep an eye on any hints regarding yield curve control and whether Powell....As for the market reaction, it will be an important test for dollar weakness,....If the Fed doesn't inspire a strong reversal, then those trends will be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Sterling Sinks, Quadruple Witch Ahead

    by Adam Button | Jun 19, 2020 12:09
    Sterling Sinks, Quadruple Witch Ahead Chart The pound remains the worst performing currency for the 2nd straight day after....Traders have not abandoned the idea of negative BoE rates once the govt....The latest debt figures showing UK debt/GDP exceeding 100% of GDP for the 1st....nbsp; EURGBP and GBPUSD are in flux...Canadian retail sales are up next...More importantly, it is quadruple witching hour today...nbsp;A new Premium trade was issued on Thursday...Ashraf touted selling GBP ahead of the Bank of England decision and that proved....Cable breaks below the May trendline support, while EURGBP takes out the....nbsp;....The drop highlighted the importance of technicals in the market...There was nothing surprising or particularly negative for the pound from....On both the decision headlines and newswire comments from Bailey, the bulls....Bids at 1...2400 and 55-dam at 1...2413 finally halted a decline and those will be key levels to watch in the day....nbsp; A break could open up a further quick fall to 1...2280...The other side of the equation is the US dollar and it was broadly stronger on....That didn't spill over to equities but massive volumes of expiring options....Be cognizant that the latest equity rout was preceded by risk aversion in stocks....Quadruple Witching & gold....The quarterly expiration of index, options and futures expiration is due....US indices are all pointing higher, but it's crucial how we close the week...And take a look at XAUUSD, testing its trend line resistance...A break towards 1745 is in the cards...nbsp;....For Canada, the retail sales report is for April so it will be less insightful....Aside from that, we continue to watch climbing state virus numbers...There wasn't a sharp acceleration in most metrics but California, Arizona,..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Poster Child of FX Technicals

    by Adam Button | Jun 23, 2020 23:10
    Poster Child of FX Technicals Chart The US dollar was singled out for selling on Tuesday but the overall....The euro continued preserved its role as the posterchild of technical trading,....Coronavirus worries continue to weigh...The NASDAQ trade was stopped out, while the gold long reached $5 away of the....It's time for a non-idices Wednesday trade...nbsp; Below is the English-Arabic Premium video detailing the technical....بين المضاربة و التداول الاستراتيجي...We wrote earlier this week about the case for unique dollar selling outside....USD/JPY was hit particularly hard even as risk trades advanced...There was talk of Softbank flows related to the divesture of T-Mobile shares but....The lone exception was CAD, which was hit by new aluminum tariff talk and a....Economic data was mostly positive as European PMIs roundly beat expectations...The US Markit data was less upbeat with manufacturing at 49...6 compared to 50...0 expected and services at 46...7 compared to 48...0 expected...However new home sales were significantly stronger than anticipated...EURUSD has so far respected a technical trend seen during the 2017 bull market,....0% on average...nbsp;....The early mood in the market was good...There were dips in sentiment as virus cases rolled in but it wasn't until....Importantly, the S&P 500 also failed at 3155, which was the June 19 high...DOW30 failed its 200 DMA, coinciding with a well known TA formation in the....more in the video)....The Texas data is particularly troubling because along with a record 5489 cases....3% day-on-day...Houston-area officials are warning that ICU beds are nearing capacity...In general, US markets managed to look past virus data but – like in Feb/....This time, though it's a uniquely US situation and whether that leaves an..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Polling Points, Stress Tests & Tech Issues

    by Adam Button | Jun 26, 2020 19:06
    Month-end flows dynamics, rebalancing of Russel indices and resurfacing doubts....But it's also time to start mentioning the US election and the possible risks....Ashraf mentioned that a rare event in a major currency pair is undergoing as we....Such event is identical in terms of time and price symmetry to the last time it....He's shared the idea preliminarily with the WhatsApp Broadcast Group and....The most important levels to watch ahead of Friday's close is the S&P500's....30 and EURUSD 1...1190...One potentially negative aspect for indices is the 10-yr yield's break below....68%, which could trigger further selling if 0...60% is taken out...But the gold implications for such an event are largely positive...Trump's only consistent message is that he will not or cannot afford to leave....Trump reiterated today that the phase-one trade deal with China was “....This means that technology stocks could be the first to gain from a confirmed....Stimulus replaces lockdown...Another positive emerges from reports of discussions between the Trump....Ashraf mentioned that the administration's willingness to resist any lockdown....These would be considered a double-positive shock for the economy...Or at least an attempt to do so...Polling Thoughts...The market has plenty to focus on at the moment and the US election isn't until....There is a clear shift towards Biden in a series of polls, with some major ones....No one needs a reminder of the polling surprises in recent years so pricing in....The risk here is the polls themselves...Trump is highly attuned to polls and the near-term risk is that he grows....It's unclear how that would manifest itself but ramping up the trade war..

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Shrugs Off Deficit & Why GBP

    by Adam Button | Jul 9, 2020 12:54
    CAD Shrugs Off Deficit & Why GBP Chart Another day, another slide for the US dollar as risk appetite remains neutral....USDX sustained 4 straight monthly declines, the last 3 of which are the....nbsp;  Wednesday's Canada deficit numbers were a reminder....nbsp;GBP is the day's top performer, while the US dollar lagged as it....US weekly jobless claims are up next and are forecast to remain above 1 mln...Two Premium FX trades were issued yesteday, one of which is GBPUSD....Ashraf explained in yesterday's Premium video why he would issue the....2520...nbsp; ....Leaks suggesting a +$300B fiscal deficit in Canada late Wednesday were borne out....The numbers were wholly unexpected but the way the loonie shrugged off the....Morneau also offered no commentary on when a return to something resembling a....USD/CAD fell a full cent on the day to hit a two-week low...It also briefly broke the 200-dma near 1...3500...The fresh 9-year high in gold at $1808 also underscored the market's....There is no end in sight to government spending anywhere...In the UK Wednesday, Chancellor Sunak rolled out another round of targeted....The broad market shrugged off a record number of virus cases in the US as well...Tech remains in a roaring bull market and Chinese shares – particularly....If the positive sentiment can last through Friday then the case for more....Up next is the main US economic release is weekly initial jobless claims...The consensus is for another 1...375m applications for unemployment benefits...The numbers remain staggeringly high but the market has shrugged off..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Silver, USD Near Inflection Points

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 20, 2020 18:26
    Silver, USD Near Inflection Points Chart GBP, silver and NASDAQ are in control of FX, commodities and indices on due to a....AstraZeneca broadened optimism after positive results from early vaccine....Euro remained supported after the 4 holdout EU nations agreed over EUR 380....EU US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Senate Majority Leader McConnell are....Silver hit a 4-year high as Gold/Silver ratio broke below its 10-month trendline....USDX deepens its selloff, with 95...80 and 1190 acting as crucial support on USDX and Bloomberg USDX Index....More key market levels are listed below...Austria, Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden have agreed that the EU's EUR 750....It all changed for EURUSD on June 23rd when it held the 1...1180s upon Germany's proposed stimulus...It was on June 23rd when Ashraf called mentioned EURUSD's technical....Key market levels....US Crude oil sustains the 38...30-41...50s range highlighted in here while DOW30 continue to fail the top of the....Premium Insights' subscribers were issued a long on XAGUSD at 15...20/50 on May 7th, days before the Gold/Silver ratio broke below 100...The trade hit its final target at 18...30 on June 1st...nbsp; ..
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