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  • Intraday Market Thought: Virus Inflection Point

    by Adam Button | Feb 10, 2020 16:55
    Virus Inflection Point Chart China has taken unprecedented steps to halt what surely would have been a....Markets are rallying on reports that FoxConn has received approval to re-open....The chart below suggests that markets may also be starting to focus on the....Higher China CPI to start the week sparked some worries about PBOC....Fed chair Powell will testify to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday...As coronavirus case hit 40,000 and deaths surpass SARS, the market remains....Incredible, if not draconian, measures by Chinese officials have slowed the....Yet as we learn more about the virus and some parts of China head back to work,....New daily cases have leveled off around 3000 in recent days and that's cause....Skeptics might conclude that testing capability is strained and that would-be....Rumors are rampant but the market has been trading on official news and hasn&....The week ahead will be a major test because parts of China's economy....One area to watch particularly closely is Indonesia...All its neighbours have cases and travel patterns show there should be some....Recovery and countermeasures....Nervousness re-emerged from the World Health Organization on concerns over the....But reports from the central govt announcing it will spend over $10....The PBOC is also said to start injecting the first part of re-lending facilities....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -75K vs -59K prior...GBP +13K vs +18K prior...JPY -21K vs -36K prior...CHF +5K vs +3...5 prior...CAD +19K vs +35K prior...AUD -43K vs -27K prior...NZD -2K vs +2K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Euro Keeps on Falling

    by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2020 16:37
    Before we cover the euro, we must give mention to the yen's breakdown as....10 resistance to a 9-month high of 111...32...The move emerges alongside a new high in the SP500 and DAX30, while DOW30....China's annnouncement of further support for affected supply chains has....The USDJPY short was finally stopped out as stops cascaded through 111...30s...CAD and EUR are the only gainers vs the strengthening USD...US building permits were string but housing starts fell...Canada CPI was mixed...All eyes turn to the FOMC minutes and any new insights on the Fed's....A new Premium trade has been issued to clients in a non-FX markets, backed by 3....EUR/USD is up today, but has fallen in 3 out of the last 13 sessions...The euro has fallen virtually every day this month and the number one reason is....The 'expectations' component of Tuesday's ZEW sentiment survey fell to +8...7 from +26...7; far short of the +21...5 consensus in the latest example...Another factor is that the euro has solidified itself as a low-yielder,....Bloomberg highlighted how single-A rated LVMH was able to launch the largest....Those borrowing conditions are going to entice foreign companies to borrow in....The third crucial factor is China...Owing to the trade war, China-US trade has been the focus of the past two years....Europe is highly-dependent on exports to China and its slate of exports –....In short, Europe is more vulnerable to coronavirus weakness than some other....Finally and critically, the eurozone has hamstrung its ability to respond to an....Markets are increasingly convinced that any economic weakness in the US, China,....That's not the case for the eurozone...Along the same lines, the FOMC minutes are due at 1900 GMT and could offer....The market is now pricing in an 82% chance of a cut in July.

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Coronavirus Positioning

    by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2020 16:02
    The Coronavirus Positioning Chart Markets gets caught in a fresh round of selling after a brief reprive in early....VIX pushing to 24...87, DOW30 eyes the Dec 3rd low and SPX nears the 100-DMA of 3164...GBP is the best performer, followed by JPY and CHF...No one wants to see a global pandemic but experts and the market are....If it comes, which global assets will suffer and which ones will appreciate?....تطبيق التوازن بين الخوف و الطمع (فيديو للمشتركين)....On Monday the market got a taste of what the pandemic trade may look like as....We have repeatedly highlighted the bond market as a spot to watch and it was the....It may also be just a taste of what's next with a Fed cut in April now....If a pandemic hits, the Fed will likely cut all the way to zero and pull rates....In times of trouble, bonds are always a clear winner...That isn't always the case for gold and precious metals but it will be this....Technically, gold has broken out in a big way and there is little resistance....In FX, we may have gotten a taste of the trade Monday as the yen led the way and....Last week's squeeze on the yen raised some Japan-specific risks and....The other side of that trade is equally interesting...The loonie has held up well recently compared to AUD and NZD but that may....The latest South Korea business sentiment survey may offer a hint of....It fell on Tuesday to 84...4 from 92...0.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Systemic Risks are here

    by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2020 23:50
    Systemic Risks are here Chart And it finally happened; major US indices fell 10% in a single day, the....Coronavirus is illustrating how quickly a real-world crisis can morph into a....The Fed's emergency liquidity-creation move, return to QE and the....nbsp; The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the pound....The GBP and Bitcoin trades were stopped out...A new Premium video has been posted below, highlighting the core of our high-....A major theme in the post-financial crisis era in the markets has been the....The risk is that liquidity has turned into leverage and the breathtaking speed....The emergency move from the Fed today was ominous...Five minutes before a 30-year bond auction the Fed announced a $1...5 trillion term-lending program...To put that into perspective, after two years of QE in 2011, the total size of....1 trillion...Moreover, the Fed announced that in just 35 minutes it would be auctioning $500B....That final detail is key...A same-day settlement suggests someone needed money asap...Financial institutions need to balance the books at end-of-day and needed to....The Fed itself said this was due to short-term Treasury market liquidity....Spreads were widening and the cross-currency swaps market wasn't....Given the rout in European banks, that suggests problems could be there...Of course, this is all speculation...The larger point is that we are all currently focused on the direct impacts....The combined opacity of that and the extreme unknows surrounding the virus..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD?

    by Adam Button | Mar 23, 2020 23:47
    Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD? Chart Finally, the Federal Reserve went way beyond anything it had done previously....The kneejerk reaction was to sell the US dollar but that move faded and that may....Congress still failing to reach a deal, forcing stocks lower until the last half....The UK announced a full lockdown with cable near 35-year lows...A new non-FX non-Indices Premium trade was issued today...13 is the number of Fed stimulus programs and actions, created so far....It included unlimited QE in government-backed debt at $125B per week, corporate....The shock from the program initially weighed on the US dollar, but over time....A risk in evaluating this crisis is looking at it from a US or European....It's truly a global event...The moves will ease funding stress, but by underwriting credit risk, the Fed....Contrast that with emerging and developed market central banks that don&....Even if the moves eventually help to draw a line under US equities, that will....Could the US dollar continue to hold firm despite further gold gains in the....In the UK, Boris Johnson announced a three-week complete lockdown of the....It marks a turnaround in policy from a week ago and will mean a severe short-....Cable remains severely oversold but is trying to carve out a bottom at 1...1400...Watch that level...Looking forward, the day ahead will feature a continued close watch on US....The latest price tag is an astonishing $2...5 trillion, which will likely push the budget deficit above $4 trillion this....In terms of getting it done, it's always questionable to bet money on....In terms of data, the March prelim Markit manufacturing and services....Those should provide an early look at how hard shutdowns are hitting but be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Month End, Beginning of the End?

    by Adam Button | Mar 27, 2020 1:43
    Month End, Beginning of the End? Chart Markets brushed off a massive number of US unemployment claims in a sign that....Sterling was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Weekend risk looms...Wednesday's Premium trade is +280 pips in the green...A new trade in the Premium Insights went into after the NY Thursday close...US initial jobless claims soared to a record 3...283 million compared to 281K the week before and sashing the 1982 record of....It was a harrowing number but risk trades climbed on the headlines...We warned yesterday that even a number in the 2-3m range might be seen as good....Evidently a number even slightly higher than that was enough to satisfy bargain....In terms of the coronavirus, the US is now the epicenter of the outbreak with....That also didn't derail the risk trade and the DJIA gained 6...4% in its largest 3-day rally since 1933...Part of the moves are clearly a sign of relief that the government and central....Markets were on the brink of a freeze-up and meltdown earlier in the month and....That's some reason for celebration...We also highlighted month and quarter-end rebalancing earlier in the week...Given the drop in stocks and rally in bonds, balanced funds need to adjust....Estimates were for $240B in flows but talk of it was widespread and at some....There are currently 6 existing trades open in the Premium Insights, 2 in FX, 1....Each of the 6 trades is currently in the  green...Another clear sign that liquidity conditions have improved is the fall in....It sank across the board Thursday and the beaten-down pound was particularly....2175...The calendar is the main obstacle in the day ahead...We've seen epic selloffs and squeezes into recent weekends...Markets shouldn't be under any illusions that cases will continue to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide

    by Adam Button | Apr 14, 2020 19:45
    Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide Chart Gold broke the March highs to resume its rally for the 4th straight day, hitting....USD funding stress eased further, prompting traders to revert towards....Silver continue to rise vs Gold and USD as XAGUSD further broke Feb trendline....especially as the US deficit is widely estimated to reach $3...8 trillion this year with debt hitting 100% of GDP...As equities show more optimism on slowing growth of corona virus cases,....Oil extended its decline as markets returned from Easter Holiday, with US....30...Oil pushed higher early Sunday night, only to get slammed back down and then....But Tuesday proved a different story amid doubts with China's demand...Virus news was largely more of the same but some talk of lifting some lockdown....Today's rally in equities was led by consumer discretionary stocks and....The notable directional move came in gold as it rose above the March highs to....The reality of central bank balance sheets and government deficits is....Overlooked is that the worst-case virus scenarios have probably been avoided....That diminishes the risk of liquidation of gold reserves, at least for now...Technically, gold shows little major resistance until the all-time highs...Futures also continue to trade at a premium to spot in what's likely a..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Can't Quit Now

    by Adam Button | Jun 10, 2020 15:45
    Fed Can't Quit Now Chart The FOMC decision on Wednesday is a chance to see whether Powell will shy....Expect surging volatility in FX and indices following the Fed dot plots and....US CPI posted its 3rd consecutive monthly drop...All currencies are up against the US dollar with the exception of CAD...nbsp; 4 of the 5 Premium trades currently open are in the  green...Below is the video for Premium susbcribers...nbsp;....The equity market has undoubtedly gotten ahead of itself but the question the....The countless programs, bailouts, QE, ZIRP and junk bond buying halted the....But those things are also a great help to the economy, workers and home prices...Any kind of a hint in unwinding those programs would take some of the air out....So the message Wednesday is likely to be the same as it was April 29 when the....S...economy...rdquo; The added wrinkle this time is that economic projections are due...Those were cancelled in March so we have to go back to December when the....0% growth this year...That's out the window and so is the 3...5% unemployment rate...Less important than the numbers themselves will be how the Fed frames....If Powell says the rebound has been surprisingly strong and the bottom not....The caveat would be that if he emphasized that they will let the....Also, keep an eye on any hints regarding yield curve control and whether Powell....As for the market reaction, it will be an important test for dollar weakness,....If the Fed doesn't inspire a strong reversal, then those trends will be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Sterling Sinks, Quadruple Witch Ahead

    by Adam Button | Jun 19, 2020 12:09
    Sterling Sinks, Quadruple Witch Ahead Chart The pound remains the worst performing currency for the 2nd straight day after....Traders have not abandoned the idea of negative BoE rates once the govt....The latest debt figures showing UK debt/GDP exceeding 100% of GDP for the 1st....nbsp; EURGBP and GBPUSD are in flux...Canadian retail sales are up next...More importantly, it is quadruple witching hour today...nbsp;A new Premium trade was issued on Thursday...Ashraf touted selling GBP ahead of the Bank of England decision and that proved....Cable breaks below the May trendline support, while EURGBP takes out the....nbsp;....The drop highlighted the importance of technicals in the market...There was nothing surprising or particularly negative for the pound from....On both the decision headlines and newswire comments from Bailey, the bulls....Bids at 1...2400 and 55-dam at 1...2413 finally halted a decline and those will be key levels to watch in the day....nbsp; A break could open up a further quick fall to 1...2280...The other side of the equation is the US dollar and it was broadly stronger on....That didn't spill over to equities but massive volumes of expiring options....Be cognizant that the latest equity rout was preceded by risk aversion in stocks....Quadruple Witching & gold....The quarterly expiration of index, options and futures expiration is due....US indices are all pointing higher, but it's crucial how we close the week...And take a look at XAUUSD, testing its trend line resistance...A break towards 1745 is in the cards...nbsp;....For Canada, the retail sales report is for April so it will be less insightful....Aside from that, we continue to watch climbing state virus numbers...There wasn't a sharp acceleration in most metrics but California, Arizona,..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Poster Child of FX Technicals

    by Adam Button | Jun 23, 2020 23:10
    Poster Child of FX Technicals Chart The US dollar was singled out for selling on Tuesday but the overall....The euro continued preserved its role as the posterchild of technical trading,....Coronavirus worries continue to weigh...The NASDAQ trade was stopped out, while the gold long reached $5 away of the....It's time for a non-idices Wednesday trade...nbsp; Below is the English-Arabic Premium video detailing the technical....بين المضاربة و التداول الاستراتيجي...We wrote earlier this week about the case for unique dollar selling outside....USD/JPY was hit particularly hard even as risk trades advanced...There was talk of Softbank flows related to the divesture of T-Mobile shares but....The lone exception was CAD, which was hit by new aluminum tariff talk and a....Economic data was mostly positive as European PMIs roundly beat expectations...The US Markit data was less upbeat with manufacturing at 49...6 compared to 50...0 expected and services at 46...7 compared to 48...0 expected...However new home sales were significantly stronger than anticipated...EURUSD has so far respected a technical trend seen during the 2017 bull market,....0% on average...nbsp;....The early mood in the market was good...There were dips in sentiment as virus cases rolled in but it wasn't until....Importantly, the S&P 500 also failed at 3155, which was the June 19 high...DOW30 failed its 200 DMA, coinciding with a well known TA formation in the....more in the video)....The Texas data is particularly troubling because along with a record 5489 cases....3% day-on-day...Houston-area officials are warning that ICU beds are nearing capacity...In general, US markets managed to look past virus data but – like in Feb/....This time, though it's a uniquely US situation and whether that leaves an..
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