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  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Talks & Low Inflation Weigh in

    by Adam Button | Oct 10, 2019 16:19
    Wild fluctuations in indices during the least liquid time of the day (post-US,....Sudden declines in equity markets on reports that China's delegation....US CPI came in lower than expected...GBP spiked over full cent to 1...2315 on an optimistic joint statement from UK and Irish PMs Johnson and....The Premium short in the DOW30 was stopped out and a video for Premium....Trade Talks' Low Bar of Expectations....Headlines will continue to dominate in the hours and days ahead but judging by....The trade meetings this week are dominating markets but a secular theme....It was something the Fed highlighted in the FOMC minutes and will be a focus in....On Wednesday, the euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...Fed's Low Inflation Trap....The Fed argument for lowering interest rates has slowly shifted from one....It's all a bit rich considering the Fed has missed its inflation target for....That's especially true because there are signs of a turn in the economy...Wednesday's JOLTS report showed the third consecutive decline in job....The level of opening remains high and the overall jobs market is very strong....With just 9 days until the blackout period begins, officials will need to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Deal Seeks 320

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 18, 2019 0:14
    Brexit Deal Seeks 320 Chart GBP pushed to a fresh 5-month high of $1...2990 after news of an agreement on renegotiating the Brexit deal between....Now the deal will be voted upon by the British Parliaments in a special session....The looming danger of defeat from ongoing DUP opposition is the major....We are also watching crucial technical dynamics in US & European equity....The DAX30- trade was stopped out early Thursday and 2 new Premium trades were....The new deal differs from Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement via more....The latter will remain an entry point into the EU's customs zone and....Fighting for 320....Considering the DUP's opposition, in order to obtain the minimum 320 votes....The key question is will enough Labour MPs vote for the deal to reach the total....One crucial issue is the “constituency factor”, which could..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Corona Virus Weighs on Risk, Oil Dumped

    by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2020 8:12
    Corona Virus Weighs on Risk, Oil Dumped Chart The coronavirus is increasingly drawing the attention of the financial markets....Chinese officials halted travel from Wuhan, locking down the city of 11....More below on how this compares to SARS in 2003...Aussie is the highest gainer on reduced expectations for an RBA rate cut next....Global indices are down across the board, oil extends its tumble, CAD fell....nbsp;  The Premium trades in short oil and long cable are deepening in the....نستعد للإنطلاق الحقيقي (فيديو للمشتركين)....Corona Virus Now vs SARS in 2003....The outbreak of the Corona virus is especially scrutinized as it coincides....Beijing is one of the most traffic-jammed cities in the world, but it's....The city was on lockdown and virtually every face was covered by a mask...The economic impacts were real, estimates vary but the curb to GDP....8 percentage points and 2...0 points...It also weighed on other countries, particularly in east Asia...SARS eventually infected more than 5000 people in China and the path of....In that case, the WHO issued the first alert in mid-March and didn't....Ultimately, this virus will pass and growth will resume but we're at the....One area that was hard hit in 2003 was commodities, which struggled during the....However this will ultimately be a buying opportunity for risk assets, but not..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Virus Inflection Point

    by Adam Button | Feb 10, 2020 16:55
    Virus Inflection Point Chart China has taken unprecedented steps to halt what surely would have been a....Markets are rallying on reports that FoxConn has received approval to re-open....The chart below suggests that markets may also be starting to focus on the....Higher China CPI to start the week sparked some worries about PBOC....Fed chair Powell will testify to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday...As coronavirus case hit 40,000 and deaths surpass SARS, the market remains....Incredible, if not draconian, measures by Chinese officials have slowed the....Yet as we learn more about the virus and some parts of China head back to work,....New daily cases have leveled off around 3000 in recent days and that's cause....Skeptics might conclude that testing capability is strained and that would-be....Rumors are rampant but the market has been trading on official news and hasn&....The week ahead will be a major test because parts of China's economy....One area to watch particularly closely is Indonesia...All its neighbours have cases and travel patterns show there should be some....Recovery and countermeasures....Nervousness re-emerged from the World Health Organization on concerns over the....But reports from the central govt announcing it will spend over $10....The PBOC is also said to start injecting the first part of re-lending facilities....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -75K vs -59K prior...GBP +13K vs +18K prior...JPY -21K vs -36K prior...CHF +5K vs +3...5 prior...CAD +19K vs +35K prior...AUD -43K vs -27K prior...NZD -2K vs +2K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Euro Keeps on Falling

    by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2020 16:37
    Before we cover the euro, we must give mention to the yen's breakdown as....10 resistance to a 9-month high of 111...32...The move emerges alongside a new high in the SP500 and DAX30, while DOW30....China's annnouncement of further support for affected supply chains has....The USDJPY short was finally stopped out as stops cascaded through 111...30s...CAD and EUR are the only gainers vs the strengthening USD...US building permits were string but housing starts fell...Canada CPI was mixed...All eyes turn to the FOMC minutes and any new insights on the Fed's....A new Premium trade has been issued to clients in a non-FX markets, backed by 3....EUR/USD is up today, but has fallen in 3 out of the last 13 sessions...The euro has fallen virtually every day this month and the number one reason is....The 'expectations' component of Tuesday's ZEW sentiment survey fell to +8...7 from +26...7; far short of the +21...5 consensus in the latest example...Another factor is that the euro has solidified itself as a low-yielder,....Bloomberg highlighted how single-A rated LVMH was able to launch the largest....Those borrowing conditions are going to entice foreign companies to borrow in....The third crucial factor is China...Owing to the trade war, China-US trade has been the focus of the past two years....Europe is highly-dependent on exports to China and its slate of exports –....In short, Europe is more vulnerable to coronavirus weakness than some other....Finally and critically, the eurozone has hamstrung its ability to respond to an....Markets are increasingly convinced that any economic weakness in the US, China,....That's not the case for the eurozone...Along the same lines, the FOMC minutes are due at 1900 GMT and could offer....The market is now pricing in an 82% chance of a cut in July.

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Coronavirus Positioning

    by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2020 16:02
    The Coronavirus Positioning Chart Markets gets caught in a fresh round of selling after a brief reprive in early....VIX pushing to 24...87, DOW30 eyes the Dec 3rd low and SPX nears the 100-DMA of 3164...GBP is the best performer, followed by JPY and CHF...No one wants to see a global pandemic but experts and the market are....If it comes, which global assets will suffer and which ones will appreciate?....تطبيق التوازن بين الخوف و الطمع (فيديو للمشتركين)....On Monday the market got a taste of what the pandemic trade may look like as....We have repeatedly highlighted the bond market as a spot to watch and it was the....It may also be just a taste of what's next with a Fed cut in April now....If a pandemic hits, the Fed will likely cut all the way to zero and pull rates....In times of trouble, bonds are always a clear winner...That isn't always the case for gold and precious metals but it will be this....Technically, gold has broken out in a big way and there is little resistance....In FX, we may have gotten a taste of the trade Monday as the yen led the way and....Last week's squeeze on the yen raised some Japan-specific risks and....The other side of that trade is equally interesting...The loonie has held up well recently compared to AUD and NZD but that may....The latest South Korea business sentiment survey may offer a hint of....It fell on Tuesday to 84...4 from 92...0.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Systemic Risks are here

    by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2020 23:50
    Systemic Risks are here Chart And it finally happened; major US indices fell 10% in a single day, the....Coronavirus is illustrating how quickly a real-world crisis can morph into a....The Fed's emergency liquidity-creation move, return to QE and the....nbsp; The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the pound....The GBP and Bitcoin trades were stopped out...A new Premium video has been posted below, highlighting the core of our high-....A major theme in the post-financial crisis era in the markets has been the....The risk is that liquidity has turned into leverage and the breathtaking speed....The emergency move from the Fed today was ominous...Five minutes before a 30-year bond auction the Fed announced a $1...5 trillion term-lending program...To put that into perspective, after two years of QE in 2011, the total size of....1 trillion...Moreover, the Fed announced that in just 35 minutes it would be auctioning $500B....That final detail is key...A same-day settlement suggests someone needed money asap...Financial institutions need to balance the books at end-of-day and needed to....The Fed itself said this was due to short-term Treasury market liquidity....Spreads were widening and the cross-currency swaps market wasn't....Given the rout in European banks, that suggests problems could be there...Of course, this is all speculation...The larger point is that we are all currently focused on the direct impacts....The combined opacity of that and the extreme unknows surrounding the virus..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD?

    by Adam Button | Mar 23, 2020 23:47
    Will Fed Going Nuclear Hurt USD? Chart Finally, the Federal Reserve went way beyond anything it had done previously....The kneejerk reaction was to sell the US dollar but that move faded and that may....Congress still failing to reach a deal, forcing stocks lower until the last half....The UK announced a full lockdown with cable near 35-year lows...A new non-FX non-Indices Premium trade was issued today...13 is the number of Fed stimulus programs and actions, created so far....It included unlimited QE in government-backed debt at $125B per week, corporate....The shock from the program initially weighed on the US dollar, but over time....A risk in evaluating this crisis is looking at it from a US or European....It's truly a global event...The moves will ease funding stress, but by underwriting credit risk, the Fed....Contrast that with emerging and developed market central banks that don&....Even if the moves eventually help to draw a line under US equities, that will....Could the US dollar continue to hold firm despite further gold gains in the....In the UK, Boris Johnson announced a three-week complete lockdown of the....It marks a turnaround in policy from a week ago and will mean a severe short-....Cable remains severely oversold but is trying to carve out a bottom at 1...1400...Watch that level...Looking forward, the day ahead will feature a continued close watch on US....The latest price tag is an astonishing $2...5 trillion, which will likely push the budget deficit above $4 trillion this....In terms of getting it done, it's always questionable to bet money on....In terms of data, the March prelim Markit manufacturing and services....Those should provide an early look at how hard shutdowns are hitting but be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Month End, Beginning of the End?

    by Adam Button | Mar 27, 2020 1:43
    Month End, Beginning of the End? Chart Markets brushed off a massive number of US unemployment claims in a sign that....Sterling was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Weekend risk looms...Wednesday's Premium trade is +280 pips in the green...A new trade in the Premium Insights went into after the NY Thursday close...US initial jobless claims soared to a record 3...283 million compared to 281K the week before and sashing the 1982 record of....It was a harrowing number but risk trades climbed on the headlines...We warned yesterday that even a number in the 2-3m range might be seen as good....Evidently a number even slightly higher than that was enough to satisfy bargain....In terms of the coronavirus, the US is now the epicenter of the outbreak with....That also didn't derail the risk trade and the DJIA gained 6...4% in its largest 3-day rally since 1933...Part of the moves are clearly a sign of relief that the government and central....Markets were on the brink of a freeze-up and meltdown earlier in the month and....That's some reason for celebration...We also highlighted month and quarter-end rebalancing earlier in the week...Given the drop in stocks and rally in bonds, balanced funds need to adjust....Estimates were for $240B in flows but talk of it was widespread and at some....There are currently 6 existing trades open in the Premium Insights, 2 in FX, 1....Each of the 6 trades is currently in the  green...Another clear sign that liquidity conditions have improved is the fall in....It sank across the board Thursday and the beaten-down pound was particularly....2175...The calendar is the main obstacle in the day ahead...We've seen epic selloffs and squeezes into recent weekends...Markets shouldn't be under any illusions that cases will continue to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide

    by Adam Button | Apr 14, 2020 19:45
    Metals Broaden Rally, USD Extends Slide Chart Gold broke the March highs to resume its rally for the 4th straight day, hitting....USD funding stress eased further, prompting traders to revert towards....Silver continue to rise vs Gold and USD as XAGUSD further broke Feb trendline....especially as the US deficit is widely estimated to reach $3...8 trillion this year with debt hitting 100% of GDP...As equities show more optimism on slowing growth of corona virus cases,....Oil extended its decline as markets returned from Easter Holiday, with US....30...Oil pushed higher early Sunday night, only to get slammed back down and then....But Tuesday proved a different story amid doubts with China's demand...Virus news was largely more of the same but some talk of lifting some lockdown....Today's rally in equities was led by consumer discretionary stocks and....The notable directional move came in gold as it rose above the March highs to....The reality of central bank balance sheets and government deficits is....Overlooked is that the worst-case virus scenarios have probably been avoided....That diminishes the risk of liquidation of gold reserves, at least for now...Technically, gold shows little major resistance until the all-time highs...Futures also continue to trade at a premium to spot in what's likely a..
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