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Results: 61 to 70 of 1,000
Results: 61 to 70 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: FedSpeak Train & Unwinding Underway
by Adam Button | Apr 7, 2021 14:10
Little has changed in the underlying economic fundamentals this week but a....We will hear from 4 Fed speakers today (Evans, Kaplan, Barkin & Daly) see....More US data strength emerged yesterday with the JOLTS job openings at 7367K in....The US dollar stabilises against most currencies following a 2-day retreat,....The charts below show that since the start of the day (after 10 pm London)....nbsp; Today is an opportunity for the Fed to make waves...nbsp;....The IMF yesterday upgraded its global growth forecast on Tuesday to 6...0% from 5...5% in the January forecasts...That's mostly due to US stimulus but it's also important to note that....That speaks to the resilience of growth so far this year...Both news items are a continuation of recent macro strength, yet markets are....US yields fell below pre-NFP levels and a number of unwinds are way in FX,....Beyond Stimulus Impact....Skeptics will point out that March was likely boosted by stimulus payments but....The question is whether inflation will rise too high and if the Fed will be....The prices paid component in the ISM survey was the highest since 2008...The debate is whether the US reopening strength is a domestic phenomenon in....If so, the commodity currencies stand to benefit greatly from a surge in global....This isn't an easy move to explain...It's just an episode of consolidation after a straight-line move....The new fiscal year in Japan and wide Treasury spreads of Japanese and....The rest of the market is likely keying off of that...Ultimately, this will likely be a move to fade but it's worth watching....Looking ahead, the highlight will be Fedspeak with Kaplan, Barkin, Daly and....There's a détente at the moment with the market pricing in Fed....The Fed has pushed back on the idea but Powell also conceded that the only way....Meanwhile the bond market also hasn't pushed beyond what the Fed will....What could change? The Fed could indicate an early withdrawal of stimulus....At the moment though, none of that is in play, though Dallas' Kaplan (at....Still, even if he doubles down on that idea or pushes harder, he's in a..
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Intraday Market Thought: Lagarde Cautiousness & Biden's Taxes
by Adam Button | Apr 22, 2021 22:33
All market chatter is about Biden's taxes & their impact on shares and....But let's discuss that ECB decision first-- The economic outlook is....The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...Biden's tax proposal is discussed below...The Markit surveys are up next...Below are the messages on upcoming EURUSD descent issued to the WhatsApp....The volatility & subsequent selloff followed as foretold...Expectations were for the ECB to leave PEPP purchases unchanged and that's....However there were some who thought the could pre-announce a return to a slower....What was more of a surprise was how somber Lagarde remained...Eurozone economic data has improved considerably since the start of the year....That was seen again Thursday with consumer confidence rising to -8...1 from -10...8...Lagarde forecast that growth would 'firm' later in the year and said....In offering a hint at why, Lagarde pointed to a lower level of fiscal....The euro sagged after the press conference and briefly broke below 1...20...Much of the decline was on risk aversion in large part due to risk aversion on a....That was something he campaigned on but it evidently took the market by surprise....Biden's Tax Proposal....The preliminary tax announcement consists of raising the top income tax....6% and levying income and capital gains tax rates for earners of more than $1mn...Combining these hikes with the those from Obama's health care reform, the....Markets sold off on the announcement, but it is not inconceivable for markets....There's also talk that ultimately the new tax rate will settle at at 28%....The day ahead features most of the global manufacturing and services PMIs....The increases in these metrics in the past 2-3 months have been swift but what&....Every comment in the KC Fed on Thursday was a nod to supply chain disruptions,....ldquo;It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain....quot;Entry level pay will need to be increased...This will create pressure on all other positions,” was another.
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Intraday Market Thought: Back From the Abyss & the 250-pt ride
by Adam Button | Jul 23, 2021 13:08
Markets have a few more days of risk-on before Wednesday's FOMC meeting...Will this be a case of a quick ascent to 35090s in the DOW and 4400s in the S&....71 NZDUSD? More below...nbsp; At the start of the week, markets looked with panic into the abyss of....But a few days later the mood has shifted as the market weighs the risks....nbsp; The Markit PMIs for UK and EU were disappointing, but didn't orevent....We turn to Canadian retail sales next...DOW30 and SPX completed their way to 35000 and 4390 with the help of a....The turnaround from Monday's pessimism has been impressive...The US CDC underscored covid risks on Thursday by highlighting a 53% week-over-....That led to a momentary drop in equities, yields and risk trades in general...Once again though, the market shrugged it off...As we dwell on it, the ultimate question regarding covid is simple: Will....They may get sick but they'll fully participate in the economy beforehand....Of course, vaccine efficacy isn't a black/white question...There are degrees of success and problems – particularly in schools....The delta variant is problematic on many levels but data continues to show that....So unless (or until) there's a variant that truly beats the vaccine,....To be sure, the latest news could slow the trajectory of the recovery and....With regards to next Wednesday's FOMC meeting, there's talk of using....The key then is how will Powell communicate this discussion at Wednesday&....There are challenges worth monitoring closely but AUD/USD is at 7-month lows,....China's crackdown on tech stocks is also weighing on the pair...nbsp;....What's less clear is how strong the response will be in reopening economies...We will get two data points on that question on Friday with the Markit US....The latter report is for May but Statistics Canada is also releasing..
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Intraday Market Thought: Sideways Trading & Diverging Arguments
by Ashraf Laidi | May 12, 2020 16:16
As US indices trade at their tightest range in three months, it's time to....The fundamental narrative contains plenty of arguments for further upside....US CPI fell the most since 2008, while core inflation posted its biggest....Below is this week's Premium Video, detailing the current and potential....The WhatsApp Broadcast Group for VIP Premium subscribers is now fully....Equity bulls point to to the gradual reopening of the economy and consumer....Add to it the US govt's readiness to deliver additional stimulus and the....Bears argue markets have returned to overvalued levels given the ongoing....A few things we're watching are the NASDAQ's attempt to fill and break....The semiconductors index 1800 resistance is another...In FX, EURUSD is seen recapturing 1...0950 and gold 1723...There are also crucial developments on the metals space (as per Friday's..
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Intraday Market Thought: Lockdown Linguistics
by Adam Button | Oct 27, 2020 18:40
At the moment, the market is struggling with the question of 'lockdown vs no....Take a look at the GOLD and DOW30 charts at the bottom of this piece...Meanwhile, Ashraf posted this latest chart, highlighting the unfolding....nbsp;....There is no consensus definition for what a pandemic 'lockdown' means...It's used to range from everything to harshly-enforced home quarantines in....As cases mount, there's a fear of a new lockdown as if it's a binary....The likelihood of true nationwide lockdowns was saw in March is remote...Even parks were closed in many countries and that's something that proved....The real question is how a resurgence in virus cases will impact economies...It's how much economic growth will be curbed by efforts to curb the virus,....Framing it as lockdown vs no lockdown is a mistake...What we should be considering is how much a continued spike through flu....Part of the reason we don't hear much commentary about that is because it&....Returning to a lockdown would mirror what happened in March; economists now....What we don't have any idea on is how consumers will react to a long,....Will banks and governments continue their generosity? Will business owners....There is no model to fall back on and almost every turn so far in the pandemic....Caution is warranted...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Georgia on the Mind of Betting Markets
by Adam Button | Jan 5, 2021 22:04
The eyes of the financial world will be on Georgia tonight as voters determine....According to PredictIt betting markets, there's a 60% chance of Republicans....nbsp; Polls close at 0000 GMT...Will the Senate race involve a delayed outcome? Was Tuesday's rally an....The combination of the Georgia race and the UK lockdown on Monday upended....The covid variants present a formidable threat to the reopening narrative in the....Sterling made a broad recovery from Monday's selloff, which was....nbsp;....Early voting data looks promising for Democrats and much of that shift....Looking beyond the results, the consensus view is that a Republican hold....Biden promised $2000 stimulus checks at a final rally Tuesday and a Democratic....The most straight-forward trade in that scenario may be precious metals along....Look for CAD and MXN to be the top FX beneficiaries on commodities and the....How the vote plays out is an important consideration as well...It took nearly a week before the result of the Georgia general election was....As in the November vote, the early tally will favor Republicans but mail-in....What's different this time is that market participants can use data from....If Democrats look to be outperforming the November vote by 3-4 percentage..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Fly, Industrial Metals Follow, not Gold or Silver
by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2021 19:29
US 10 yr yields hit 1...36%, while REAL 10 yr yields improved to -0...8% from -1% last week, that is the biggest percentage weekly gain since....Copper, zinc and nickel soared today after Goldman issued a positive note on....Stocks pared some of their earlier gains, while USD ended lower...Weak US jobless claims report swung the pendulum back towards US stimulus as the....GBP was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Canadian retail sales fell by more expected...Below is the chart rationale to Ashraf's "short oil call" to the....nbsp;....US weekly initial jobless claims were much higher than anticipated, rising to....Each week, the numbers are a reminder that millions of Americans are....Expect a strong push on that front in the week ahead as the House passes the....9 trillion stimulus bill...In FX, the market is struggling to digest higher yields...At times it's led to a stronger dollar but on Thursday, the brief dollar....The moves are generating high amounts of noise but if we look at the past week,....It's the same thing month-to-date and year-to-date...That's a trend...Looking to Friday's trade, Canadian retail sales for December are expected....6% and -2...4% ex-autos...The loonie has been showing some resilience this week and a strong report....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Hit Nasdaq, Bitcoin Pre-Powell
by Adam Button | Feb 23, 2021 14:35
Indices broaden their losses as bond yields ask harder questions, with NASDAQ....Bitcoin posted its habitual 30% decline off the highs, testing the key 21-DMA...No coincidence that BOTH Tesla & Bitcoin are 30% off their highs...Or is it? CFTC FX positioning remains in a frustrating freeze but oil....Here is Ashraf's video on indices, fx, gold and oil recorded last night...Bitcoin hit an air-pocket on Monday in a quick fall to $46,610 from $53,000....Monday's Bitcoin drop took only minutes and highlighted the fragility of....At the same time, it highlighted the resilience of the bull market with dip....Ultimately, that's the signal from here with retail still at the point....DXY stabilised at the curcial 90 support, while XAUUSD failed at the 1815/16....nbsp;....Meanwhile, commodity markets continue to strengthen and that's providing a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +140K vs +140K prior...GBP +22K vs +21K prior...JPY +37K vs +35K prior...CHF +14K vs +11K prior...CAD +8K vs +10K prior...AUD -3K vs -1K prior...NZD +12K vs +12K prior...The speculative market continues to be locked in place...Even the latest rally in GBP is being met with skepticism while nothing seems....One spot that is notable is the oil speculative position, which is right in....Could specs be what drives the next leg of the move?..
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Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Data Will Be a Test
by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2021 13:01Fresh declines in US bond yields are boosting gold and silver ahead of....The grind higher in risk trades continues on Monday as US stocks hit....JPY and AUD are the only gainers vs USD, with GBP and CHF on te backfoot...A big challenge looms in the day ahead with June US CPI...DOW futures are the weakest performers as the descent in yieleds weighs....nbsp;....SEE YESTERDAY'S 10-YEAR YIELD CHART HERE as1...40% becomes the new ceiling...Monday's price action offered more evidence that last week's test of....US equities started soft but soon gained momentum, in part due to rising yields...The 10-year auction yield was 0...3 bps below expectations and that briefly caused a ripple in rates and USD/....Commodities and commodity currencies showed some resilience as well with oil....Copper has quickly become a forgotten market but it's held steady at....Looking ahead, there's the scope for considerable volatility following the....It's expected to edge back to 4...9% from 5...0% y/y in May and whether or not it can get under a 5-handle will largely....Beyond that, the details of the report will be critical...The market has a good idea of what components of CPI will be shrugged off....It will be key to watch the bond market reaction...After the surprise jump in May CPI, yields on the long end of the curve fell...The implication is that higher rates now may force the Fed into a policy error....Conversely, we will be interested to see the market reaction to a lower-than-.. -
Intraday Market Thought: New Premium Trade & Pressure Lifts on the Fed
by Adam Button | Jul 28, 2021 18:40
The Fed blackout period was a reminder the central bank can be its own worst....More below...nbsp; The yen was the top performer Tuesday while the New Zealand dollar....A new Premium trade has been issued moments ago...nbsp;....Markets in July have been consumed with escalating worries (not necessarily....Inflation worries, however, have eased, albeit temporarily...Yet, falling Treasury yields and the sense that we've passed the peak of....So how do we incorporate the Fed's media blackout, with easing inflation....The best central banks are the ones that keep off the front pages, and Powell&....None of the questions the Fed is asking have been answered and pressure on them....The path forward here is to acknowledge risks around covid and inflation while....The market will again want to hear there's significant work to do on....The dollar selloff on Tuesday was likely a shift in positions in expectation of....Do not forget month-end adjustments over the next 2 days...nbsp;....The risk is that Powell frets about inflation or puts a taper back on the....nbsp; That's not likely but it's what to watch for...Ashraf raised the possibility of the Fed mentioning the Delta varian in the....If it happens, expect USD selling and a push-up in gold and silver...nbsp;....nbsp;..
