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  • Intraday Market Thought: Lockdown Linguistics

    by Adam Button | Oct 27, 2020 18:40
    Lockdown Linguistics Chart At the moment, the market is struggling with the question of 'lockdown vs no....Take a look at the GOLD and DOW30 charts at the bottom of this piece...Meanwhile, Ashraf posted this latest chart, highlighting the unfolding....nbsp;....There is no consensus definition for what a pandemic 'lockdown' means...It's used to range from everything to harshly-enforced home quarantines in....As cases mount, there's a fear of a new lockdown as if it's a binary....The likelihood of true nationwide lockdowns was saw in March is remote...Even parks were closed in many countries and that's something that proved....The real question is how a resurgence in virus cases will impact economies...It's how much economic growth will be curbed by efforts to curb the virus,....Framing it as lockdown vs no lockdown is a mistake...What we should be considering is how much a continued spike through flu....Part of the reason we don't hear much commentary about that is because it&....Returning to a lockdown would mirror what happened in March; economists now....What we don't have any idea on is how consumers will react to a long,....Will banks and governments continue their generosity? Will business owners....There is no model to fall back on and almost every turn so far in the pandemic....Caution is warranted...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Georgia on the Mind of Betting Markets

    by Adam Button | Jan 5, 2021 22:04
    Georgia on the Mind of Betting Markets Chart The eyes of the financial world will be on Georgia tonight as voters determine....According to PredictIt betting markets, there's a 60% chance of Republicans....nbsp; Polls close at 0000 GMT...Will the Senate race involve a delayed outcome? Was Tuesday's rally an....The combination of the Georgia race and the UK lockdown on Monday upended....The covid variants present a formidable threat to the reopening narrative in the....Sterling made a broad recovery from Monday's selloff, which was....nbsp;....Early voting data looks promising for Democrats and much of that shift....Looking beyond the results, the consensus view is that a Republican hold....Biden promised $2000 stimulus checks at a final rally Tuesday and a Democratic....The most straight-forward trade in that scenario may be precious metals along....Look for CAD and MXN to be the top FX beneficiaries on commodities and the....How the vote plays out is an important consideration as well...It took nearly a week before the result of the Georgia general election was....As in the November vote, the early tally will favor Republicans but mail-in....What's different this time is that market participants can use data from....If Democrats look to be outperforming the November vote by 3-4 percentage..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yields Fly, Industrial Metals Follow, not Gold or Silver

    by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2021 19:29
    Yields Fly, Industrial Metals Follow, not Gold or Silver Chart US 10 yr yields hit 1...36%, while REAL 10 yr yields improved to -0...8% from -1% last week, that is the biggest percentage weekly gain since....Copper, zinc and nickel soared today after Goldman issued a positive note on....Stocks pared some of their earlier gains, while USD ended lower...Weak US jobless claims report swung the pendulum back towards US stimulus as the....GBP was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Canadian retail sales fell by more expected...Below is the chart rationale to Ashraf's "short oil call" to the....nbsp;....US weekly initial jobless claims were much higher than anticipated, rising to....Each week, the numbers are a reminder that millions of Americans are....Expect a strong push on that front in the week ahead as the House passes the....9 trillion stimulus bill...In FX, the market is struggling to digest higher yields...At times it's led to a stronger dollar but on Thursday, the brief dollar....The moves are generating high amounts of noise but if we look at the past week,....It's the same thing month-to-date and year-to-date...That's a trend...Looking to Friday's trade, Canadian retail sales for December are expected....6% and -2...4% ex-autos...The loonie has been showing some resilience this week and a strong report....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yields Hit Nasdaq, Bitcoin Pre-Powell

    by Adam Button | Feb 23, 2021 14:35
    Yields Hit Nasdaq, Bitcoin Pre-Powell Chart Indices broaden their losses as bond yields ask harder questions, with NASDAQ....Bitcoin posted its habitual 30% decline off the highs, testing the key 21-DMA...No coincidence that BOTH Tesla & Bitcoin are 30% off their highs...Or is it? CFTC FX positioning remains in a frustrating freeze but oil....Here is Ashraf's video on indices, fx, gold and oil recorded last night...Bitcoin hit an air-pocket on Monday in a quick fall to $46,610 from $53,000....Monday's Bitcoin drop took only minutes and highlighted the fragility of....At the same time, it highlighted the resilience of the bull market with dip....Ultimately, that's the signal from here with retail still at the point....DXY stabilised at the curcial 90 support, while XAUUSD failed at the 1815/16....nbsp;....Meanwhile, commodity markets continue to strengthen and that's providing a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +140K vs +140K prior...GBP +22K vs +21K prior...JPY +37K vs +35K prior...CHF +14K vs +11K prior...CAD +8K vs +10K prior...AUD -3K vs -1K prior...NZD +12K vs +12K prior...The speculative market continues to be locked in place...Even the latest rally in GBP is being met with skepticism while nothing seems....One spot that is notable is the oil speculative position, which is right in....Could specs be what drives the next leg of the move?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Data Will Be a Test

    by Adam Button | Jul 13, 2021 13:01
    Fresh declines in US bond yields are boosting gold and silver ahead of....The grind higher in risk trades continues on Monday as US stocks hit....JPY and AUD are the only gainers vs USD, with GBP and CHF on te backfoot...A big challenge looms in the day ahead with June US CPI...DOW futures are the weakest performers as the descent in yieleds  weighs....nbsp;....SEE YESTERDAY'S 10-YEAR YIELD CHART HERE as1...40% becomes the new ceiling...Monday's price action offered more evidence that last week's test of....US equities started soft but soon gained momentum, in part due to rising yields...The 10-year auction yield was 0...3 bps below expectations and that briefly caused a ripple in rates and USD/....Commodities and commodity currencies showed some resilience as well with oil....Copper has quickly become a forgotten market but it's held steady at....Looking ahead, there's the scope for considerable volatility following the....It's expected to edge back to 4...9% from 5...0% y/y in May and whether or not it can get under a 5-handle will largely....Beyond that, the details of the report will be critical...The market has a good idea of what components of CPI will be shrugged off....It will be key to watch the bond market reaction...After the surprise jump in May CPI, yields on the long end of the curve fell...The implication is that higher rates now may force the Fed into a policy error....Conversely, we will be interested to see the market reaction to a lower-than-..

  • Intraday Market Thought: New Premium Trade & Pressure Lifts on the Fed

    by Adam Button | Jul 28, 2021 18:40
    New Premium Trade & Pressure Lifts on the Fed Chart The Fed blackout period was a reminder the central bank can be its own worst....More below...nbsp; The yen was the top performer Tuesday while the New Zealand dollar....A new Premium trade has been issued moments ago...nbsp;....Markets in July have been consumed with escalating worries (not necessarily....Inflation worries, however, have eased, albeit temporarily...Yet, falling Treasury yields and the sense that we've passed the peak of....So how do we incorporate the Fed's media blackout, with easing inflation....The best central banks are the ones that keep off the front pages, and Powell&....None of the questions the Fed is asking have been answered and pressure on them....The path forward here is to acknowledge risks around covid and inflation while....The market will again want to hear there's significant work to do on....The dollar selloff on Tuesday was likely a shift in positions in expectation of....Do not forget month-end adjustments over the next 2 days...nbsp;....The risk is that Powell frets about inflation or puts a taper back on the....nbsp; That's not likely but it's what to watch for...Ashraf raised the possibility of the Fed mentioning the Delta varian in the....If it happens, expect USD selling and a push-up in gold and silver...nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Energy Fever Breaks

    by Adam Button | Oct 7, 2021 17:08
    Energy Fever Breaks Chart A potential blow off top in gas prices could have broader implications...A resolution to the US debt ceiling should take down the temperature in....US weekly jobless claims fell sharply by 38K to 326K last week, following....China returns from holiday...nbsp; The FTSE100 long was stopped out at a tight stop of 6980, but those who....Today's new Index trade is +120 pts in the green so far...Below are the Oct 2013-2021 market similarities involving the debt ceiling....nbsp;....The monumental move in European gas and energy prices ratcheted up to a new....However, the move reversed and prices finished 10% lower, in part due to....It's far too early to call a top for certain, but the spike higher and....A cold winter could ultimately leave parts of Europe in a dire situation but....There's also a fair chance that hedges or a short squeeze added to the....Gas prices in Europe and North America, along with oil, all carved out bearish....German stocks in particular may be a clear beneficiary if energy prices....Tail risks also fell in the US as Congressional leaders signaled a short-....That will give Democrats time to add it to a reconciliation bill or we'll do....In any case, markets breathed a sigh of relief from another manufactured crisis...Ultimately, it will be the economy that decides were markets go...The ADP employment report has been a poor jobs tracker but it foreshadowed....Wednesday's report showed 568K jobs compared to 428K expected...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yields Pause, Metals Jump, Dax Breaks out

    by Adam Button | Oct 22, 2021 15:36
    Yields Pause, Metals Jump, Dax Breaks out Chart President Biden said there will be no tax hikes on high earners or US....The dollar fell across the board, with both CNHUSD and XAGUSD posting their 3rd....nbsp; The week ended with stronger Canada retail sales, mixed PMIs in....Gold jumped more than $30 to 1812, reaching the target of the inverted head-....More specifically, the GoldBugs ratio fell below its 100 DMA and 21 WMA ....The subsequent posts show the progress of the trade as well as in XAGUSD...A new Premium trade was posted earlier today...Heads up for Powell's speech at 11:00 am Eastern (15:00 GMT)....Biden relayed on US TV late Thursday that Democratic Sen Sinema said she will....Perhaps that's a tactic to put pressure on her but it likely means that....It will likely mean a considerably smaller package but ongoing low taxes....We will continue to keep a close eye on what comes next and the potential....In the bigger picture on Thursday, there was a retracement in yen weakness that....It's likely to be a standard dip after an extended one-way move but it....Economic data continues to send positive signals with a strong US existing home....For Canada, the final piece of economic data ahead of next week's BOC will....That sector has been a drag in Q3 while the rest of the economy hums...It would take an especially weak print to spoil a hawkish turn from the BOC.

  • Intraday Market Thought: BoC Done, ECB Dithers, Fed Tinkers

    by Adam Button | Oct 28, 2021 13:16
    BoC Done, ECB Dithers, Fed Tinkers Chart The loonie pared half of Wednesday's +100 pip jump after the BOC took a....The Fed is likely to start tapering this month or the next (question is whether....The first look at US Q3 GDP is coming up next, exp at 2...6% from 6...7%....DAX and Nasdaq remain boosted by falling yields, especially the tumble in "....Here is the long term chart for US real yields...What do you see? Watch the video for the implications of these developments...Yesterday we flagged the risk that the BOC could skip the second-to-last step....That's what happened as the pace of purchases was dropped to zero from $2B/....In addition, the BOC moved up its timeline for the closure of the output....That's when rate hikes will be firmly on the table...What may be most important is what wasn't said...The BOC would surely know that the market is pricing in four hikes in 2022....Silence isn't a full endorsement but it's a step in that direction...With that, USD/CAD fell 125 pips on the news to 1...2300...It later retraced 65 pips on a broad USD bid that was wrapped up in some large....It all bears close watching but could be a symptom of month end...Next up is the advance look at Q3 US GDP...The consensus is 2...7% q/q annualized and estimates range from +0...7% to +5...0% as economists struggle to forecast the impacts of bottlenecks and delta...Adding a downside risk was a surprisingly large US trade deficit in....One forecast that got some extra attention was the Atlanta Fed tracker,....2%....That's dangerously close to contraction...The inclination is to fade any moves on a soft report because Q4 is looking much....The baseline is $15B per month but Powell may indicate that it's..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN Earlier Today

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 23, 2017 17:03
    Ashraf on BNN Earlier Today Chart Ashraf on the Fed's next step in light of Trump's fiscal plan...Play.
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