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Results: 691 to 700 of 1,000
Results: 691 to 700 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Polling Points, Stress Tests & Tech Issues
by Adam Button | Jun 26, 2020 19:06Month-end flows dynamics, rebalancing of Russel indices and resurfacing doubts....But it's also time to start mentioning the US election and the possible risks....Ashraf mentioned that a rare event in a major currency pair is undergoing as we....Such event is identical in terms of time and price symmetry to the last time it....He's shared the idea preliminarily with the WhatsApp Broadcast Group and....The most important levels to watch ahead of Friday's close is the S&P500's....30 and EURUSD 1...1190...One potentially negative aspect for indices is the 10-yr yield's break below....68%, which could trigger further selling if 0...60% is taken out...But the gold implications for such an event are largely positive...Trump's only consistent message is that he will not or cannot afford to leave....Trump reiterated today that the phase-one trade deal with China was “....This means that technology stocks could be the first to gain from a confirmed....Stimulus replaces lockdown...Another positive emerges from reports of discussions between the Trump....Ashraf mentioned that the administration's willingness to resist any lockdown....These would be considered a double-positive shock for the economy...Or at least an attempt to do so...Polling Thoughts...The market has plenty to focus on at the moment and the US election isn't until....There is a clear shift towards Biden in a series of polls, with some major ones....No one needs a reminder of the polling surprises in recent years so pricing in....The risk here is the polls themselves...Trump is highly attuned to polls and the near-term risk is that he grows....It's unclear how that would manifest itself but ramping up the trade war.. -
Intraday Market Thought: CAD Shrugs Off Deficit & Why GBP
by Adam Button | Jul 9, 2020 12:54
Another day, another slide for the US dollar as risk appetite remains neutral....USDX sustained 4 straight monthly declines, the last 3 of which are the....nbsp; Wednesday's Canada deficit numbers were a reminder....nbsp;GBP is the day's top performer, while the US dollar lagged as it....US weekly jobless claims are up next and are forecast to remain above 1 mln...Two Premium FX trades were issued yesteday, one of which is GBPUSD....Ashraf explained in yesterday's Premium video why he would issue the....2520...nbsp; ....Leaks suggesting a +$300B fiscal deficit in Canada late Wednesday were borne out....The numbers were wholly unexpected but the way the loonie shrugged off the....Morneau also offered no commentary on when a return to something resembling a....USD/CAD fell a full cent on the day to hit a two-week low...It also briefly broke the 200-dma near 1...3500...The fresh 9-year high in gold at $1808 also underscored the market's....There is no end in sight to government spending anywhere...In the UK Wednesday, Chancellor Sunak rolled out another round of targeted....The broad market shrugged off a record number of virus cases in the US as well...Tech remains in a roaring bull market and Chinese shares – particularly....If the positive sentiment can last through Friday then the case for more....Up next is the main US economic release is weekly initial jobless claims...The consensus is for another 1...375m applications for unemployment benefits...The numbers remain staggeringly high but the market has shrugged off..
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Intraday Market Thought: Silver, USD Near Inflection Points
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 20, 2020 18:26
GBP, silver and NASDAQ are in control of FX, commodities and indices on due to a....AstraZeneca broadened optimism after positive results from early vaccine....Euro remained supported after the 4 holdout EU nations agreed over EUR 380....EU US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Senate Majority Leader McConnell are....Silver hit a 4-year high as Gold/Silver ratio broke below its 10-month trendline....USDX deepens its selloff, with 95...80 and 1190 acting as crucial support on USDX and Bloomberg USDX Index....More key market levels are listed below...Austria, Denmark, Netherlands and Sweden have agreed that the EU's EUR 750....It all changed for EURUSD on June 23rd when it held the 1...1180s upon Germany's proposed stimulus...It was on June 23rd when Ashraf called mentioned EURUSD's technical....Key market levels....US Crude oil sustains the 38...30-41...50s range highlighted in here while DOW30 continue to fail the top of the....Premium Insights' subscribers were issued a long on XAGUSD at 15...20/50 on May 7th, days before the Gold/Silver ratio broke below 100...The trade hit its final target at 18...30 on June 1st...nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: Bottom Up Update on USD, Gold, Silver
by Adam Button | Aug 6, 2020 22:39
The market continues to use its imagination surrounding US stimulus....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged...The July non-farm payrolls report is due up next...Ashraf has come up with a Bottom-Top approach to updating a Time-Price call....He dissects the triangularity of USD-pairs, USDX and gold with a time-based....nbsp;....Shortly after the jobs report on Friday, the market will shift to focusing on....As we wrote about earlier in the week, the market is sensing the strong hand....Republicans have proposed a $1 trillion package that includes a drop in special....Initially the thinking would be that they would split the difference, but....She estimates voters will blame the President and his party if a deal isn&....So far that's led to a deadlock...Pelosi said there will be a deal at some point but she doesn't appear to be....4 trillion in spending...Meanwhile, the White House is planning an executive order to delay payroll tax....There's no doubt the lack of benefits is already hitting consumer....How much patience does the market have? If the jobs report is weak, it could run....Underpinning USD bears was this week's US Treasury's quarterly refunding....Coupon sales were larger than expected and will be a record $112B next week...Swallowing all that supply pushed US 10-year yields up 3...6 bps to 0...547%....The rebound gave 10s some breathing room ahead of the key 0...50% level...The energy market is another spot to watch...Oil looked like it was breaking above its six-week in a WTI rally to $43...50, but the break couldn't be sustained in a decline back to $42.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Two Rookie C-Bank Leaders, One Question
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 10, 2020 12:23
The dollar resumed its fall on Wednesday as risk assets rebounded and two top....The Australian dollar led the way Wednesday while the yen lagged...Franc and the euro are the strongest and the Aussie is the weakest...Read carefully: First is the ECB decision at 1145 GMT (7:45 EST, 15:....Ashraf reminds us that usually euro has advanced higher right after the decision....nbsp;....The ECB and BOC leaders will both be in the spotlight today and both are facing....EUR and CAD are both up about 10% from the March lows and both currencies are....20 and USD/CAD flirts with 1...30...The BOC decision was on Wednesday and it offered no hints on policy...Rates and QE were left unchanged as was the forward commitment to leaving rates....rdquo; The statement noted stronger economic activity but warned on pandemic....BOC Governor Macklem will take questions at 1630 GMT and currency strength is....Up first is the ECB decision at 1145 GMT and Lagarde's press conference at....Like Canada, nothing is expected at this meeting but there's a larger chance....At the same time, the economic data has been stronger than anticipated and....nbsp;....Interestingly, the BoC has usually adopted more of a laissez-faire stance....nbsp;....ECB chief economist Lane also put FX on the table on the same day EUR/USD hit 1...20 with a comment that “the euro-dollar rate does matter...rdquo; That helped to send the currency swiftly lower...More importantly, it raised expectations that Lagarde will offer some jawboning....If she stays silent, the default will be for the euro to rise...Overall, it sets up an interesting day ahead...Two rookie central bank leaders will be asked virtually the same question about....How they respond will be fascinating...Saying too much is a minefield that would beg for follow-up action or a loss....Saying too little would be an endorsement of unwanted currency....Finding the right balance is almost impossible.
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Intraday Market Thought: Intraday Trades around Deadlines
by Adam Button | Oct 22, 2020 16:33Gold and silver are on the backfoot, while NZD and JPY are in the lead...More riddles from Pelosi regarding the stimulus...Markets lick their wounds from reports of foreign interference in the US....nbsp; We now shift to tonight's Biden-Trump debate...GBP drops back after a strong Wednesday session Bitcoin retraces after Wednesday&....Below are some of today's trades on the WhatsApp Broadcast Group...nbsp;....With every bluff and missed deadline in Brexit negotiations the market looks....We highlighted earlier in the week that a deal was still an 80% likelihood but....The EU and UK put the latest spat aside and now will try to hammer out a deal....The same problems on fisheries, a level playing field and dispute resolution....For Johnson's part, he issued another threat, saying the UK was prepared to....Sterling certainly bough the headfake as it climbed to 1...3150 from 1...2950 in a break to the highest since September 7...Take it as a sign of a reactive market rather than one sniffing out political....There's a lesson there for the weeks ahead...In a larger breakout, Bitcoin soared through the August high and is nearing....It was a textbook break as it came on the big news that PayPal will let users....We await the details -- and fear a prohibitive fee structure – but it'....The day ahead features the final Trump-Biden debate...It's the final opportunity for Trump to swing a vote that appears to be getting....We take the latest rise in Treasury yields as a sign the market is betting.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Defence Cracks
by Adam Button | Dec 2, 2020 16:52
The increasing number of breakdowns on US dollar charts is impossible to ignore...On Tuesday, it was EUR/USD as the pair rose to the highest since 2018...Moments ago, it hit 1...2108...Many aspects are weighing on USD, but chief among them is the breakout in 10-....81% barrier to 1...85%, suggesting rising inflation expectations and a stronger case for....nbsp;Ashraf's tactical Premium short in EURUSD was stopped out, while the....nbsp; ....EUR/USD made a textbook break of the September high on Tuesday as the dollar....After running into sellers at 1...20 a day earlier, the pair broke through in a big way and continued above 1...2100...If the pair closes Wednesday above 1...2080/85, then the next target stands at 1...2160, followed by key resistance at 1...2195...nbsp;....Cable jumped by more than a full cent on Tuesday on reports that Brexit....nbsp;....Gold and Silver added to their gains, with Ashraf pointing out in the above....00 support in the Gold/Silver ratio represents the equivalent resistance in....More broadly, the US dollar looks soft on numerous fronts, including the....Even gold rebounded on Tuesday...The trigger was a bipartisan group in the senate coming together on a stimulus....It led to a jump in risk appetite but the biggest move might have been in 30-....66%....We're not in danger of a serious breakout on that front until 1...75% but market participants will be watching closely for follow-through...Along with higher yields, breakevens are also rising with the 10-year measure....85%, which is the highest since May 2019...It symbolizes rising market expectations of inflation and it was underscored by....Expect further USD weakness to persist if these break-even rates show no....nbsp;....In testimony Powell also remained dovish but it was notable that neither he nor....It's safe to say that the Fed isn't going to make a move of a duration....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Selling Facts & DXY Positioning
by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2021 18:16It's a holiday in the US and metals are recovering after opening sharply....A 'sell the fact' mood hit markets last week after Biden's big stimulus and....The pound was the top performer last week while the kiwi lagged...CFTC positioning data shows that USD shorts aren't losing their nerve despite....We turn to Yellen's Senate Hearings tomorrow...Below is the net short-positioning of DXY...nbsp;....The US is on holiday Monday so that may slow the start to the trading week...The main event this week is Biden's inauguration but barring something....The holiday gives us a chance to digest the huge stimulus proposal and the....So for the political reaction has been relatively positive but with Trump's....What did emerge on Friday was a poor retail sales report, down 1...4% in December compared to a flat reading expected...Worse yet, the prior was revised lower to -1...4% from -1...1%....There was an even larger miss and negative revision in the key 'control....Two soft months from the US consumer at the most-critical time of the year....nbsp; ....Early in the week, we will continue to evaluate the mood in the market...Treasury yields have retraced but the dollar has remained strong but that may....This week should offer a clearer picture on the underlying trends...Aside from comments from Biden, Treasury Secretary-nominee Yellen will appear in....She will testify that the US won't seek a weaker dollar, leaving it to the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +156K vs +143K prior...GBP +13K vs +4K prior...JPY +50K vs +50K prior...CHF +12K vs +9K prior...CAD +12K vs +14K prior...AUD +5K vs -4K prior...NZD +15K vs +12K prior...US dollar shorts are edged higher this week with AUD flipping back to a net.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Fed, BoE Step Back, Yields Push up
by Adam Button | Mar 18, 2021 18:01
Both of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England vowed to keep liquidity....The FOMC served up a surprise with the majority of the dots flat through 2023...Both USD and GBP fell sharply after their respective central banks'....Yet, it took little time for US 10 yr yields to regain 1...70% and hit a fresh 14-month high of 1...75%....nbsp; Below are the key support/resistance levels suggested for fading....nbsp;....The market and the FOMC are on different pages...The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a hike before the end of 2022 and the....Powell tried to explain that the new reaction function for the Fed is to wait....He also repeatedly emphasized that they view the expected reopening rise in....The dollar sank across the board; 40 pips initially and then it continued....USD/CAD fell to a fresh 3-year low in the seventh day of selling...The bond market struggled and long-dated yields initially rose on inflation....Naturally, stocks cheered the pledge for lower rates...In the bigger picture, Powell and the FOMC continue to set them up for a clash....He highlighted as much by saying that they won't achieve credibility on....So ultimately this push-and-pull between the Fed and markets will continue until....It's a poker game with market participants caught in between...For now, expect the dollar to remain under pressure on the dovish Fed and for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Dam Cracks, ECB Up Next
by Adam Button | Apr 22, 2021 12:15
Euro at the highs ahead of the ECB decision, with speculation of a possible....The Bank of Canada's decision to taper and hint at an earlier rate hike....The surprise move was a big boost to the Canadian dollar--biggest percentage....The ECB is up next...Announcement at 12:45 pm London, followed by the press conference 45 mins....Traders should expect lack of unanimity regarding the decision, during and after....nbsp;....As we warned here, the Bank of Canada dialed back QE to $3B/week from $4B/week....The market was not expecting that and what was a true surprise is that BOC....There was nothing like a dovish taper...Instead, the BOC boosted its Canadian GDP forecast to 6...5% this year from 4...0% and increased 2022 as well, while also raising the global growth view...At one point, USD/CAD had fallen 200 pips from pre-announcement levels...The market got caught leaning the wrong and the pair went from a one-month high....There was a modest bounce late to put the pair back at 1...25000 but the spot to watch now is the 1...2470-60 support zone for further follow through...The positive risk tone the emerged Wednesday will help but the loonie might....In the bigger picture, the turn in central banking has arrived...The ECB decision is up next and that might include a hint (or commitment) to....Eurozone data has far outpaced estimates over the past two months as the economy....In the ECB's case though it will be seen as more of a technical move or....The market will also be watching the Fed, RBA, and BoE to see who follows Canada...While this is a crack in the dam, it will break when one or two of those....When that happens, volatility in FX will dramatically increase.
