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Results: 691 to 700 of 1,000
Results: 691 to 700 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Bottom Up Update on USD, Gold, Silver
by Adam Button | Aug 6, 2020 22:39
The market continues to use its imagination surrounding US stimulus....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged...The July non-farm payrolls report is due up next...Ashraf has come up with a Bottom-Top approach to updating a Time-Price call....He dissects the triangularity of USD-pairs, USDX and gold with a time-based....nbsp;....Shortly after the jobs report on Friday, the market will shift to focusing on....As we wrote about earlier in the week, the market is sensing the strong hand....Republicans have proposed a $1 trillion package that includes a drop in special....Initially the thinking would be that they would split the difference, but....She estimates voters will blame the President and his party if a deal isn&....So far that's led to a deadlock...Pelosi said there will be a deal at some point but she doesn't appear to be....4 trillion in spending...Meanwhile, the White House is planning an executive order to delay payroll tax....There's no doubt the lack of benefits is already hitting consumer....How much patience does the market have? If the jobs report is weak, it could run....Underpinning USD bears was this week's US Treasury's quarterly refunding....Coupon sales were larger than expected and will be a record $112B next week...Swallowing all that supply pushed US 10-year yields up 3...6 bps to 0...547%....The rebound gave 10s some breathing room ahead of the key 0...50% level...The energy market is another spot to watch...Oil looked like it was breaking above its six-week in a WTI rally to $43...50, but the break couldn't be sustained in a decline back to $42.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Two Rookie C-Bank Leaders, One Question
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 10, 2020 12:23
The dollar resumed its fall on Wednesday as risk assets rebounded and two top....The Australian dollar led the way Wednesday while the yen lagged...Franc and the euro are the strongest and the Aussie is the weakest...Read carefully: First is the ECB decision at 1145 GMT (7:45 EST, 15:....Ashraf reminds us that usually euro has advanced higher right after the decision....nbsp;....The ECB and BOC leaders will both be in the spotlight today and both are facing....EUR and CAD are both up about 10% from the March lows and both currencies are....20 and USD/CAD flirts with 1...30...The BOC decision was on Wednesday and it offered no hints on policy...Rates and QE were left unchanged as was the forward commitment to leaving rates....rdquo; The statement noted stronger economic activity but warned on pandemic....BOC Governor Macklem will take questions at 1630 GMT and currency strength is....Up first is the ECB decision at 1145 GMT and Lagarde's press conference at....Like Canada, nothing is expected at this meeting but there's a larger chance....At the same time, the economic data has been stronger than anticipated and....nbsp;....Interestingly, the BoC has usually adopted more of a laissez-faire stance....nbsp;....ECB chief economist Lane also put FX on the table on the same day EUR/USD hit 1...20 with a comment that “the euro-dollar rate does matter...rdquo; That helped to send the currency swiftly lower...More importantly, it raised expectations that Lagarde will offer some jawboning....If she stays silent, the default will be for the euro to rise...Overall, it sets up an interesting day ahead...Two rookie central bank leaders will be asked virtually the same question about....How they respond will be fascinating...Saying too much is a minefield that would beg for follow-up action or a loss....Saying too little would be an endorsement of unwanted currency....Finding the right balance is almost impossible.
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Intraday Market Thought: Intraday Trades around Deadlines
by Adam Button | Oct 22, 2020 16:33Gold and silver are on the backfoot, while NZD and JPY are in the lead...More riddles from Pelosi regarding the stimulus...Markets lick their wounds from reports of foreign interference in the US....nbsp; We now shift to tonight's Biden-Trump debate...GBP drops back after a strong Wednesday session Bitcoin retraces after Wednesday&....Below are some of today's trades on the WhatsApp Broadcast Group...nbsp;....With every bluff and missed deadline in Brexit negotiations the market looks....We highlighted earlier in the week that a deal was still an 80% likelihood but....The EU and UK put the latest spat aside and now will try to hammer out a deal....The same problems on fisheries, a level playing field and dispute resolution....For Johnson's part, he issued another threat, saying the UK was prepared to....Sterling certainly bough the headfake as it climbed to 1...3150 from 1...2950 in a break to the highest since September 7...Take it as a sign of a reactive market rather than one sniffing out political....There's a lesson there for the weeks ahead...In a larger breakout, Bitcoin soared through the August high and is nearing....It was a textbook break as it came on the big news that PayPal will let users....We await the details -- and fear a prohibitive fee structure – but it'....The day ahead features the final Trump-Biden debate...It's the final opportunity for Trump to swing a vote that appears to be getting....We take the latest rise in Treasury yields as a sign the market is betting.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Defence Cracks
by Adam Button | Dec 2, 2020 16:52
The increasing number of breakdowns on US dollar charts is impossible to ignore...On Tuesday, it was EUR/USD as the pair rose to the highest since 2018...Moments ago, it hit 1...2108...Many aspects are weighing on USD, but chief among them is the breakout in 10-....81% barrier to 1...85%, suggesting rising inflation expectations and a stronger case for....nbsp;Ashraf's tactical Premium short in EURUSD was stopped out, while the....nbsp; ....EUR/USD made a textbook break of the September high on Tuesday as the dollar....After running into sellers at 1...20 a day earlier, the pair broke through in a big way and continued above 1...2100...If the pair closes Wednesday above 1...2080/85, then the next target stands at 1...2160, followed by key resistance at 1...2195...nbsp;....Cable jumped by more than a full cent on Tuesday on reports that Brexit....nbsp;....Gold and Silver added to their gains, with Ashraf pointing out in the above....00 support in the Gold/Silver ratio represents the equivalent resistance in....More broadly, the US dollar looks soft on numerous fronts, including the....Even gold rebounded on Tuesday...The trigger was a bipartisan group in the senate coming together on a stimulus....It led to a jump in risk appetite but the biggest move might have been in 30-....66%....We're not in danger of a serious breakout on that front until 1...75% but market participants will be watching closely for follow-through...Along with higher yields, breakevens are also rising with the 10-year measure....85%, which is the highest since May 2019...It symbolizes rising market expectations of inflation and it was underscored by....Expect further USD weakness to persist if these break-even rates show no....nbsp;....In testimony Powell also remained dovish but it was notable that neither he nor....It's safe to say that the Fed isn't going to make a move of a duration....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Selling Facts & DXY Positioning
by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2021 18:16It's a holiday in the US and metals are recovering after opening sharply....A 'sell the fact' mood hit markets last week after Biden's big stimulus and....The pound was the top performer last week while the kiwi lagged...CFTC positioning data shows that USD shorts aren't losing their nerve despite....We turn to Yellen's Senate Hearings tomorrow...Below is the net short-positioning of DXY...nbsp;....The US is on holiday Monday so that may slow the start to the trading week...The main event this week is Biden's inauguration but barring something....The holiday gives us a chance to digest the huge stimulus proposal and the....So for the political reaction has been relatively positive but with Trump's....What did emerge on Friday was a poor retail sales report, down 1...4% in December compared to a flat reading expected...Worse yet, the prior was revised lower to -1...4% from -1...1%....There was an even larger miss and negative revision in the key 'control....Two soft months from the US consumer at the most-critical time of the year....nbsp; ....Early in the week, we will continue to evaluate the mood in the market...Treasury yields have retraced but the dollar has remained strong but that may....This week should offer a clearer picture on the underlying trends...Aside from comments from Biden, Treasury Secretary-nominee Yellen will appear in....She will testify that the US won't seek a weaker dollar, leaving it to the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +156K vs +143K prior...GBP +13K vs +4K prior...JPY +50K vs +50K prior...CHF +12K vs +9K prior...CAD +12K vs +14K prior...AUD +5K vs -4K prior...NZD +15K vs +12K prior...US dollar shorts are edged higher this week with AUD flipping back to a net.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Fed, BoE Step Back, Yields Push up
by Adam Button | Mar 18, 2021 18:01
Both of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England vowed to keep liquidity....The FOMC served up a surprise with the majority of the dots flat through 2023...Both USD and GBP fell sharply after their respective central banks'....Yet, it took little time for US 10 yr yields to regain 1...70% and hit a fresh 14-month high of 1...75%....nbsp; Below are the key support/resistance levels suggested for fading....nbsp;....The market and the FOMC are on different pages...The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a hike before the end of 2022 and the....Powell tried to explain that the new reaction function for the Fed is to wait....He also repeatedly emphasized that they view the expected reopening rise in....The dollar sank across the board; 40 pips initially and then it continued....USD/CAD fell to a fresh 3-year low in the seventh day of selling...The bond market struggled and long-dated yields initially rose on inflation....Naturally, stocks cheered the pledge for lower rates...In the bigger picture, Powell and the FOMC continue to set them up for a clash....He highlighted as much by saying that they won't achieve credibility on....So ultimately this push-and-pull between the Fed and markets will continue until....It's a poker game with market participants caught in between...For now, expect the dollar to remain under pressure on the dovish Fed and for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Dam Cracks, ECB Up Next
by Adam Button | Apr 22, 2021 12:15
Euro at the highs ahead of the ECB decision, with speculation of a possible....The Bank of Canada's decision to taper and hint at an earlier rate hike....The surprise move was a big boost to the Canadian dollar--biggest percentage....The ECB is up next...Announcement at 12:45 pm London, followed by the press conference 45 mins....Traders should expect lack of unanimity regarding the decision, during and after....nbsp;....As we warned here, the Bank of Canada dialed back QE to $3B/week from $4B/week....The market was not expecting that and what was a true surprise is that BOC....There was nothing like a dovish taper...Instead, the BOC boosted its Canadian GDP forecast to 6...5% this year from 4...0% and increased 2022 as well, while also raising the global growth view...At one point, USD/CAD had fallen 200 pips from pre-announcement levels...The market got caught leaning the wrong and the pair went from a one-month high....There was a modest bounce late to put the pair back at 1...25000 but the spot to watch now is the 1...2470-60 support zone for further follow through...The positive risk tone the emerged Wednesday will help but the loonie might....In the bigger picture, the turn in central banking has arrived...The ECB decision is up next and that might include a hint (or commitment) to....Eurozone data has far outpaced estimates over the past two months as the economy....In the ECB's case though it will be seen as more of a technical move or....The market will also be watching the Fed, RBA, and BoE to see who follows Canada...While this is a crack in the dam, it will break when one or two of those....When that happens, volatility in FX will dramatically increase.
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Intraday Market Thought: Eye on Motionless July & Real Yields
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2021 12:00
Half the year is done with the Canadian dollar at the top of the leaderboard and....Some of that unwound on Tuesday despite a positive risk backdrop in a hint that....We take a closer look at July seasonal patterns...The US June ADP survey is up next, exp 600K from prev 978K, more on this below...15 mins later, Canada's April GDP follows...The chart below shows gold struggles to hold above the crucial support of 1760/3,....nbsp;....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;....We got more evidence of a strong recovery building as we ramp up for a....The June US consumer confidence report from the Conference Board was at 127...3 compared to 119...1 expected with the 'present situation' component jumping...Deeper down in the report, the 'jobs plentiful' metric also rose to the....The Fed's Barkin pointed to Aug and Sept as months when he expects to see....For July, the risk backdrop continues to improve with the S&P 500 closing....In the month ahead, the seasonals continue to be positive...July is the fifth best month on average over the past 20 years but is second....More broadly, there are much fewer seasonal signals in July...In fact, the average move in the Dollar Index in the past 20 years is precisely....There is some fractional strength in the commodity currencies but not as much as....The day ahead on the economic calendar is a busy one...The ADP jobs report is up at 1215 GMT/13:15 London/16:15 Dubai but note that its....Canadian GDP for April will be released at the same time but CAD risks may be....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: A Receptive Audience for now
by Adam Button | Nov 9, 2021 12:51
A measure of the extent of market uncertainty about inflation is revealed....A heavy dose of Fedspeak on Monday delivered a consistent message about....With PPI coming up next and CPI on Wednesday, the debate is just getting....Bond bulls are also cheering the possibility that the dovish Lail....Not that Powell is hawkish, but Brainard is as rates friendly as central banner....And most importantly, real yields are hitting lows everywhere, as inflation....The WhatsApp Broadcast Group were informed to restart gold longs near....nbsp; Ashraf began highlighiting the importance of real yields for gold....Markets turned last week after Powell and other top global central bankers....Many market participants disagree but middling levels of conviction are....The reason that traders have been saying 'don't fight the Fed' for....The stakes in the inflation debate are enormous and it will ultimately be the....With that in mind, PPI and CPI in the next two days loom large...PPI can at times offer clues to the PPI report so we'll be watching closely....Other signals come from markets, where yields have moved back into a range....A potential is also in play above the series of summer tops stretching to..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Longest 30 Minutes
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 16, 2022 16:39
Many of you remember those historical analysis showing how the US dollar....Depending on which “USD Index” you're using, some analysis....Here is a not-so recent analysis...While there is a 13% chance of a 50-bp rate hike (surprised it's this low)....What about the number/magnitude of Fed hikes between now and July? Or, balance....Currently, markets are pricing five 25-bp rate hikes for the year, with over 50%....We could expect a clear hawkish adjustment to these expectations in the....But there is always the press conference...Any dovish market interpretations will likely emerge from Powell stating his....This latter option should get a mention in the Q&A...Like I always said, market defining developments have usually emerged 10-15....This could entail a hawkish counterbalance to the mere 25-bp hike in....All of the above should make the 30 minutes between the release of the Fed....But these swings could pale in comparison to the habitual clinching....nbsp;....And if you think that by Thursday you got the Fed and US dollar figured out,....Not only we should hear more news about a possible ceasefire/agreement between....nbsp;....The combination of these forces with the broadening reality that any pullback....We've already told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members, which pairs are....nbsp; ....nbsp;..
