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Intraday Market Thought: Durable Disappointment, Trump Changes Agenda

by Adam Button | Feb 27, 2017 22:40
Monday was another day of confused trading as the dollar was hit by soft....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...Japanese industrial production data is due later...A new USD trades has been issued to the Premium Insights ahead of Trump's....The charts and notes of the trade shall be posted ahead of the Tokyo Tuesday....The headline didn't tell the story on US January durable goods orders...They rose 1...8% in the month compared to the 1...7% consensus but that masks a revision to December to -0...8% from -0...5%....Moreover, the key component on non-defense capital goods orders ex-air was....4% compared to a 0...5% rise expected...US pending home sales data also missed estimates later...The data put a negative bias into the US dollar but was lifted by Trump...Some disappointment set in as the administration shifted the focus of....Trump said a tax plan can't come until the cost of healthcare changes are....The disappointment on taxes was balanced by Trump hinting about big spending on....What's happening in the background is that various parts of the Republican....Trump had laid out something like taxes, Obamacare, infrastructure but that....There is room for disappointment there but until negative details emerge, the....With Trump largely taking himself off this week's agenda, the focus may....Fed hike odds have crept up to 40% in what increasingly looks like it will be....Looking ahead, Asia-Pacific traders will focus on Japanese industrial production....The consensus is for a 0...3% m/m rise after a 0...7% climb previously...Retail sales, construction orders and housing starts are also due later...For Australia, Q4 current account data is due at 0030 GMT...As it stands, the Australian dollar is the best performer in February.
Intraday Market Thought: The Big Day

by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2017 23:52
The next two days feature a non-stop schedule of trading risks that we will....Perhaps reflecting the uncertainty, the yen was the top performer on Tuesday....nbsp;The new video for Premium subscribers has been posted in the....تمركز الصفقات قبيل الفدرالي(للمشتركين فقط)....Market moves on Tuesday reflected some trepidation with so much on the upcoming....The S&P 500 fell 8 points and the yen held a modest bid...The day ahead features the Dutch election, FOMC decision and data on US....The underrated risk might be the US economic numbers...Retail sales have been one of the few soft spots so far in 2017 and anyone....The same goes for inflation, which is forecast to rise 2...2% y/y excluding food and energy...nbsp;....The Fed decision itself is largely a non-event...They will hike rates but those data points could affect the statement and....They may also raise concerns in the markets or solidify the excitement about....A clue may have come from Tuesday's PPI report...It showed prices up 0...3% m/m compared to 0...1% expected...One of the focuses in the Fed decision will be the dot plot but it's tough....It already shows the median forecasting three hikes in 2017 and we struggle to....Along the same lines, Yellen may be more constructive but it's not in her....Remember that only two weeks ago the market was pricing in only a 35% chance....The main euro risk will be the Dutch vote...Anti-EU populist candidate Wilders' party was leading at the start of the....He's now expected to finish in second place with about 22 seats...Whether he does better or worse will drive sentiment on what happens next...All other parties have vowed not to work with him and it's inconceivable he....No matter what the outcome, it will be difficult for any party to cobble....But in the day ahead, the euro trade will be guided by Wilders'....As we digest the fallout from those events, we'll be looking forward to..
Intraday Market Thought: Fed Brushes Off Q1

by Adam Button | May 3, 2017 23:15
The Fed brushed off a weak first quarter and that was seen as a signal that....The US dollar led the way while the Australian dollar lagged to a 3-month....Australian trade balance and comments from Lowe are out next...The Premium long in GBPJPY was closed with a 205-pip gain as a tactical....7 trades remain progress...The Fed didn't offer anything new in the way of guidance in Wednesday's....The same 'gradual' language remained without committing to a....But that's not how the market took it...The probability of a June hike rose to 93% from 70% after the statement...What the market latched onto was a line saying that the slowdown in Q1 growth....The assumption is that the Fed is brushing it off and still wants to hike....That may turn out to be true but not if data continues to miss...At 93%, it doesn't leave much room for error...On the data front – at least on the soft data front – the Fed got....The April ISM non-manufacturing index was at 57...5 vs 55...8 expected...In addition, the new orders component was at the best level in 11 years,....2 from 58...9...That will help convince the Fed that good growth is still right around the....The other main release was ADP employment at 177K compared to 175K....In the bigger picture, we're increasingly convinced that jobs growth....Yesterday's New Zealand jobs numbers were extremely strong with unemployment....9% from 5...2% a great jobs growth overall...The kiwi initially jumped 30 pips but was sold heavily for the remainder of....Expect the market to have the same focus on wages in Friday's non-farm....The principal question is: Can a tight labour market still producer wage growth....The kiwi fell alongside AUD/USD which wiped out three days of gains and fell....Up next is the 0130 GMT trade balance report; it's expected to show a $A3...25m surplus...The bigger potential market mover comes at 0310 GMT when Governor Lowe speaks on....That topic sounds ripe for hawkish comments but even if that's the case..
Intraday Market Thought: Uncertain Fed & Uncertain UK Politics

by Adam Button | May 31, 2017 0:08
The Fed's Brainard gave the strongest hint yet that low inflation....The New Zealand dollar led the way, while the Canadian dollar lagged...A UK election polls sent the pound plunging in early Asia-Pacific trade...The latest video for Premium subscribers is found below...The April PCE report had something for everyone...The dollar initially rallied on the headlines because core PCE rose 0...2% m/m, slightly more than the +0...1% consensus...USD/JPY ticked 25 pips higher to 111...20 but that was the high for US trading...Weighing on the dollar was a decline in year-over-year core inflation to 1...5% from 1...6%....It was expected but it extends the trend of slipping core inflation...Downward revisions to personal income also weighed but were balanced by rosy....The change of a June hike rose to 88% from 84% according to the CME's....A big reason is because of eroding faith in longer term rate hikes...Later in the day, the Fed's Brainard warned the FOMC may need to reassess....For the moment, she said it was premature to make that call and that'....But along with that hike, the statement is now more likely to include language....The bond market is now beginning to question whether those hikes will come....The 10-year yield fell 3...7 bps to 2...21% and is closing in on the post-election low of 2...16%....The US dollar is following yields lower...Meanwhile, the pound took a sharp spill briefly below 1...28 in early Asia-Pacific trading...The trigger was a poll from YouGov that modeled the distribution of votes across....It showed Theresa May's Conservatives winning but falling 16....That would seriously jeopardize Brexit negotiations and cripple the government...From here, the focus will shift to China where the official PMIs are due at 0100....The manufacturing measure is forecast to slip to 51...0 from 51...2...the prior non-manufacturing reading was 54...0...Note that it's also the final trading day of the month so flows could..
Intraday Market Thought: Fine Fed Lines To Be Drawn

by Adam Button | Jun 13, 2017 23:25
A rate hike is virtually certain in the day ahead but the communication that....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Chinese and Japanese industrial production data is up next...The English video ahead of the Fed for Premium subscribers was posted yesterday...الإسترليني، الذهب و المؤشر المجهول (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....A hike Wednesday is 95% priced in but beyond that is a mystery...Earlier this year, the debate was about three or four hikes but given the soft....For September a 28% chance of another hike is priced in and for December it&....The market will search for clarity in the statement, forecasts, dot plots and....Most believe Yellen will signal some kind of wait-and-see stance that makes....Alternatively, the Fed could continue to insist that better numbers are right....That would be consistent with their previous stance but it would go against....Ultimately, how the market reacts will depend on how any shift is communicated...In the March dot plot, 5 members saw a total of four hikes in 2017, 9 saw three,....It would require six members to shift from three hikes to two in order to move....But the dot plot may not be the sole medium...The statement is also a complex means to signal a shift towards a more....A slight change in the line saying “The Committee expects that....If there are no clear changes, expect the US dollar to rally on the headlines,....The chances of confusion and choppy trading are high, be sure to follow....Before the Fed, the focus is on China with May retail sales and industrial....Consumers continue to spending with sale forecast to rise 10...7% y/y while industrial production is forecast to rise 6...4%....Impressively, Japan was almost able to keep pace with the industrial growth in....April production rose 5...7% in the preliminary report and final data is expected to show similar growth...Don't expect significant market moves on the Chinese or Japanese data..
Intraday Market Thought: None Wants a Strong Currency

by Adam Button | Aug 1, 2017 23:36
The RBA statement on Tuesday highlighted the conundrum at central banks –....Lowe did his best to salt in some jawboning and AUD/USD fell in the....NZD is falling fast in early Wednesday Asia...after NZ Q2 employment contracted 0...2% q/q vs expectations of +0...8%....The chart belows shows all currencies are up vs the USD so far this year, with....US data were neutral to negative...June core PCE price index held at 1...5%....July manufacturing ISM slipped to 56...3 from 57...8, with prices paid up to 62 from 55...0 and employment off to 55...2 from 57...2...June construction fell 1...3% vs expectations for a rise with net downward revisions, which means a....The RBA statement said a stronger Australian dollar would restrain growth....It's not as strong as previous comments that explicitly warned of the....It means that if AUD/USD rises further, rate hikes will be pushed out further,....The other standout in the RBA statement is downcast commentary on wage inflation...Lowe made several references to low wage growth and said it will continue for a....A widening gulf between central banks may be growing -- Some have grown tepid....That's a reflection of a change in global dynamics, offshoring and....Other central banks believe it's only a matter of time until wages pick....Since the same factors are in play everywhere, both sides can't be....What strikes us is that forecasting low wage growth may be more effective in....The risk is that if you're wrong about wages, you might have an inflation....That's a risk worth taking or at the very least, it may mean more central....Such a collective shift to the sidelines could have the greatest impact on FX,....That said, we don't see signs of strong or shifting rhetoric on the wage..
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Has a Catalyst

by Adam Button | Nov 28, 2017 22:55
Separate reports suggested UK PM Theresa May's government is close to a....Cable jumped on the headlines and was the top performer on the day while the....Japanese retail sales are due up next...2nd EURUSD trade has been issued...Tomorrow marks Janet Yellen's final testimony to Congress' joint....The video for Premium subscribers is posted below, highlighting the existing....nbsp;....It was a lively day of trading that included heavy newsflow...The pound suffered early and cable was down more than a cent when a Telegraph....Cable jumped more than 120 pips then fell back down when a government....A second report, this time from the FT, added more detail, indicating the deal....That sent cable near 1...3400 from as low as 1...3220 on the day...More importantly, it's a fresh catalyst for cable...If confirmed, it's a sign that negotiations are bearing fruit and....At this point, nearly any kind of resolution or progress is good for....Across the Atlantic, the US dollar was buoyed by economic data as consumer....New home sales also beat expectations, but trade and inventory reports led to....The tax plan also made progress but once again that buoyed stock markets while....The S&P 500 surged 26 points to a record 2627...In geopolitical news, North Korea tested a missile but the dip was merely a....Amidst all that, Fed chair nominee Powell was grilled in his confirmation....On monetary policy, he did his best Yellen impression and said gradual rate....At the same time, he struck a few dovish notes by warning on low wage inflation....Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor the North Korea fallout but also....The consensus is for a +0...2% m/m rise after a 0...8% m/m jump in Sept...Comments from the BOJ's Nakaso are also due at 0700 GMT.
Intraday Market Thought: Crucial Trading Week Ahead

by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 11, 2018 21:04
Here is why this week will be the most important for financial markets so far....Aside from the Fed rate hike and ECB press conference on Wednesday and....nbsp; The video for Premium susbcribers is found below...Kicking off all these events on Tuesday will be the much anticipated Trump- Kim....Aside from the historical element to the meeting, no breakthrough is expected....It's in the interest of both sides to get a deal, yet more so for Trump...Tuesday will also see the UK jobs and earnings data, followed by the US CPI....GBP traders shall await important developments in the lower House of....The votes will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday...Wednesday's release of the UK May CPI will shed light on whether inflation....0% level, which will help determined odds of an August rate hike, which....nbsp;....The 2nd Fed hike of the year is expected on Wednesday alongside the dot plot....Fed chair Powell's press conference will be thoroughly monitored and....Thursday's ECB press conference should reveal whether the ECB will....Is the recent rise in inflation and weakness in the euro sufficient to....Thursday's Aussie employment data will be vital for AUD traders, fixated....Will any increase in net employment above 10K will be mostly from full-time....6%....The FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday with the opening game between Russia....Friday's Bank of Japan decision is the least important of all central banks....nbsp;....Don't forget my Tuesday webinar previewing my trades ahead of the week...Click here to register.
Intraday Market Thought: Political Calculus and Calamity

by Adam Button | Nov 19, 2018 15:00
Theresa May's government hangs by a thread and a leadership challenge could....The reports of plots and discord put the pound at risk in the new week...Early moves put AUD lower on renewed US-China tensions...The new GBP trade is on...We often wonder whether the UK Conservatives are a political party or a....The party splintered once again this week after May unveiled an exit deal...The most-damaging blow came from Dominick Raab who quit after she....Raab then immediately pivoted to serenading the UK press with interviews....He clearly believes a leadership challenge is coming...May likely believes that she can survive or avoid a challenge...All sides are counting votes with all outcomes dependent on roughly a dozen....The first question to answer is whether 48 Conservatives will write letters....If so, that would set off an automatic leadership challenge...So far, 26 letters have been made public...Raab has said he shall not write such a letter, and that may be a hint that he&....If it is, the UK press reports that Tuesday could be the day and that would....If the deadline passes, look for GBP shorts to cover...The next question is if the 48 letters are produced, would Theresa May survive....At least a half-dozen Conservatives would have a chance to win, but do they....And this fact is increasingly known...What might motivate May to battle on is that if she survives a challenge she....Whether she wins or someone else takes her place, parliament will soon have a....A loss would raise a separate set of questions including an election, another....All those options add to the uncertainty discount in GBP but that final....Ultimately, that's still a remote possibility because it's such a....In other weekend news, the APEC summit ended without a statement for the first....Pence ramped up tension with China saying the US was prepared to more than....Risk trades aren't like to respond positively to that with the Trump-Xi..
Intraday Market Thought: Ceasefire & Surge

by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2018 15:08
An agreement by the US to hold off on any additional tariffs on China for 90....AUD and CAD were the top performers over the last 12 hours, while the pound....Gold and silver are posting their 4th biggest daily gain of the year...nbsp; CFTC positioning showed more euro shorts...Before we get to Friday's US and Canada jobs figures, note that Fed chair....Thursday's evening's Premium long on the Dow hit the final entry at....nbsp; A new trade has just been issued moments ago before this post...The US said it will hold off from any additional and planned tariffs on China....Heading into the weekend, there was a risk of a blowup after the Xi-Trump....For China, the strategy continues to try to minimize the damage and run out the....This is a small step towards that and a sign that they are open to more-....The US-China story buried a surprise in the G20 statement...Leaders pledged to reform the WTO in a nod indicating emerging markets are less....Negotiations will undoubtedly be contentious and WTO changes always take....Early market moves were hefty with NZD/USD climbing 1% and AUD/USD up 0...6% in a broad jump in risk trades...nbsp; Metals pushed higher, led by copper attempting a break of the....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -55K vs -47K prior...GBP -39K vs -43K prior...JPY -104K vs -100K prior...CHF -21K vs -20K prior...CAD -9K vs -6K prior...AUD -54K vs -59K prior...NZD -21K vs -19K prior....Euro shorts have increased by more than 40% in the past two weeks as the market....The risk is that the ECB once again uses the 'delay and pray' strategy....General Trade Ideas....Here's a video that Ashraf shared with a group of traders at a dinner on....Some of the trade ideas may be new for some, not so for others...Full video.