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Results: 711 to 720 of 1,000
Results: 711 to 720 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: EUR Cheers Hollandexit, More Cheers to Come?
by Adam Button | Dec 2, 2016 0:03
The final month of the year has arrived and over the past 16 years, that's....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Australian retail sales are up next...The Premium trades in oil and GBPUSD were stopped out...A new trade in a US index has been issued, joining 2 existing index....Markets cheering the exit of a world leader is a special kind of slap in the....But it was one that French President Hollande received on Thursday when he....The euro extended its rally by more than 30 pips to cap off a 70-pip gain and....The euro is coming off a brutal drop in November as the US dollar surged but one....Since the euro's inception, December has been easily the best month...It's gained an average of nearly 2%....Last year the euro bottomed on December 2 at 1...0563 then finished the month 3...26% higher...The triggers then were the ECB and Fed...With both on the calendar and the euro with support below, it's possible we....Here are some other December seasonal trends:....It's the second-worst month for cable...It's the best month for EUR/GBP longs...AUD/USD often struggles in December...Bonds sag in December...December is the second-best month for the S&P 500...In the short term, the market will be focused on the Australian dollar and the....The consensus is for a 0...3% rise following the 0...6% jump in September.
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Intraday Market Thought: 2016 Stats, Notes and Themes
by Adam Button | Jan 2, 2017 18:14
The Brexit vote was the predominant market mover in 2016 but it was a year....As we get ready for a new year, here is a look at the numbers that mattered in....Three major currencies outperformed the US dollar in 2016: The New Zealand....The new Premium members video has 5 trading ideas...One of our existing AUD trade is +210 pips in the green...Gaining 2...96% in 2016, the Canadian dollar was the top performer of the year, narrowly....The loonie didn't get much attention in 2016 but after a dismal start to the....Still, it was the first CAD gains against USD since 2012 when it began....Broadening the FX universe, BRL, RUB and ZAR were the big winners...The pound was easily the worst performer, falling 16...26% against the US dollar in its worst year since 2008...It was distantly followed by the euro at -3...18%....The S&P 500 gained 9...54% -- all of it coming in the final weeks of the year after the election....Donald Trump's inauguration day is Jan 20 and the rip in markets raises the....In the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has been in an 8-year bull market, which....The cumulative gain since the 2009 bottom is now 235%....Adjusted for currency moves, the S&P 500 was only the third best performing....It was bested by Canada's TSX (+21...34%) and Brazil's bovespa (+68...92%....The performance of metals didn't get the attention they deserved but that&....Since July, gold and silver both lagged but still managed to put up respective 8%....Given the strength of the dollar, that's an extra-impressive feat...Three other stories to watch in 2017....The big turn in bonds...A +30 year bull market in bonds is suddenly in jeopardy but it declines won&....Chinese yuan...Donald Trump is headed for a showdown with Beijing...The yuan fell 6...5% in 2016 and whether it's attacking FX policy or trade, the US and....OPEC...WTI finished the year up 46% and close to the best levels of the year...OPEC is the big reason for the rally and starting Jan 1 the quotas are in place...How long until the cracks appear?....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Horse Left Out
by Adam Button | Jan 25, 2017 23:46
The three market horsemen of the Trump election win were rising stocks, rising....The pound was the top performer Wednesday while the Australian dollar....New Zealand is in focus with CPI out and Wheeler to speak; Australia is closed....GBPJPY was once again stopped out, leaving 5 Premium trades in....We are carefully watching the latest 2 days in gold and silver before a new....The market is gaining confidence in Donald Trump's agenda but it isn'....The S&P 500 hit a record high for a second consecutive day in an 18 point....The Dow also finally broke 20,000...In the bond market, the 10-year yield rose 5 bps to 2...51% after a weak 5-year auction...That's the sort of recipe that would normally give the US dollar a boost but....USD/JPY fell a half-cent on the day, while the pound and loonie each gained....Part of the reason is that US yields haven't risen in a vacuum...Global yields are moving higher with most benchmark yields near the highest....Markets suddenly believe that a new, higher combination of inflation and....That's mostly based on hope and expectations of government spending....What's curious is that the US is undoubtedly on the front end of that....The Fed is already in a hiking cycle and fiscal spending in some form is coming...So the dollar should be climbing...The reason the dollar might be struggling ties back to yesterday's....Parts of the market are warming up to Trump but the past two days of S&P....There is a disbelief in Trump, if not a disgust/exhaustion from international....In separate comments on immigration Wednesday he pledged to build a wall and....At the end of the day, likeability is still a factor...What we don't want to miss is the short-term upside...Protectionism and wasteful spending are long-term drags but in the short term....That's a dollar positive...So while the market is in denial in the short-term, higher rates, stocks and....At the same time, we remain watchful of data, especially inflation...New Zealand released Q4 numbers early in Asia and the showed a 0...4% q/q price rise compared to 0...3% expected.
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Intraday Market Thought: Import Tax Confusion
by Adam Button | Jan 26, 2017 23:27
The surprise of the first working week of Trump's administration was how....The dollar played some catch up on the day to lead the way while the yen lagged...Japanese CPI is due up next...The Dow short was stopped out and 4 trades remain in progress (3 in FX and 1....The bar for Trump's team was low coming into the week...The spat over inauguration crowd sizes was a poor start but after meetings with....We wrote earlier in the week that the early part of his Presidency will be all....The early returns were good but it started to unravel on Thursday as the....It didn;t add up...With more than $300 billion in annual imports from Mexico a tariff would....It was compounded by the White House saying Trump favored a 20% import tax on....Hours later, Republicans walked back the suggestion, saying it was one of just a....The process of floating ideas then adjusting, backtracking or changing them....Ultimately, the market has shown it will give Trump plenty of rope but fumbles....Otherwise US trading wasn't overly volatile...New home sales and initial jobless claims were weak but the Markit services....The latter probably adds 0...2 pp to Friday's advance US GDP reading and some upside risk into Friday....Before that comes the December Japanese CPI reading...The 0...2% y/y rise expected will be slower than 0...5% in November and will serve as a reminder that the BOJ remains far from..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Reverses, AUD Jobs Next
by Adam Button | Feb 15, 2017 22:40
Signs that better post-election confidence is beginning to translate....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...The Australian jobs report is due up next...A new metals trade has been added to the Premium Insights, supported by three....The general arc of an improving economy is that sentiment surveys improve first...That's followed by hard data but not always...Sometimes economic confidence fades and the expected growth pickup never....The US dollar rallied along with sentiment after the election but it....Hand-in-hand with that was uncertainty about what the new administration would....In the past week, Trump's 'phenomenal' tax plan offered a....Today's January retail sales report was the best evidence yet...Ex-autos and gas rose 0...7% compared to a flat reading expected...The December report was also revised higher...Along with that report, CPI beat estimates and the Empire Fed was at 18...7 compared to 7...0 expected...Initially, the US dollar surged as the probability of a March Fed climbed above....But there are signs the market has unanswered questions...A big one is wages as January year-over-year real wages were flat compared to a....8% rise in December...That's the kind of statistic that offers the Fed plenty of opportunity for....In addition, higher CPI is largely an artifact from the oil price recovery and....Finally, not all the data was good with January industrial production down 0...3% compared to a flat reading expected...The US dollar began to reverse and went on to fall 50-80 pips from its peak...Overall, the data is still trending in the right direction but the market still....For now, this might just be a blip but it demonstrates how conflicted the....Meanwhile, it's full steam ahead for stocks as the S&P 500 hit a record....One chart that appears to be breaking out is AUD/USD as the bulls finally took....7700...But it could be a short-lived victory if today's jobs report struggles...The consensus estimate is for 10K new jobs with unemployment flat at 5...8%....If the numbers are strong, however, expect a break of the Nov 8 high of 0...7778 in what would be a 10-month high...The data is due at 0030 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indecision Time
by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2017 23:10
What breaks the deadlock? The past week demonstrated that strong economic data....The yen was the top performer on the week while the pound lagged but the....1 of the 3 USD Premium trades was closed at a profit, leaving 2 USD trades in....So what are we waiting for? Is it clarity on Trump's currency policy?....Yellen was more hawkish but the dollar shrugged...So we're left to continue focusing on politics but we're also keeping....An alternative view is inflation...If we take the view that all governments are poised to spend more in order to....But it might be uneven...Conceivably, countries closing borders may lose out on trade and experience....But overall that strikes as an uncertain and slow-moving factor...Emerging markets are also in the crosshairs...One fact of globalization that's in little dispute is that it has boosted....A retrenchment in trade is inherently negative and it creates an endless....Taking a wider view, everyone is struggling with these questions but it&....As the search continues, we will keep a close watch on technicals...In terms of economic data, the week begins with New Zealand PPI and Japanese....Note that it's a holiday in North America so trading may remain....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Forex speculative futures positioning...denotes net long; - denotes net short....EUR -47K vs -45K prior...GBP -66K vs -64K prior...JPY -51K vs -55K prior...CHF -11K vs -14K prior...CAD +19K vs +8K prior...AUD +24K vs +17K prior...NZD +3K vs +1K prior....The commodity currencies extended the slow burn of the past month...The Australian and Canadian dollars continue to flirt with breakouts.
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Intraday Market Thought: Durable Disappointment, Trump Changes Agenda
by Adam Button | Feb 27, 2017 22:40
Monday was another day of confused trading as the dollar was hit by soft....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...Japanese industrial production data is due later...A new USD trades has been issued to the Premium Insights ahead of Trump's....The charts and notes of the trade shall be posted ahead of the Tokyo Tuesday....The headline didn't tell the story on US January durable goods orders...They rose 1...8% in the month compared to the 1...7% consensus but that masks a revision to December to -0...8% from -0...5%....Moreover, the key component on non-defense capital goods orders ex-air was....4% compared to a 0...5% rise expected...US pending home sales data also missed estimates later...The data put a negative bias into the US dollar but was lifted by Trump...Some disappointment set in as the administration shifted the focus of....Trump said a tax plan can't come until the cost of healthcare changes are....The disappointment on taxes was balanced by Trump hinting about big spending on....What's happening in the background is that various parts of the Republican....Trump had laid out something like taxes, Obamacare, infrastructure but that....There is room for disappointment there but until negative details emerge, the....With Trump largely taking himself off this week's agenda, the focus may....Fed hike odds have crept up to 40% in what increasingly looks like it will be....Looking ahead, Asia-Pacific traders will focus on Japanese industrial production....The consensus is for a 0...3% m/m rise after a 0...7% climb previously...Retail sales, construction orders and housing starts are also due later...For Australia, Q4 current account data is due at 0030 GMT...As it stands, the Australian dollar is the best performer in February.
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Intraday Market Thought: The Big Day
by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2017 23:52
The next two days feature a non-stop schedule of trading risks that we will....Perhaps reflecting the uncertainty, the yen was the top performer on Tuesday....nbsp;The new video for Premium subscribers has been posted in the....تمركز الصفقات قبيل الفدرالي(للمشتركين فقط)....Market moves on Tuesday reflected some trepidation with so much on the upcoming....The S&P 500 fell 8 points and the yen held a modest bid...The day ahead features the Dutch election, FOMC decision and data on US....The underrated risk might be the US economic numbers...Retail sales have been one of the few soft spots so far in 2017 and anyone....The same goes for inflation, which is forecast to rise 2...2% y/y excluding food and energy...nbsp;....The Fed decision itself is largely a non-event...They will hike rates but those data points could affect the statement and....They may also raise concerns in the markets or solidify the excitement about....A clue may have come from Tuesday's PPI report...It showed prices up 0...3% m/m compared to 0...1% expected...One of the focuses in the Fed decision will be the dot plot but it's tough....It already shows the median forecasting three hikes in 2017 and we struggle to....Along the same lines, Yellen may be more constructive but it's not in her....Remember that only two weeks ago the market was pricing in only a 35% chance....The main euro risk will be the Dutch vote...Anti-EU populist candidate Wilders' party was leading at the start of the....He's now expected to finish in second place with about 22 seats...Whether he does better or worse will drive sentiment on what happens next...All other parties have vowed not to work with him and it's inconceivable he....No matter what the outcome, it will be difficult for any party to cobble....But in the day ahead, the euro trade will be guided by Wilders'....As we digest the fallout from those events, we'll be looking forward to..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Brushes Off Q1
by Adam Button | May 3, 2017 23:15
The Fed brushed off a weak first quarter and that was seen as a signal that....The US dollar led the way while the Australian dollar lagged to a 3-month....Australian trade balance and comments from Lowe are out next...The Premium long in GBPJPY was closed with a 205-pip gain as a tactical....7 trades remain progress...The Fed didn't offer anything new in the way of guidance in Wednesday's....The same 'gradual' language remained without committing to a....But that's not how the market took it...The probability of a June hike rose to 93% from 70% after the statement...What the market latched onto was a line saying that the slowdown in Q1 growth....The assumption is that the Fed is brushing it off and still wants to hike....That may turn out to be true but not if data continues to miss...At 93%, it doesn't leave much room for error...On the data front – at least on the soft data front – the Fed got....The April ISM non-manufacturing index was at 57...5 vs 55...8 expected...In addition, the new orders component was at the best level in 11 years,....2 from 58...9...That will help convince the Fed that good growth is still right around the....The other main release was ADP employment at 177K compared to 175K....In the bigger picture, we're increasingly convinced that jobs growth....Yesterday's New Zealand jobs numbers were extremely strong with unemployment....9% from 5...2% a great jobs growth overall...The kiwi initially jumped 30 pips but was sold heavily for the remainder of....Expect the market to have the same focus on wages in Friday's non-farm....The principal question is: Can a tight labour market still producer wage growth....The kiwi fell alongside AUD/USD which wiped out three days of gains and fell....Up next is the 0130 GMT trade balance report; it's expected to show a $A3...25m surplus...The bigger potential market mover comes at 0310 GMT when Governor Lowe speaks on....That topic sounds ripe for hawkish comments but even if that's the case..
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Intraday Market Thought: Uncertain Fed & Uncertain UK Politics
by Adam Button | May 31, 2017 0:08
The Fed's Brainard gave the strongest hint yet that low inflation....The New Zealand dollar led the way, while the Canadian dollar lagged...A UK election polls sent the pound plunging in early Asia-Pacific trade...The latest video for Premium subscribers is found below...The April PCE report had something for everyone...The dollar initially rallied on the headlines because core PCE rose 0...2% m/m, slightly more than the +0...1% consensus...USD/JPY ticked 25 pips higher to 111...20 but that was the high for US trading...Weighing on the dollar was a decline in year-over-year core inflation to 1...5% from 1...6%....It was expected but it extends the trend of slipping core inflation...Downward revisions to personal income also weighed but were balanced by rosy....The change of a June hike rose to 88% from 84% according to the CME's....A big reason is because of eroding faith in longer term rate hikes...Later in the day, the Fed's Brainard warned the FOMC may need to reassess....For the moment, she said it was premature to make that call and that'....But along with that hike, the statement is now more likely to include language....The bond market is now beginning to question whether those hikes will come....The 10-year yield fell 3...7 bps to 2...21% and is closing in on the post-election low of 2...16%....The US dollar is following yields lower...Meanwhile, the pound took a sharp spill briefly below 1...28 in early Asia-Pacific trading...The trigger was a poll from YouGov that modeled the distribution of votes across....It showed Theresa May's Conservatives winning but falling 16....That would seriously jeopardize Brexit negotiations and cripple the government...From here, the focus will shift to China where the official PMIs are due at 0100....The manufacturing measure is forecast to slip to 51...0 from 51...2...the prior non-manufacturing reading was 54...0...Note that it's also the final trading day of the month so flows could..
