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Results: 711 to 720 of 1,000
Results: 711 to 720 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Import Tax Confusion
by Adam Button | Jan 26, 2017 23:27
The surprise of the first working week of Trump's administration was how....The dollar played some catch up on the day to lead the way while the yen lagged...Japanese CPI is due up next...The Dow short was stopped out and 4 trades remain in progress (3 in FX and 1....The bar for Trump's team was low coming into the week...The spat over inauguration crowd sizes was a poor start but after meetings with....We wrote earlier in the week that the early part of his Presidency will be all....The early returns were good but it started to unravel on Thursday as the....It didn;t add up...With more than $300 billion in annual imports from Mexico a tariff would....It was compounded by the White House saying Trump favored a 20% import tax on....Hours later, Republicans walked back the suggestion, saying it was one of just a....The process of floating ideas then adjusting, backtracking or changing them....Ultimately, the market has shown it will give Trump plenty of rope but fumbles....Otherwise US trading wasn't overly volatile...New home sales and initial jobless claims were weak but the Markit services....The latter probably adds 0...2 pp to Friday's advance US GDP reading and some upside risk into Friday....Before that comes the December Japanese CPI reading...The 0...2% y/y rise expected will be slower than 0...5% in November and will serve as a reminder that the BOJ remains far from..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Reverses, AUD Jobs Next
by Adam Button | Feb 15, 2017 22:40
Signs that better post-election confidence is beginning to translate....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...The Australian jobs report is due up next...A new metals trade has been added to the Premium Insights, supported by three....The general arc of an improving economy is that sentiment surveys improve first...That's followed by hard data but not always...Sometimes economic confidence fades and the expected growth pickup never....The US dollar rallied along with sentiment after the election but it....Hand-in-hand with that was uncertainty about what the new administration would....In the past week, Trump's 'phenomenal' tax plan offered a....Today's January retail sales report was the best evidence yet...Ex-autos and gas rose 0...7% compared to a flat reading expected...The December report was also revised higher...Along with that report, CPI beat estimates and the Empire Fed was at 18...7 compared to 7...0 expected...Initially, the US dollar surged as the probability of a March Fed climbed above....But there are signs the market has unanswered questions...A big one is wages as January year-over-year real wages were flat compared to a....8% rise in December...That's the kind of statistic that offers the Fed plenty of opportunity for....In addition, higher CPI is largely an artifact from the oil price recovery and....Finally, not all the data was good with January industrial production down 0...3% compared to a flat reading expected...The US dollar began to reverse and went on to fall 50-80 pips from its peak...Overall, the data is still trending in the right direction but the market still....For now, this might just be a blip but it demonstrates how conflicted the....Meanwhile, it's full steam ahead for stocks as the S&P 500 hit a record....One chart that appears to be breaking out is AUD/USD as the bulls finally took....7700...But it could be a short-lived victory if today's jobs report struggles...The consensus estimate is for 10K new jobs with unemployment flat at 5...8%....If the numbers are strong, however, expect a break of the Nov 8 high of 0...7778 in what would be a 10-month high...The data is due at 0030 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indecision Time
by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2017 23:10
What breaks the deadlock? The past week demonstrated that strong economic data....The yen was the top performer on the week while the pound lagged but the....1 of the 3 USD Premium trades was closed at a profit, leaving 2 USD trades in....So what are we waiting for? Is it clarity on Trump's currency policy?....Yellen was more hawkish but the dollar shrugged...So we're left to continue focusing on politics but we're also keeping....An alternative view is inflation...If we take the view that all governments are poised to spend more in order to....But it might be uneven...Conceivably, countries closing borders may lose out on trade and experience....But overall that strikes as an uncertain and slow-moving factor...Emerging markets are also in the crosshairs...One fact of globalization that's in little dispute is that it has boosted....A retrenchment in trade is inherently negative and it creates an endless....Taking a wider view, everyone is struggling with these questions but it&....As the search continues, we will keep a close watch on technicals...In terms of economic data, the week begins with New Zealand PPI and Japanese....Note that it's a holiday in North America so trading may remain....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Forex speculative futures positioning...denotes net long; - denotes net short....EUR -47K vs -45K prior...GBP -66K vs -64K prior...JPY -51K vs -55K prior...CHF -11K vs -14K prior...CAD +19K vs +8K prior...AUD +24K vs +17K prior...NZD +3K vs +1K prior....The commodity currencies extended the slow burn of the past month...The Australian and Canadian dollars continue to flirt with breakouts.
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Intraday Market Thought: Durable Disappointment, Trump Changes Agenda
by Adam Button | Feb 27, 2017 22:40
Monday was another day of confused trading as the dollar was hit by soft....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...Japanese industrial production data is due later...A new USD trades has been issued to the Premium Insights ahead of Trump's....The charts and notes of the trade shall be posted ahead of the Tokyo Tuesday....The headline didn't tell the story on US January durable goods orders...They rose 1...8% in the month compared to the 1...7% consensus but that masks a revision to December to -0...8% from -0...5%....Moreover, the key component on non-defense capital goods orders ex-air was....4% compared to a 0...5% rise expected...US pending home sales data also missed estimates later...The data put a negative bias into the US dollar but was lifted by Trump...Some disappointment set in as the administration shifted the focus of....Trump said a tax plan can't come until the cost of healthcare changes are....The disappointment on taxes was balanced by Trump hinting about big spending on....What's happening in the background is that various parts of the Republican....Trump had laid out something like taxes, Obamacare, infrastructure but that....There is room for disappointment there but until negative details emerge, the....With Trump largely taking himself off this week's agenda, the focus may....Fed hike odds have crept up to 40% in what increasingly looks like it will be....Looking ahead, Asia-Pacific traders will focus on Japanese industrial production....The consensus is for a 0...3% m/m rise after a 0...7% climb previously...Retail sales, construction orders and housing starts are also due later...For Australia, Q4 current account data is due at 0030 GMT...As it stands, the Australian dollar is the best performer in February.
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Intraday Market Thought: The Big Day
by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2017 23:52
The next two days feature a non-stop schedule of trading risks that we will....Perhaps reflecting the uncertainty, the yen was the top performer on Tuesday....nbsp;The new video for Premium subscribers has been posted in the....تمركز الصفقات قبيل الفدرالي(للمشتركين فقط)....Market moves on Tuesday reflected some trepidation with so much on the upcoming....The S&P 500 fell 8 points and the yen held a modest bid...The day ahead features the Dutch election, FOMC decision and data on US....The underrated risk might be the US economic numbers...Retail sales have been one of the few soft spots so far in 2017 and anyone....The same goes for inflation, which is forecast to rise 2...2% y/y excluding food and energy...nbsp;....The Fed decision itself is largely a non-event...They will hike rates but those data points could affect the statement and....They may also raise concerns in the markets or solidify the excitement about....A clue may have come from Tuesday's PPI report...It showed prices up 0...3% m/m compared to 0...1% expected...One of the focuses in the Fed decision will be the dot plot but it's tough....It already shows the median forecasting three hikes in 2017 and we struggle to....Along the same lines, Yellen may be more constructive but it's not in her....Remember that only two weeks ago the market was pricing in only a 35% chance....The main euro risk will be the Dutch vote...Anti-EU populist candidate Wilders' party was leading at the start of the....He's now expected to finish in second place with about 22 seats...Whether he does better or worse will drive sentiment on what happens next...All other parties have vowed not to work with him and it's inconceivable he....No matter what the outcome, it will be difficult for any party to cobble....But in the day ahead, the euro trade will be guided by Wilders'....As we digest the fallout from those events, we'll be looking forward to..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Brushes Off Q1
by Adam Button | May 3, 2017 23:15
The Fed brushed off a weak first quarter and that was seen as a signal that....The US dollar led the way while the Australian dollar lagged to a 3-month....Australian trade balance and comments from Lowe are out next...The Premium long in GBPJPY was closed with a 205-pip gain as a tactical....7 trades remain progress...The Fed didn't offer anything new in the way of guidance in Wednesday's....The same 'gradual' language remained without committing to a....But that's not how the market took it...The probability of a June hike rose to 93% from 70% after the statement...What the market latched onto was a line saying that the slowdown in Q1 growth....The assumption is that the Fed is brushing it off and still wants to hike....That may turn out to be true but not if data continues to miss...At 93%, it doesn't leave much room for error...On the data front – at least on the soft data front – the Fed got....The April ISM non-manufacturing index was at 57...5 vs 55...8 expected...In addition, the new orders component was at the best level in 11 years,....2 from 58...9...That will help convince the Fed that good growth is still right around the....The other main release was ADP employment at 177K compared to 175K....In the bigger picture, we're increasingly convinced that jobs growth....Yesterday's New Zealand jobs numbers were extremely strong with unemployment....9% from 5...2% a great jobs growth overall...The kiwi initially jumped 30 pips but was sold heavily for the remainder of....Expect the market to have the same focus on wages in Friday's non-farm....The principal question is: Can a tight labour market still producer wage growth....The kiwi fell alongside AUD/USD which wiped out three days of gains and fell....Up next is the 0130 GMT trade balance report; it's expected to show a $A3...25m surplus...The bigger potential market mover comes at 0310 GMT when Governor Lowe speaks on....That topic sounds ripe for hawkish comments but even if that's the case..
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Intraday Market Thought: Uncertain Fed & Uncertain UK Politics
by Adam Button | May 31, 2017 0:08
The Fed's Brainard gave the strongest hint yet that low inflation....The New Zealand dollar led the way, while the Canadian dollar lagged...A UK election polls sent the pound plunging in early Asia-Pacific trade...The latest video for Premium subscribers is found below...The April PCE report had something for everyone...The dollar initially rallied on the headlines because core PCE rose 0...2% m/m, slightly more than the +0...1% consensus...USD/JPY ticked 25 pips higher to 111...20 but that was the high for US trading...Weighing on the dollar was a decline in year-over-year core inflation to 1...5% from 1...6%....It was expected but it extends the trend of slipping core inflation...Downward revisions to personal income also weighed but were balanced by rosy....The change of a June hike rose to 88% from 84% according to the CME's....A big reason is because of eroding faith in longer term rate hikes...Later in the day, the Fed's Brainard warned the FOMC may need to reassess....For the moment, she said it was premature to make that call and that'....But along with that hike, the statement is now more likely to include language....The bond market is now beginning to question whether those hikes will come....The 10-year yield fell 3...7 bps to 2...21% and is closing in on the post-election low of 2...16%....The US dollar is following yields lower...Meanwhile, the pound took a sharp spill briefly below 1...28 in early Asia-Pacific trading...The trigger was a poll from YouGov that modeled the distribution of votes across....It showed Theresa May's Conservatives winning but falling 16....That would seriously jeopardize Brexit negotiations and cripple the government...From here, the focus will shift to China where the official PMIs are due at 0100....The manufacturing measure is forecast to slip to 51...0 from 51...2...the prior non-manufacturing reading was 54...0...Note that it's also the final trading day of the month so flows could..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fine Fed Lines To Be Drawn
by Adam Button | Jun 13, 2017 23:25
A rate hike is virtually certain in the day ahead but the communication that....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Chinese and Japanese industrial production data is up next...The English video ahead of the Fed for Premium subscribers was posted yesterday...الإسترليني، الذهب و المؤشر المجهول (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....A hike Wednesday is 95% priced in but beyond that is a mystery...Earlier this year, the debate was about three or four hikes but given the soft....For September a 28% chance of another hike is priced in and for December it&....The market will search for clarity in the statement, forecasts, dot plots and....Most believe Yellen will signal some kind of wait-and-see stance that makes....Alternatively, the Fed could continue to insist that better numbers are right....That would be consistent with their previous stance but it would go against....Ultimately, how the market reacts will depend on how any shift is communicated...In the March dot plot, 5 members saw a total of four hikes in 2017, 9 saw three,....It would require six members to shift from three hikes to two in order to move....But the dot plot may not be the sole medium...The statement is also a complex means to signal a shift towards a more....A slight change in the line saying “The Committee expects that....If there are no clear changes, expect the US dollar to rally on the headlines,....The chances of confusion and choppy trading are high, be sure to follow....Before the Fed, the focus is on China with May retail sales and industrial....Consumers continue to spending with sale forecast to rise 10...7% y/y while industrial production is forecast to rise 6...4%....Impressively, Japan was almost able to keep pace with the industrial growth in....April production rose 5...7% in the preliminary report and final data is expected to show similar growth...Don't expect significant market moves on the Chinese or Japanese data..
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Intraday Market Thought: None Wants a Strong Currency
by Adam Button | Aug 1, 2017 23:36
The RBA statement on Tuesday highlighted the conundrum at central banks –....Lowe did his best to salt in some jawboning and AUD/USD fell in the....NZD is falling fast in early Wednesday Asia...after NZ Q2 employment contracted 0...2% q/q vs expectations of +0...8%....The chart belows shows all currencies are up vs the USD so far this year, with....US data were neutral to negative...June core PCE price index held at 1...5%....July manufacturing ISM slipped to 56...3 from 57...8, with prices paid up to 62 from 55...0 and employment off to 55...2 from 57...2...June construction fell 1...3% vs expectations for a rise with net downward revisions, which means a....The RBA statement said a stronger Australian dollar would restrain growth....It's not as strong as previous comments that explicitly warned of the....It means that if AUD/USD rises further, rate hikes will be pushed out further,....The other standout in the RBA statement is downcast commentary on wage inflation...Lowe made several references to low wage growth and said it will continue for a....A widening gulf between central banks may be growing -- Some have grown tepid....That's a reflection of a change in global dynamics, offshoring and....Other central banks believe it's only a matter of time until wages pick....Since the same factors are in play everywhere, both sides can't be....What strikes us is that forecasting low wage growth may be more effective in....The risk is that if you're wrong about wages, you might have an inflation....That's a risk worth taking or at the very least, it may mean more central....Such a collective shift to the sidelines could have the greatest impact on FX,....That said, we don't see signs of strong or shifting rhetoric on the wage..
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Intraday Market Thought: Cable Has a Catalyst
by Adam Button | Nov 28, 2017 22:55
Separate reports suggested UK PM Theresa May's government is close to a....Cable jumped on the headlines and was the top performer on the day while the....Japanese retail sales are due up next...2nd EURUSD trade has been issued...Tomorrow marks Janet Yellen's final testimony to Congress' joint....The video for Premium subscribers is posted below, highlighting the existing....nbsp;....It was a lively day of trading that included heavy newsflow...The pound suffered early and cable was down more than a cent when a Telegraph....Cable jumped more than 120 pips then fell back down when a government....A second report, this time from the FT, added more detail, indicating the deal....That sent cable near 1...3400 from as low as 1...3220 on the day...More importantly, it's a fresh catalyst for cable...If confirmed, it's a sign that negotiations are bearing fruit and....At this point, nearly any kind of resolution or progress is good for....Across the Atlantic, the US dollar was buoyed by economic data as consumer....New home sales also beat expectations, but trade and inventory reports led to....The tax plan also made progress but once again that buoyed stock markets while....The S&P 500 surged 26 points to a record 2627...In geopolitical news, North Korea tested a missile but the dip was merely a....Amidst all that, Fed chair nominee Powell was grilled in his confirmation....On monetary policy, he did his best Yellen impression and said gradual rate....At the same time, he struck a few dovish notes by warning on low wage inflation....Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor the North Korea fallout but also....The consensus is for a +0...2% m/m rise after a 0...8% m/m jump in Sept...Comments from the BOJ's Nakaso are also due at 0700 GMT.
