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Results: 761 to 770 of 1,000
Results: 761 to 770 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Next, Yen Crosses & Make a Move
by Adam Button | May 28, 2021 12:54A fresh wave of yen selling has sparked a resurgence in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...The US PCE report is due up next (more details below)....Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group he's going long USDJPT at 108...90s, targetting 109...70s...He also indicated shorting NZD vs USD and GBP...nbsp;This will be a very busy & volatile session ahead...Be careful...nbsp;....GBP/JPY is flirting with the 2018 high after a strong climb on Thursday...If it can breach that level, the pair would touch the highest since July 2016...GBP/JPY steadily climbed alongside stocks from late 2020 through February....It has now broken out this month and and that's a positive sign for it and....EUR/JPY also made a move on Thursday to the highest since Feb 2018 and has risen....Even CHF/JPY is surging and that price action indicates that the yen is quickly....At the same time, we can't rule out that dollar liquidity issues and month end....US economic data offered little market direction but was indicative of an....Initial jobless claims fell to 406K from 425K expected and will continue to fall....Core durable goods orders were also strong, rising 2...3% compared to 1...0% expected...Finally, the second look at Q1 GDP was in line with the +6...4% consensus but the underlying numbers were a reminder that inventory....Data will certainly be in focus on Friday, with the US PCE report out at....The Fed's preferred measure of inflation – PCE core – is forecast to....9% from 1...8% and if it does, that will be the highest since 1994 in something that's....However so long as it's near consensus, the market will shrug that off...Moreover, we've highlighted how high prints have led to USD spikes that are....Note that Monday is a holiday in the US and that markets will thin out early.. -
Intraday Market Thought: PCE Cools the Inflation Narrative
by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2021 14:41USD regains strength after Friday's post-PCE slide...A series of inflation surprises left the market on edge ahead of the May PCE....All currencies are down vs the dollar, except for GBP...CFTC positioning emphasized the short-squeeze after the FOMC meeting...Make sure to watch & rewatch Ashraf's video on the tapering dynamics....nbsp; ....PCE core inflation rose 3...4% in May, as expected...The headline number at 3...9% also matched estimates...The numbers come after CPI data hit 5% in a big surprise...The market eventually digested (and shrugged off) the high CPI reading but....The dollar sold off on the headlines but hours later it recovered, in part to a....The bond market continues to be a key barometer...It's the single-most sensitive asset class to inflation and the Fed...With 10s at 1...52% the message about transitory inflation is clear but it will be tested....The new week starts with a strong rally in crypto, led by a 10% weekend jump in....The resolve of the bulls this month despite a battering has been impressive...CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +89K vs +118K prior...GBP +18K vs +32K prior...JPY -53K vs -47K prior...CHF +14K vs +9K prior...CAD +43K vs +44K prior...AUD -17K vs -18K prior...NZD +3K vs +3K prior...This is the first look we have at post-Fed positioning and it highlights the....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Respite or Reversal?
by Adam Button | Jul 21, 2021 14:48
A 2nd day of sharp rebound in US treasury yields continues to command the....The recovery in bond yields off their 100-WMA raises as many questions as it....The below chart shows familiar technical paramters, with yields remaining....nbsp;JPY is down across the board, while JPY is only higher vs JPY as CAD and....nbsp;....Buying the dips in risk assets has been the single best trade of the past 20....Early in New York trading on Tuesday it looked like another spill could be in....13% from 1...21% just hours earlier but sentiment shifted with equities recouping all of....One of the triggers for the initial retreat were declines in US....Both were shy of estimates and that was an unwanted negative nudge...Whether the rebound marks an interim or lasting bottom in sentiment will depend....The UK case and hospitalization numbers will be particularly key in the days....There are early positive signs elsewhere with cases in the Netherlands ebbing....In hard-hit Indonesia, cases are also leveling off at a high level...With the market now focused on covid, there will be an ebb and flow in....A wild card could be a more-cautious turn from central bankers...Any hint at an easier stance will be a green light for commodity currencies,....On the technical side, we note the continued breakdown in cable and the....4250 with a measured target at 1...31...Even in the rebound in sentiment, GBP/USD struggled to get traction...After four days of selling, an inability to muster a stronger bounce on....EURGBP continues to show improving technicals...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Consumer Questions & Crucial Monthly Close
by Adam Button | Aug 31, 2021 22:43As we anticipated, US consumer confidence badly missed expectations on....Despite that, the dollar pared earlier losses as month-end flows played into....Higher than expected Eurozone CPI did not go unnoticed by bund traders...Wednesday's highlights include US ADP report and ISM manufacturing...Ashraf posted a video today of the live market reaction to the miss in consumer....nbsp; Ashraf shared this tweet below and will fill in his WhatsApp BG with this....nbsp; ....US consumer confidence fell to the lowest since February on Tuesday in a....As we highlighted on Monday, drops in the index are highly correlated with the....Confidence fell to 113...8 from 129...1; much lower than the 124...0 consensus...The miss weighed on the dollar initially but month-end flows led to broad USD....In the days ahead, fixing demand will be long gone but questions about the....The assumption rate coming out of the pandemic was that a high savings rate....That paradigm could materially slow H2 growth and keep the Fed off balance...At some point it will weigh more heavily on the dollar but the timing on that....For now, the market is focused on employment and inflation...We'll get two inputs on that Wednesday with the release of ADP employment and....The current focus on jobs will make ADP the highlight (despite its flaws) but.. -
Intraday Market Thought: What Will the BoC Signal?
by Adam Button | Sep 8, 2021 14:09Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision is a bit of a placeholder because they were....There is UNLIKLEY to be a surprise as there is no press conference scheduled....The US dollar is stronger across the board except against NZD and JPY...Loonie is again the weakest, but is stabilizing...A US 10-year auction could also be market moving later today...nbsp;....The BOC has led markets to believe it will taper every second meeting; so....Nonetheless, this is an opportunity for Macklem to pre-emptively hint that a....However the reasons for doing that are outweighed by the reasons to wait and....The main negative developments since July have been the delta wave in the US....A major drag has come from slower housing sale activity and lower exports....At the same time, Canadian vaccination rates are high and the current reopening....Perhaps most importantly, Canada is two weeks away from an election and....The most likely outcome is that the BOC highlights renewed uncertainty but....rdquo;....Given Monday's dump in the loonie, that might be enough to draw a line under the....Note though that Macklem will also speak on Thursday and could fine-tune the....In the bigger picture, the Canadian dollar was caught in a broad USD bid on....There are a number of theories on why yields have pushed up since non-farm....58B three-year notes were sold Tuesday, $38B of 10s are coming Wednesday and....If demand is strong, the trend higher in yields could be short-lived...nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Here Comes the ECB
by Adam Button | Sep 9, 2021 11:46
It seems that by dubbing its QE program as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase....Will that occur as soon as today as the program winds down by next March...Will the signal occur today? The ECB announcement is at 12:45 pm London....Not only the Eurozone economy has shown notable improvements, but inflation has....The PEPP currently runs at EUR 80 bn monthly...We expect the ECB to ugrade its growth and inflation projections, which should....19...Ashraf tells me Lagarde will emphasise the economic upgrades rather than signal....nbsp;....What Lagarde may try to engineer is a more-flexible APP program to fill in the....Such strategy risks a multitude of communications errors, that could boost....nbsp;....Today's meeting is particularly fraught because ECB communication is....A further problem is brewing around year end when the Fed tapers its purchases...That will push up global yields and tighten European financial conditions...It may put the ECB back in a position to ease further, something that could....For now though, the combination of inflation, economic growth and the....1940/50 should be back in play...nbsp; Lagarde will be cognizant of that though and may try to balance it..
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Intraday Market Thought: ECB Baby Taper, Bonds Bid
by Adam Button | Sep 10, 2021 13:02The ECB cut its emergency pandemic bond purchases in a mild surprise on Thursday....Commodity currencies are leading the gains versus the USD as indices push....Canadian employment and US PPI are due on Friday...In the chart below, Ashraf points out a market that has so far moved this year....What is it? Canada's jobs release is up next...More on that below...nbsp;....The ECB announced a 'moderately lower' pace of PEPP purchases as they work....The initial reaction was euro strength but it soon gave back the move and....That as compounded as Lagarde emphasized transitory inflation and left hints....The ECB President clearly didn't want this viewed as a hawkish move and the....Bund yields fell to -0...369% from 0...325% beforehand...Still, there was good news for the eurozone as the 2021 GDP forecast was....1% from 4...6% with the 2022 estimate left nearly unchanged...That forecast puts the economy back at pre-pandemic levels before year end...This week we had central bank decisions from the ECB, BOC and RBA...They followed a pattern where the market largely tuned out...This could be a sign that at the forefront of trading are more global....We sympathize with that thinking as those global macro themes are likely to....On the employment front, Thursday's release of US jobless claims fell to a....On Friday, it will be Canadian jobs in focus and they're expected at +100K in....Macklem, in his Thursday speech maintained a determined tone around an....The jobs report will be a big factor in that. -
Intraday Market Thought: The China Challenge
by Adam Button | Sep 14, 2021 11:29Since we've been watching markets, prognosticators haven't stopped....Needless to say, none were remotely true, but the drumbeat of predictions of an....Watch out for the US CPI due next...nbsp; By the way, you guys never guessed what's this chart below...It's a case of the 'the boy who cried wolf' and markets have become largely....Or at least global markets have...The rout in Chinese markets has grown violent and persistent...Particularly worrisome are the $305 billion in Evergrande bonds...The securities of China's second-largest property developer are trading as if....A protest from 100 disgruntled investors descended on the company Monday in....Evergrande's problems coincide with crackdowns at Chinese tech and media....Officials have touched on a push for 'common prosperity' in a possible hint at....The shifts have come at the same time as China fights to restrain prices in....All this has come at a period when Chinese economic data has consistently....GDP growth has been the guiding star of Chinese policy for a generation but the....Along with these shifts, we worry that the recent softness in equity markets....It's clear that Fed policy is less of a concern, with comments from top....Does it really matter if the taper is in November or December?....For now, there's no definitive trade on China but we will be watching very....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Swiss Mess
by Adam Button | Sep 17, 2021 13:34
Robust US retail sales led to a broad USD bid on Thursday, but FX is pulling....CHF hit its lowest against JPY and USD in 5 and 3 mth respectively...EURCHF especially rose on a leaked ECB report (more below)....The UMich consumer sentiment survey is due up next...Don't forget it's the quarterly “triple witching” rendez-....We could see surging volatility towards the final hour of trade...nbsp;....There have been abundant signs of SNB intervention recently and technical....USD/CHF took out the June high early today and if it can hold above into the....9471...EUR/CHF also rose to a two-month high on Thursday...That pair had some help from a report saying the ECB's unpublished....EURCHF could potentially hit its next iterim target at 1...10 after breaking the March trendline resistance...nbsp;....US August retail sales rose 0...7% compared to -0...8% expected...nbsp; The ex-autos and control group readings were equally strong, though all....Even with that, it was a roundly impressive report that led to a rally in....Especially instructive was the much different FX market response to this....nbsp; That report – which is a key Fed and market focus at the moment....Markets are choppy at the moment but there is some optimism about the....We will get another look at spending with the UMich consumer sentiment report....The consensus is a slight improvement to 72...2 from 70...3...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Big Oil, Big Implications
by Adam Button | Oct 11, 2021 16:26Markets start the new week on a positive mood as the yen continues its retreat....US and Canada aren't preventing FX from engaging in the classic carry trade,....DXY is closing in on a tightening wedge, which could set up for 94...90s or 93...50s...The Gold/Brent chart below will be closely watched on whether the weekly....nbsp; ....Lebanon offered a glimpse into the growing global energy crisis on the....It's an increasingly complex situation as the nation struggles to....Weekend reports also highlighted the growing coal shortage in India as two....Households and companies in both places and elsewhere are frequently turning to....With natural gas prices at extraordinarily high levels, there is....As a result, oil demand may be recovering more quickly than anticipated...On Friday, US oil hit $80 for the first time since 2014 and it continued higher....Technically, there are blue skies on the chart up to significantly higher levels...The economic knock ons from that are negative and inflationary but for now....Notably, one level to watch is $86...90 in Brent...Unlike WTI, the global oil benchmark hasn't broken the 2018 high and still....A break of that level would confirm (or block) a genuine breakout...Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is not exactly in a hurry to temper the windfalls of....In Monday's broader trade, the trend of yen weakness appears to be gathering....It's an acknowledgement of the global reflation trade and rising yields...nbsp;..
