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  • Intraday Market Thought: DAX & Eurostoxx Trading Video

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2018 16:18
    DAX & Eurostoxx Trading Video Chart The Dax30 and Eurostoxx50 indices are fairly similar in terms of their....Here is why I issued a short DAX trade last week and what's next ahead with..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Trump's Latest Gift for USD Bears

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 2, 2018 17:14
    Trump's Latest Gift for USD Bears Chart As the charts indicate, currency traders may no longer support the USD despite....Here is what we should expect next...Full analysis.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Political Peril as Markets Open

    by Adam Button | Mar 5, 2018 11:17
    Political Peril as Markets Open Chart Italian political surged after a Hung parliament ensured following the victory....CFTC positioning data showed the crowded yen-short trade lightening up...After closing the DAX short late last week for 430-pt gain, there are 9....7 in the green, 1 flat and 1 in the red...German SPD members approved a grand coalition with Merkel on Sunday and that....Italy's Euroskeptic Five Star Movement and anti-migrant Leage won the....That's given the euro a bump early on but it will be hours before the....Headline risks in the days ahead will be high as party leaders attempt to form a....The bigger risk for markets is worsening trade rhetoric...US stocks rebounded late Friday in part due to hopes that Trump would add....A number of comments from high-ranking US officials on the weekend made that....In addition, Trump threatened to ban European car imports...Over the past year, betting against risk assets because of turmoil in the White....The President has often appeared to be unhinged only to plod forward with more-....Is this time different? Perhaps, Trump has been a trade protectionist for more....Hints on what's coming next may come from personnel changes...Gary Cohn reportedly tried to convince Trump to back down on tariffs, and may....If so, markets will see it as a definitive turn in his administration...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +138K vs +126K prior...GBP +13K vs +8K prior...JPY -97K vs -108K prior...CAD +22K vs +23K prior...CHF -16K vs -19K prior...AUD +10K vs +12K prior...NZD +1K vs -1K prior....The overstretched yen shorts we've been warning about for weeks have..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Risks Crystalize

    by Adam Button | Mar 5, 2018 22:24
    Trade Risks Crystalize Chart White House comments to start the week tied tariffs to NAFTA and were seen as a....The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...The RBA decision is up next...The English Premium video is below....يمكن مشاهدة فيديو المشتركين أدناه...ما يأتي بعد جني الأرباح؟....Global stock markets bounced and the yen slipped on Monday as rhetoric shifted....What looked like a hasty decision to put on global tariffs may have been part of....Trump and US NAFTA negotiator Lighthizer both said Canada and Mexico would win....It's entirely unclear what kind of agreement Trump wants or if US NAFTA....One pocket of weakness was the Canadian dollar as mounting risks pushed USD/CAD....2920 level to the highest since June...That fear ties into Wednesday's BOC decision and a growing likelihood of a....Yet, it remains unclear if Trump has a bigger plan for tariffs outside of NAFTA...Many leaders want to see the text of what Trump is proposing before taking a....Looking ahead, it's a big day for AUD traders with current account and....Retail sales are forecast to rise 0...4% after a 0...5% decline in December...It's been volatile time for the numbers but consumer confidence has been....Trade, meanwhile is expected to show next exports pulling GDP 0...6 pp lower and the current accounts in a deficit of A$12...2B...Whatever the numbers, the market will be reluctant to make a move before the RBA....Lowe has been more optimistic lately and expects GDP to accelerate to 3...25% y/y by the end of 2018 but recent wage numbers have been soft.
  • Intraday Market Thought: NFP no Fed/USD Game-Changer

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 9, 2018 16:47
    NFP no Fed/USD Game-Changer Chart Today's US NFP/Earnings data are a fresh confirmation of the status quo (3....With 1...5% inflation and ascending bond yields looming large over an aggressive....Full analysis.
  • Intraday Market Thought: No Chaos, Just Great Energy

    by Adam Button | Mar 13, 2018 22:48
    No Chaos, Just Great Energy Chart Turmoil at the White House raises the risks of more interventionist trade and....The euro was the top performer Tuesday while the Canadian dollar lagged...The BOJ minutes, the RBA's Kent and Japanese machine orders are up next;....Below is the Premium video, highlighting 11 existing trades ahead of US retail....The departures of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and two low level officials....Tillerson had long been rumored to be leaving but Trump made it official with....Separate rumors were that national security advisor H...R...McMaster will be next to go be replaced by John Bolton...While the departures aren't a shock, the replacements are major hawks,....On the trade front, a report said Trump was preparing a series of China-directed....The news overshadowed the CPI report, which was in-line with estimates but....The S&P 500 had been as high as 2801 but skidded to 2765 at the close...Along with that, USD/JPY fell to 106...56 from 107...25 and the US dollar was broadly weaker...One big exception was the Canadian dollar...It's increasingly vulnerable to an aggressive White House trade agenda but....The BOC's Poloz said the country will be able to handle more growth....USD/CAD is back close to the 1...30 level it flirted with last week...The upcoming calendar features a few notable events starting with the RBA'....The Australian dollar fell late on Tuesday but finished close to unchanged...Japan is in focus at 2350 GMT with the minutes of the latest BOJ meeting and....2% m/m...However it will be politics continuing to dominate...The Abe government has been swept up in a document forgery scandal and in....A House district he won by 20 points in 2016 is up for grabs and could go to a....There are no immediate implications for markets but it could pit him against..
  • Intraday Market Thought: Rare Dow Doji Coming up

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 15, 2018 13:00
    Rare Dow Doji Coming up Chart The quarterly candle on the Dow Jones Industrials Average shows a rare long-....It's especially crucial when it occurs on the quarterly chart...Full analysis.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Pre-Fed Charts Video

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 21, 2018 14:48
    Pre-Fed Charts Video Chart In this charts video for GKFX, I highlight the crucial points ahead of....Full video.
  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Turmoil

    by Adam Button | Mar 22, 2018 21:41
    Trade Turmoil Chart A series of waivers of US steel and aluminum tariffs eased trade worries on....The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged in a classic....Japanese CPI is due up next...The Premium DAX30 short was closed at 11980 for 360 pt-gain...The US trade position is increasingly clear...Levying tariffs against some of its closest trading partners was part of a....They were a threat designed to bring them to the table, where the US gave....Leaks from EU tariff negotiations showed that support for the US against China....At the same time, the US hit China with fresh tariffs Thursday on imports of....So what had looked like a US-against-the-world trade spat may be the-world-....That puts the China in a tough spot but leaves them with several options: 1)....2) Try to sway countries on the US side...3) Try to hurt the US in swing states head of the US mid-terms...At the moment, the third option is the most likely but markets will be watching....The S&P 500 closed on the lows and narrowly below the worst levels of March...Technically, the picture is deteriorating...It's much the same in the yen crosses – many of which never....China's getting warmed up....The ink is barely dry on Trump's tariff attack and China is already....Going into the weekend, the market will be wary of negative headlines and risk....Yen traders will we watching for headlines from Japanese CPI at 2330 GMT...The consensus is for a 0...5% y/y rise ex-fresh food and energy.
  • Intraday Market Thought: NAFTA & BOJ to the Forefront

    by Adam Button | Apr 4, 2018 0:37
     NAFTA & BOJ to the Forefront Chart NAFTA and BOJ news swayed FX on Tuesday while Amazon drama drove the stock....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the Japanese yen lagged...Services PMIs from China and Japan are due up next...The latest video for Premium subscribers is found below...nbsp; استمرار التداول العرضي؟ (فيديو للمشتركين)....A NAFTA deal announcement in the next two weeks looms large after several....It would just be a preliminary deal but it would make a final deal virtually....US negotiators likely concluded that dealing with a new Mexican president....At the same time, Trump continues to pivot towards a trade war with China and....The FX market reacted with a 105 pip drop in USD/CAD to 1...2800...That's a sizeable one-day move and the loonie gained more against the euro,....The CAD trade from the Premium Insights is currently over 90 pips in the green...The moves might have been tempered by another tweet where Trump threatened....Speaking of twitter, Trump's crusade against Amazon was the driving force in....It suppressed stock markets for most of the day until a report indicated there....The market ripped higher afterwards and finished up more than 1%....Looking towards Asia, the yen rallied initially on after comments from Kuroda....At some point, the tide will completely turn and the yen will rally like the....More signs on a pickup in Japanese growth and inflation would spark a....In the day ahead, the Nikkei services PMI for March is due...The prior was 51...7...A more-likely market mover is the Caixin China servies PMI for March, which is....5 from 54...2.