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  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Turmoil

    by Adam Button | Mar 22, 2018 21:41
    Trade Turmoil Chart A series of waivers of US steel and aluminum tariffs eased trade worries on....The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged in a classic....Japanese CPI is due up next...The Premium DAX30 short was closed at 11980 for 360 pt-gain...The US trade position is increasingly clear...Levying tariffs against some of its closest trading partners was part of a....They were a threat designed to bring them to the table, where the US gave....Leaks from EU tariff negotiations showed that support for the US against China....At the same time, the US hit China with fresh tariffs Thursday on imports of....So what had looked like a US-against-the-world trade spat may be the-world-....That puts the China in a tough spot but leaves them with several options: 1)....2) Try to sway countries on the US side...3) Try to hurt the US in swing states head of the US mid-terms...At the moment, the third option is the most likely but markets will be watching....The S&P 500 closed on the lows and narrowly below the worst levels of March...Technically, the picture is deteriorating...It's much the same in the yen crosses – many of which never....China's getting warmed up....The ink is barely dry on Trump's tariff attack and China is already....Going into the weekend, the market will be wary of negative headlines and risk....Yen traders will we watching for headlines from Japanese CPI at 2330 GMT...The consensus is for a 0...5% y/y rise ex-fresh food and energy.

  • Intraday Market Thought: NAFTA & BOJ to the Forefront

    by Adam Button | Apr 4, 2018 0:37
    NAFTA & BOJ to the Forefront Chart NAFTA and BOJ news swayed FX on Tuesday while Amazon drama drove the stock....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the Japanese yen lagged...Services PMIs from China and Japan are due up next...The latest video for Premium subscribers is found below...nbsp; استمرار التداول العرضي؟ (فيديو للمشتركين)....A NAFTA deal announcement in the next two weeks looms large after several....It would just be a preliminary deal but it would make a final deal virtually....US negotiators likely concluded that dealing with a new Mexican president....At the same time, Trump continues to pivot towards a trade war with China and....The FX market reacted with a 105 pip drop in USD/CAD to 1...2800...That's a sizeable one-day move and the loonie gained more against the euro,....The CAD trade from the Premium Insights is currently over 90 pips in the green...The moves might have been tempered by another tweet where Trump threatened....Speaking of twitter, Trump's crusade against Amazon was the driving force in....It suppressed stock markets for most of the day until a report indicated there....The market ripped higher afterwards and finished up more than 1%....Looking towards Asia, the yen rallied initially on after comments from Kuroda....At some point, the tide will completely turn and the yen will rally like the....More signs on a pickup in Japanese growth and inflation would spark a....In the day ahead, the Nikkei services PMI for March is due...The prior was 51...7...A more-likely market mover is the Caixin China servies PMI for March, which is....5 from 54...2.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Xi’s Turn to Respond

    by Adam Button | Apr 9, 2018 15:22
    Xi’s Turn to Respond Chart China has been on the defensive in the trade war and aside from some tough....That could change in the week ahead...nbsp; A slow start to the week in terms of data but not in terms of USD weakness...The Canadian dollar was the top performer last week while the yen lagged...On Friday, the short USDCAD Premium trade was locked in with 140 pips of....A new CAD long was opened 15 mins prior to the Canada jobs report, which turned....There are currently 8 trades, 6 of which are in the green & 2 in the red...CFTC positioning data shows a new spot to watch for strain...Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to send a warning to the....Any signs that the a yuan devaluation increases in likelihood will add to a....Xi's speech is scheduled to be delivered at the Boao Forum, which is....The economically-charged event is a perfect opportunity for him to send a....At his speech in Davos, he called for more globalization and endorsed the WTO-....That's the most-likely course once again but any departures will be....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +134K vs +141K prior...GBP +40K vs +34K prior...JPY +4K vs -4K prior...CAD -32K vs -27K prior...CHF -10K vs -9K prior...AUD 0K vs +8 prior...NZD +18K vs +18K prior....The considerable yen short position from March has been completely wiped out but....A NAFTA deal Friday at the Summit of the Americas could spark a rush to the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: CAD Shrugs Off NAFTA Setback

    by Adam Button | Apr 9, 2018 23:36
    CAD Shrugs Off NAFTA Setback Chart The Canadian dollar demonstrated how the reaction to bad news if often more....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific data calendar is light but a speech from Xi and developments in....nbsp; The English Premium video will be posted & sent in early Tuesday Asia....حان وقت تقلب الديناميات (فيديو للمشتركين)....We often write about how markets respond to news is the most important indicator...Another example was the Canadian dollar on Monday after various reports that a....The loonie fell at first, boosting USD/CAD 60 pips to 1...2820 but that move was erased in 12 hours...Later, the Bank of Canada released its latest survey of businesses...It showed rising inflation expectations and a solid underlying economy...From there, the pair crumbled as low as 1...2685...The decline came in a backdrop of broad US dollar weakness...There wasn't a particular catalyst for the soft USD but the situation in....Russian markets were hit hard by US sanctions and Trump's rhetoric named....The ruble was beaten up and Russian bonds were battered...Watch to see if the selling spreads to other risk assets in the day ahead...The euro rose despite words of caution on inflation from several top ECB....But the latter's optimism on growth shadowed concerns of trade wars...Looking ahead, Xi's speech at the Boao remains a potential flashpoint for....Jitters about the talk may have contributed to the late slump in US..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Waiting on war

    by Adam Button | Apr 13, 2018 1:09
    Waiting on war Chart Whatever happened to fundamentals? War, trade, and whatever else Trump tweets....The pound was the top performer Thursday while the Swiss franc lagged...Chinese trade balance is due up next...The EURGBP trade (opened over 6 mths ago) was stopped out, leaving 5 trades in....Do not forget Ashraf's webinar on Tuesday about Trends and cycles in Dax....Markets turned Thursday after Trump tweeted that an attack against Syria....Leaks from the White House suggested he hadn't made up his mind and other....For now, the market has reverted to a wait-and-see mode by giving back the....The stock market climbed as well but earnings begin Friday and that will be a....As for FX, fundamentals briefly grabbed the spotlight after the FOMC minutes but....At some point there will be a reckoning...ECB policymakers may also have to recognize the recent disappointment in....Eurozone industrial production fell 0...8% in February, far worse than the +0...1% reading expected...It's part of a pattern that has pushed Citi's economic surprise....The ECB is in a tough spot because there is a heavily-entrenched bloc that will....The euro dipped down to 1...2300 from 1...2360 after the data but rebounded to 1...2330...Looking ahead, Chinese trade data threatens to highlight imbalances once....Imports are expected up 7...5% y/y with exports forecast to rise 8...0% and a surplus of CNY181B.

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Dollar Rethink?

    by Adam Button | Apr 27, 2018 19:29
    US Dollar Rethink? Chart US Q1 GDP weakened to a better than exp 2...3% (exp 2...0%) from 2...9%, while  personal consumption dropped as exp to 1...1% from 4...0%....USD momentum dissipated across the board folllowing the figures, while gold was....In the UK, a soft UK GDP reading might have put a nail in the coffin of a May....The pound plunged on Friday as the two-week rout continued...US GDP beat estimates but that only fueled fears of excessive rate hikes...An additional Premium video "After the stops" has been posted....nbsp; بعد الخسائر (فيديو ايضافي للمشتركين)....On April 16, cable was trading at a post- Brexit high of 1...4376 and the OIS market was pricing in a 96% chance of a May 10 rate hike...Just hours after hitting the high, Carney appeared on the BBC to talk about....He said “that although people should be prepared for a possible rate....rdquo;....That was hardly a signal about a retreat on hikes but it was a warning to....His focus on data was followed by poor inflation and retail sales numbers among....As those rolled out, cable began to roll over...On Friday, GDP was just +0...1% q/q compared to +0...3% expected...The ONS cited poor weather but the sense from the market is that Carney wanted....The odds of a hike have fallen to just 23% in what has been a complete rethink...Cable has fallen every day except one since Carney's BBC appearance and is....3790 from 1...4376...It's now closing in on the February low of 1...3711, which will be in play along with the BOE decision...The UK data calendar is light in the week ahead, so the market will stew over....The other side of the cable equation will be in sharp focus with a heavy....Friday's US GDP report showed growth at 2...3% q/q annualized compared to 2...0%....That helped to stoke optimism initially but there is a growing fear the Fed..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Implications of Fed’s Symmetric Objective

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 3, 2018 18:05
    USD Implications of Fed’s Symmetric Objective Chart Wednesday's FOMC statement had a phrase that was ideal for gold bulls...Would it be welcomed by USD bears? Full analysis here..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Cable at 200-dma, NFP Next

    by Adam Button | May 4, 2018 12:46
    Cable at 200-dma, NFP Next Chart The US dollar is up against all major currencies with the exception of the....European indices are back in positive territory but US futures indices are in....The pain in cable continued on Thursday with a drop to a fresh low dating back....Non-farm payrolls are due up next (see details below) and Premium trades are....Cable attempted to bounce but a broad bid in the US dollar on risk aversion....3535...That number is significant because it's exactly the 200-day moving average...Whether due to technical buying or a reversal in equity market fears, cable....3570 from there to finish flat on the day...A report in the Telegraph said the UK could remain in the customs union until....On net, that's good news as a lengthened timeline will encourage some....We're also now less than a week away from the BOE meeting and with odds of a....The market is pricing just a 52...6% of a rate rise through the September 13 meeting...Onto US Jobs....In the short-term, the US dollar side of the equation is the bigger risk...Friday brings non-farm payrolls and a renewed focus on wage inflation...The consensus for jobs is 192K but note that the employment component of the ISM....6 compared to 56...6 prior and that's a downside risk...Still, the market will be overwhelmingly focused on wage growth with average....2% m/m and 2...7% y/y...A higher reading could send 10-year yields right back to 3% from 2...94% Thursday...If so, the dollar could make broad gains outside of USD/JPY where risk aversion....We also continue to keep an eye on emerging markets after Argentina's....25%....The Argentine peso continued to fall Thursday and is now down 8...2% over two days and other EM currencies are suffering as well, adding a board..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Recording of Yesterday's Webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 4, 2018 19:03
    I don't usually send out the recording of my webinars, but I'm....Full recording.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Black Smoke & Franc Divergence

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 23, 2018 17:15
    Recent Swiss franc strength extended to the point of gaining versus all major....Not coincidentally, the start of this period coincided with the breakout in....But there are other factors enforcing franc strength...Will the currency require continuous fear in order to maintain its gains...Full analysis..
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