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Results: 881 to 890 of 1,000
Results: 881 to 890 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Macro-Market Divergence: Trade Deficit
by Adam Button | Feb 28, 2019 13:40
Trump abruptly cut the peace summit with North Korea without a deal...Ray Dalio, the hedge fund giant said odds of US recession before the next US....The Swiss franc is the best performer, bringing our CHF Premium deeper into the....China's February PMI slumped further to reach 49...2, highlighting the divergence between the economy and financial markets...US Q4 GDP finallly was released, coming at 2...6% (vs exp 2...2%) from 3...4% in Q3...nbsp; Yesterday, we shed light on the slwdown in US housing...Today we take a look at the swelling US trade deficit...nbsp;....كيفية مواجهة الذروة و التصحيح (فيديو للمشتركين)....One of the core elements of Trump's political brand is closing the trade....Yet on Wednesday the US trade deficit sprang to $79...5B compared to $73...9B expected...That will be a further drag on Q4 and along with other soft recent data it....Yet the key reason the dollar has remained so solid is that growth in the....That's all the reason that the deficit keeps rising...The risk shifts what kind of drastic measures will be taken by the White....It's a potential viscous circle that would intensify if Trump were to win....In terms of market moves, yields are a driver once again...US 10-year yields rose 4...6 bps to 2...68%....Yields have been chopping near 2...60% for weeks but may have found a bottom and that may lead to a bounce,....On that front, Lighthizer was hawkish in his comments to Congress Wednesday but....The US gets a lift from higher than expected US Q4 GDP, but with the figure..
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Intraday Market Thought: ECB & TLTRO Explainer
by Adam Button | Mar 7, 2019 12:23The ECB decision is up next and all eyes are on the downward revisions to growth....The Bank of Canada continued its retreat from higher rates in a surprise change....NZD is the day's strongest performer, closely followed by AUD, while GBP is....إستغلال الفرص داخل النطاقات (فيديو للمشتركين)....We warned the BOC might drop the explicit guidance toward higher rates in....USD/CAD jumped to 1...3450 from 1...3380 on the headlines...The pair was also boosted by a dismal Canadian trade balance report that....In the day ahead, the BOC's Patterson will further clarify the outlook but the....The US trade picture also darkened further as the December trade deficit....The numbers are undoubtedly skewed by tariffs but it increasingly looks like....That artificially raised activity and the months ahead could continue to see a....The ECB announcement is due momentarily (12:45 GMT), followed by Draghi's....Yesterday's leak suggested sharp reductions in forecasts for GDP and....The new numbers will set the table for another round of TLTROs but those may....Draghi, however, could soon be facing questions about what tools the ECB is....A removal of the hiking bias is also overdue...Difference between Refinancing Operations and Quantitative Easing....The ECB's refinancing operations, known as Targeted Long-Term Refinancing....Unlike the quantitative easing program (which ended last year), these operations....QE may have had a rapid downward effect on yields and rates but did not....nbsp; In other words, the refinancing operations require borrowers (banks) to....Banks with decent net lending figures will be able to borrow funds from the....40%, enabling them to use the proceeds to lend out at higher rates. -
Intraday Market Thought: What’s Next after May’s Deal Rejected?
by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2019 21:31
Last-minute negotiations failed to convince parliament to support Theresa....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...US CPI also missed estimates in another inflation miss...Reversal or Deferral are the remaining choices...The Premium trade on GBP remains open and in the green, so is the EURUSD trade...The charts below highlight the peak in GBP volatility, which is stabilizing for....Getting a deal through parliament was a longshot as the week got underway but....Those hopes were dashed by a statement from UK Attorney General Cox who said....That headline triggered a drop to 1...3005 from 1...3160 and it was used by the DUP and ERG as justification for voting against the....The result was a 242-391 defeat for May...That's an improvement from 202-432 in January but still needs to switch....It's tough to envision the EU offering much more of a sweetener so May....The pound initially bounced after the vote...That was partly due to some progress in the numbers but more so due to May....She said the no-deal vote will be a free one for her party but it will surely be....The market is now pricing in an extension and reports suggest the....That votes in the days ahead should ease some of the nerves in GBP and provide a....Beyond that, the tail risk is that the EU makes an extension difficult by....An extension can only be granted by a unanimous vote of all 27 EU members so....While Brexit headlines dominated Tuesday, there were some other notable moves...US CPI registered +1...5% y/y in February compared to 1...6% expected...The FX reaction was minimal but US 10- year yields fell below 2...60% to the worst levels since Jan 4...A fall below the Jan low of 2...54% would pressure USD/JPY.
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Intraday Market Thought: Thursday's Extension Vote & Oil Trade
by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2019 13:23
Parliament votes this evening to authorize PM May to seek an extension to....The EU will need to approve it and there are signs they will push back, but FX....Parliament voted against a no-deal Brexit yesterday and the pound surged in....GBP is the strongest currency so far this week...What happens next could be even more explosive with talk that the ERG could....Better US economic data continued to fuel broader optimism...The Premium GBP trade for subscribers was closed for 160 pips right before....Details of our existing LONG oil trade entered in Feb are found below-....The Brexit drama continued with a more than 300-pip rally in cable on Wednesday....Cable hit the highs on reports that the ERG is now ready to back May in a third....The DUP will also hold fresh talks with May...That enthusiasm was tempered somewhat by indications that not all ERG members....Technically, the break above 1...3350 pushes the pair to the highest since June 2018...A close above that level and especially a weekly close above it would be....For full technicals, We will send Ashraf's GBP analysis on Real Vision TV....Elsewhere, market moves were less dramatic but still meaningful...Both oil and the S&P 500 hit multi-month highs in a sign of renewed....US Crude is at 58...67, with details of Ashraf's oil trade below...In terms of data, US core capital goods orders rose 0...8% compared to 0...2% expected...Construction spending also climbed 1...3% compared to the 0...5% forecast...Both should push Q1 GDP forecasts higher.
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Falls on Speaker Objection Pre 3rd Vote
by Adam Button | Mar 18, 2019 17:44GBP is the biggest loser of the day as UK parliament will vote once against on....Wednesday on whether to approve May's Brexit deal...Sterling's losses ensued after speaker of the House of Commons, John....Will he force the govt to rethink the vote?....تفاصيل اليورو و المؤشر المفضل (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Bercow, who is a remainer, suggested that a revised legal opinion on the deal....UK Conservatives continue in high stakes negotiations with the DUP aimed at....However it may take a fourth vote to get it across the finish line...In the third vote it will be critical for May to make significant progress...The PM needs to flip 75 votes from the last iteration to pass it...The DUP and ERG may deliver on 50 or more of those and that might be enough....If she loses by 10 votes or less, it would be enough to convince the market a....At the same time, last week's volatility may have only been a taste of the scale....It's a razors edge that could end in victory for May or a crushing defeat and....The more-important trade story is that a Trump-Xi summit could be delayed until....The sides are hung up on enforcement...The US wants the ability to unilaterally impose tariffs if it determines that IP....The US side has pushed for Trump and Xi to smooth it out at the highest levels....USD watchers are also focusing on Wednesday's FOMC announcement/press....The Fed stmt and Powell's press conference are anticipated to shed more.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Draghi, Brexit Deadlines & FOMC
by Adam Button | Apr 10, 2019 9:38Wednesday's FX & Indices levels are back to where they stood 24 hrs ago....The monthly ECB press conference and FOMC minutes from the March meeting are....US CPI is also due at 13:30...A new trade was posted yesterday with detailed chart & rationale...UK GDP and industrial production beat forecasts but GBP is focused on the EU&....فيديو للمشتركين) إغتنام فرصة المحضر...The EU is pushing for a March 30, 2020 Brexit extension in what would be....But critical details are yet to be scrutinized as it could imply a flexible,....So far EU leaders have been accommodative – at least in public....By the same token, Theresa May is on her last legs as PM and a victory for her....There was short-lived rumor of a 5-year cap on the Brexit backstop Tuesday, but....Even with that, she would have a tough time cobbling together enough votes to....Today's ECB decision/press conference won't be as captivating as....Draghi will be grilled on TLTRO details but is likely to punt until June...The market mover is likely to be the assessment and commentary on the economy...Risks are still to the downside and Italy cut its GDP forecast to just 0...2% on Tuesday but will Draghi still hold out hope for an H2 rebound? The latest....80, its highest since March 22, besting its US counterpart of -55...70...nbsp;....Technically, the euro held 1...1180 last week and that's the key level to watch...On the US side, CPI is a top-tier data point to watch but it's tough to see it....Inflation pressures are muted...The Fed minutes could be a bigger market mover...The latest comments from policymakers suggest more of a hawkish bias than the....If they emphasize that in the minutes and economic data solidifies for a few.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Saudi Mulls Response to Trump's Oil Action
by Adam Button | Apr 23, 2019 15:52
In response to the US announcement to end Iranian oil waivers aimed at....Oil is off by less about 50 cents from its 6-month highs (Brent high was $74...70 and US crude high reached $66...19)....The DOW30 Premium trade was closed at 26580 for 300 pt gain...USD strength emerges across the board with the USD index at its highest since....US new home sales jumped 4...5% in Mar, suprising estimates for a 3% deccline...All commodities are in a slump with the exception of oil...Earlier in the week, the Washington Post reported that US Secretary of State....A similar announcement was expected in September but the US balked and gave....That surprise was largely responsible for the collapse in crude in Q4...If the report is correct, the US will announce that all Iran exports as of May....Certainly some will still slip through to non-US-friendly countries but much of....25 million barrels per day of current exports will be cut...We're watching two things along with the headlines...1) The WaPo report says Pompeo will simultaneously announce offsets to Iran....Neither has enough spare capacity to make up the shortfall but that could....2) How importers respond...India remains a heavy importer of Iranian crude and though they are....Saudi Arabic is careful to repeat last year's miscaculation when it hiked....72...68 for Brent is the 61...8% retracement of the Q4 plunge...A break (and close) above that line would be a bullish development that....74...At the same time, oil exporters such as CAD, NOK should benefit while the..
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Intraday Market Thought: US-China Talks Simply Can't Fail
by Adam Button | May 10, 2019 13:09
Are we at the definitive moment of US China trade talks? Just as markets....USD dropped against non-commodity FX, signalling the subsequent stabilisation....US CPI and Canadian jobs are due next...Earlier today, UK Q1 GDP rose to 1...8% y/y from Q4's 1...4%....The Dow30 Premium short was stopped out, while USDJPY came in 10 pips short of....quot;Beautiful Letter"....USD/JPY hit a three-month low at 109...47 before regaining the 109...80s, while indices pared hald of their losses after President Trump said....The market continues to price in a low probability that talks fall apart...It's a guessing game but a deal is still probably 80% priced in so a....USD/JPY could fall another 5% to match the January low on a sour end to talks...Yet, once again, the intermarket levels that matter continue to hold (on a....The Chinese yuan is another spot to watch as it falls to a four-month low...The FX regime ensures any move won't be quick...The theoretical maximum one day move is 2% but it's never challenged that...It would need to fall 2...2% to hit a multi-year low...If China allows that to happen, then it would further inflame tensions and spark....Another axis to watch is via emerging market currencies...They're the most-sensitive to growth and capital flows...Turkey is bleeding currency reserves and the lira is at the lowest since October...The currencies of Argentina, India, Mexico and South Africa are also....But the principal EM ETF (EEM) is holding above 41 base...What's important to keep in mind is that even if talks 'fall apart'....There is no appetite for a trade war from either side? Notably, the more....Does Trump want that 18 months before his re-election? We think not...Keep watching the levels mentioned in the last two IMTs with a look at how the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Testing Support on Trade War Fire, BoC Next
by Adam Button | May 29, 2019 14:12
China has entered into a war of words that makes a quick resolution to the....This includes a report that Beijing may restrict the exports of its rare earths....more on this below)....The Bank of Canada decision is up next...The short DOW30 Premium trade hit its final 25150 target, realizing 470 pts of....A new trade was issued at the start of the London session and is already 60 pts....A report in the South China Morning Post emphasized that the US side “kept....We have no idea if that's true or if the leaked US version is true...What's important here is that China has entered into the war of words and....Before this, China had kept a lid on leaks and the domestic press...This aim of this move is at least party to harden domestic opposition to the US....Rare Eaths Threat....Although China has retaliated with tariffs on $60bn of its imports from the....This would be a serious blow to the US, which relies on China for about 80% of....China makes up more than 2/3 of the world's rare earths production...Rare earths is crucial in making smatphones and laptops faster and....US equity markets started the day in a positive mood after the long weekend but....Yields fell 4-5 bps across the curve and the 10-year is now just above the lower....22%....The further inversion of the yield curve is a bright-red flag...Keep an eye on 2777, which is the 200-DMA of S&P500....Looking ahead, central bankers have to navigate these challenges...The BOC is up next and will undoubtedly hold rates, despite months of very....Expect Poloz to hike growth forecasts but continue to insist on patience to do..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Breaks 1350, Retail Sales Next
by Adam Button | Jun 14, 2019 12:03Gold hits 14-month highs with yen on top after weak Chinese industrial output....The first vote of Conservatives MPs revealed that Boris Johnson will at....Friday's upcoming US retail sales report has the potential to be a major....Below is the Premium susbcribers' video focusing on gold and indices, with....Johnson received the support of 114 of the 314 Conservative MPs in the first....Baring some kind of scandal that leads to MPs switching their vote, the worst....At that point, broader party leadership will have the opportunity to vote for....The real race over the next two weeks will be who he faces off against...Several names will fall off the ballot and a second vote will take place on....Remainer Matt Hancock dropped out earlier this morning, leaving remainers....More on this from Ashraf here...Coming second to Johnson was Jeremy Hunt, who had the support of 43 MPs,....The results left a minimal impact on the FX market even though the betting odds....That's a reflection of key divisions that persist in the party...Theresa May voted for Hunt along with influential ministers Liam Fox and Amber....As we near today's US data, bond markets are firmly pricing 2 Fed rate....This could change in the event of surprises in the May US retail sales....The April report was weak with the control group flat compared to a 0...3% rise expected but March numbers previously were strong...The Fed has remained upbeat on consumers but this will be another test...The consensus for the headline retail sales is +0...6% but the spot to watch is the control group, which is forecast to rise 0...4%....A miss would weigh on USD and harden expectations for a rate-cutting signal..
