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Results: 881 to 890 of 1,000
Results: 881 to 890 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Draghi, Brexit Deadlines & FOMC
by Adam Button | Apr 10, 2019 9:38Wednesday's FX & Indices levels are back to where they stood 24 hrs ago....The monthly ECB press conference and FOMC minutes from the March meeting are....US CPI is also due at 13:30...A new trade was posted yesterday with detailed chart & rationale...UK GDP and industrial production beat forecasts but GBP is focused on the EU&....فيديو للمشتركين) إغتنام فرصة المحضر...The EU is pushing for a March 30, 2020 Brexit extension in what would be....But critical details are yet to be scrutinized as it could imply a flexible,....So far EU leaders have been accommodative – at least in public....By the same token, Theresa May is on her last legs as PM and a victory for her....There was short-lived rumor of a 5-year cap on the Brexit backstop Tuesday, but....Even with that, she would have a tough time cobbling together enough votes to....Today's ECB decision/press conference won't be as captivating as....Draghi will be grilled on TLTRO details but is likely to punt until June...The market mover is likely to be the assessment and commentary on the economy...Risks are still to the downside and Italy cut its GDP forecast to just 0...2% on Tuesday but will Draghi still hold out hope for an H2 rebound? The latest....80, its highest since March 22, besting its US counterpart of -55...70...nbsp;....Technically, the euro held 1...1180 last week and that's the key level to watch...On the US side, CPI is a top-tier data point to watch but it's tough to see it....Inflation pressures are muted...The Fed minutes could be a bigger market mover...The latest comments from policymakers suggest more of a hawkish bias than the....If they emphasize that in the minutes and economic data solidifies for a few.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Saudi Mulls Response to Trump's Oil Action
by Adam Button | Apr 23, 2019 15:52
In response to the US announcement to end Iranian oil waivers aimed at....Oil is off by less about 50 cents from its 6-month highs (Brent high was $74...70 and US crude high reached $66...19)....The DOW30 Premium trade was closed at 26580 for 300 pt gain...USD strength emerges across the board with the USD index at its highest since....US new home sales jumped 4...5% in Mar, suprising estimates for a 3% deccline...All commodities are in a slump with the exception of oil...Earlier in the week, the Washington Post reported that US Secretary of State....A similar announcement was expected in September but the US balked and gave....That surprise was largely responsible for the collapse in crude in Q4...If the report is correct, the US will announce that all Iran exports as of May....Certainly some will still slip through to non-US-friendly countries but much of....25 million barrels per day of current exports will be cut...We're watching two things along with the headlines...1) The WaPo report says Pompeo will simultaneously announce offsets to Iran....Neither has enough spare capacity to make up the shortfall but that could....2) How importers respond...India remains a heavy importer of Iranian crude and though they are....Saudi Arabic is careful to repeat last year's miscaculation when it hiked....72...68 for Brent is the 61...8% retracement of the Q4 plunge...A break (and close) above that line would be a bullish development that....74...At the same time, oil exporters such as CAD, NOK should benefit while the..
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Intraday Market Thought: US-China Talks Simply Can't Fail
by Adam Button | May 10, 2019 13:09
Are we at the definitive moment of US China trade talks? Just as markets....USD dropped against non-commodity FX, signalling the subsequent stabilisation....US CPI and Canadian jobs are due next...Earlier today, UK Q1 GDP rose to 1...8% y/y from Q4's 1...4%....The Dow30 Premium short was stopped out, while USDJPY came in 10 pips short of....quot;Beautiful Letter"....USD/JPY hit a three-month low at 109...47 before regaining the 109...80s, while indices pared hald of their losses after President Trump said....The market continues to price in a low probability that talks fall apart...It's a guessing game but a deal is still probably 80% priced in so a....USD/JPY could fall another 5% to match the January low on a sour end to talks...Yet, once again, the intermarket levels that matter continue to hold (on a....The Chinese yuan is another spot to watch as it falls to a four-month low...The FX regime ensures any move won't be quick...The theoretical maximum one day move is 2% but it's never challenged that...It would need to fall 2...2% to hit a multi-year low...If China allows that to happen, then it would further inflame tensions and spark....Another axis to watch is via emerging market currencies...They're the most-sensitive to growth and capital flows...Turkey is bleeding currency reserves and the lira is at the lowest since October...The currencies of Argentina, India, Mexico and South Africa are also....But the principal EM ETF (EEM) is holding above 41 base...What's important to keep in mind is that even if talks 'fall apart'....There is no appetite for a trade war from either side? Notably, the more....Does Trump want that 18 months before his re-election? We think not...Keep watching the levels mentioned in the last two IMTs with a look at how the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Testing Support on Trade War Fire, BoC Next
by Adam Button | May 29, 2019 14:12
China has entered into a war of words that makes a quick resolution to the....This includes a report that Beijing may restrict the exports of its rare earths....more on this below)....The Bank of Canada decision is up next...The short DOW30 Premium trade hit its final 25150 target, realizing 470 pts of....A new trade was issued at the start of the London session and is already 60 pts....A report in the South China Morning Post emphasized that the US side “kept....We have no idea if that's true or if the leaked US version is true...What's important here is that China has entered into the war of words and....Before this, China had kept a lid on leaks and the domestic press...This aim of this move is at least party to harden domestic opposition to the US....Rare Eaths Threat....Although China has retaliated with tariffs on $60bn of its imports from the....This would be a serious blow to the US, which relies on China for about 80% of....China makes up more than 2/3 of the world's rare earths production...Rare earths is crucial in making smatphones and laptops faster and....US equity markets started the day in a positive mood after the long weekend but....Yields fell 4-5 bps across the curve and the 10-year is now just above the lower....22%....The further inversion of the yield curve is a bright-red flag...Keep an eye on 2777, which is the 200-DMA of S&P500....Looking ahead, central bankers have to navigate these challenges...The BOC is up next and will undoubtedly hold rates, despite months of very....Expect Poloz to hike growth forecasts but continue to insist on patience to do..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Breaks 1350, Retail Sales Next
by Adam Button | Jun 14, 2019 12:03Gold hits 14-month highs with yen on top after weak Chinese industrial output....The first vote of Conservatives MPs revealed that Boris Johnson will at....Friday's upcoming US retail sales report has the potential to be a major....Below is the Premium susbcribers' video focusing on gold and indices, with....Johnson received the support of 114 of the 314 Conservative MPs in the first....Baring some kind of scandal that leads to MPs switching their vote, the worst....At that point, broader party leadership will have the opportunity to vote for....The real race over the next two weeks will be who he faces off against...Several names will fall off the ballot and a second vote will take place on....Remainer Matt Hancock dropped out earlier this morning, leaving remainers....More on this from Ashraf here...Coming second to Johnson was Jeremy Hunt, who had the support of 43 MPs,....The results left a minimal impact on the FX market even though the betting odds....That's a reflection of key divisions that persist in the party...Theresa May voted for Hunt along with influential ministers Liam Fox and Amber....As we near today's US data, bond markets are firmly pricing 2 Fed rate....This could change in the event of surprises in the May US retail sales....The April report was weak with the control group flat compared to a 0...3% rise expected but March numbers previously were strong...The Fed has remained upbeat on consumers but this will be another test...The consensus for the headline retail sales is +0...6% but the spot to watch is the control group, which is forecast to rise 0...4%....A miss would weigh on USD and harden expectations for a rate-cutting signal.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Gold at 5 yr High on Powell's 1st Dovish Turn, BoE Next
by Adam Button | Jun 20, 2019 11:45
The Fed finally lived up to the market's dovish expectations as Powell made....It was the first aggresively dovish turn and the first dovish dissent in the era....Gold broke above 1350 to hit a 5-year high of 1394 and silver broke 15...00 to reach 15...40...The pound was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The BoE decision is up next...The Premium Insights gold long reached its final target of 1380 (from 1280....Each of the 3 other existing USD Premium trades are at least 100 pips in the....Below is the latest FOMC statement with a strikethrough comparison with the....The market went from 'fairly certain' of a rate cut in July to '....The dots now show nearly half of the Fed anticipating two cuts this year...Powell pinned the shifts in language on rising uncertainty from trade and global....The market reacted by fully pricing in a July cut with a small chance of a 50....A second cut in September is 86% priced into the Fed funds futures market as....It was a historic Fed outcome as not only it signalled the first clear dovish....nbsp;....The bond market was surprised by the outright turn and 2-year yields fell 13....73%....Ten-year yields were down 3 basis points in a slight signal that the Fed is....Given the falls in yields, the dollar decline was initially muted with roughly....The modest decline at the start reflected the continuing larger role of....It also reflects the Fed's assessment that global factors are the....Cable has engineered a solid turnaround after finding support at 1...2500 on Tuesday to reach 1...2720...Rory Stewart was eliminated from the Conservative leadership race and now it&....That man will be decide in the final two votes of MPs on Thursday...All the remaining candidates are polling behind Johnson within the party and....Any signs of a united front from Conservatives will give them a better....If Hunt, Gove or Javid chooses to fight, it will signal more gridlock on the....As we move to the BoE decision next, governor Carney may choose to dial back....If he decided to stick with a positive tone, the rally in GBP will continue...The Premium Insights remain long GBPUSD from 1.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Lowe Asks the Question
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2019 12:25
RBA Governor Lowe touched a delicate subject that his counterparts may also....The German June IFO survey beat expectations for the current assessment....We expect a period of a relative lull in the markets ahead of Trump/Xi meeting....GBP pushes above 1...2740 as Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson battle it out for the PM race...More below...nbsp; The Premium long in XRP Ripple at 0...33 entry hit the final target of 0...49...The long EURUSD Premium long at 1...1230 is a few pips away from its final 1...1400 target for 170-pip gain...Below are the chart breakouts for EURUSD and XAUUSD net longs among speculative....In a panel discussion on Monday, RBA Governor Lowe mused that it's....Domestically he also cast questions, saying the exchange rate effect of....That gave the Australian dollar a boost to start the week...We ended the week with US equity markets near an all-time record and economic....The Fed is undoubtedly committed to at least one rate cut, but if US-China....That could be the signal from bonds late in the week as long-end yield crept....At the same time, proxies for global easy money like gold and bitcoin....Here is a useful Bitcoin factoid from Ashraf....With regards to the latest in the race for Conservative Party leader and PM,....nbsp; Reports of domestic violence related to Boris Johnson may have....More on this from Ashraf.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Powell's Testimony
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 10, 2019 13:02
Thin summer trading volumes will sustain a brief jolt as Fed Chair Powell....e...8:30 Eastern/13:30 London) and tomorrow...The testimony and ensuing Q&A will shed further light on the probability of....It may be too soon for Powell to hint at the magnitude of the rate cut for Jul....FX traders bear in mind the following: Powell has already stated the economic....e...not limited to the trade war...USD bulls argue that any rate cut would only be a one-time adjustment instead of....USD bulls will also state that the magnitude of the rate cut does not....USD bears could point to the fact that the Fed has never conducted a policy....Additionally, limited or no Fed easing will exacerbate the disinflationary....Powell can't afford to get his price stability objective off the markt...And don't forget the export-reliant sector of US companies desparate for....nbsp;....Regardless of Powell's message, it will be unlikely for him to be so....While trading opportunities should return, no trend-breaking moves are....nbsp;....As important as the speech will be, do not disregard the Q&A with....For the tradable implications of my extensive analysis, tune in to the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Shale & Powell Resistance Eyed
by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2019 12:40
USD is up across the board, while GBP is at new 2019 lows on fears of no-deal....An important US data report is due shortly, followed by several Fed....Will Powell's speech present new resistance to the US dollar as it did....nbsp; CFTC data showed an increasingly crowded GBP trade...Two new Premium trades are set to be issued this week...WTI crude rose to the highest since late-May last week as it climbed above $60...There was some concern heading into the weekend with Hurricane Barry threatening....It ultimately made landfall as a Category 1 stor and underperformed most....The start of hurricane season is a fresh reminder that old rules for US crude....A decade ago, the US imported roughly 5 million barrels per day of crude via the....But due to the shale revolution, Gulf net exports are now roughly zero...That could leave gluts points and drive down prices, especially if refineries....At the same time, there will still be offshore production shutdowns so global....Retail Sales, Powell et al....Looking ahead, Tuesday's release of US June retail sales (control group) is....3% rise from a downward revised 0...4%....Fed Vice chair Bowman speaks 15 mins before retail sales, followed by Fed....Chicago Fed's Evans will speak 2...5 hr later...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -36K vs -31K prior...GBP -73K vs -64K prior...JPY -4K vs -1K prior...CHF -10K vs -11K prior...CAD +9K vs +6K prior...AUD -54K vs -58K prior...NZD -22K vs -24K prior....The general theme over the past few weeks is US dollar longs headed to the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Deal Mirage, Earnings Unease & G7 Chatter
by Adam Button | Jul 18, 2019 10:24
A fresh report on Wednesday saying the US-China have failed to make any....Moreover, there is a growing sense that the conditions aren't right for a....GBP is the strongest currency on a combination of stronger than expected UK....See the notes on Alcoa, CSX and Netflix below...Euro lost ground on a report stating that the ECB may revamp its approach to....Both of this week's newly added Premium trades are in the green...There are currently 6 trades open...The Premium Video titled "The Short Backed by All 3 Metrics" is out...A WSJ report said US-China talks are hung-up on executing the US pledge to....Once that's sorted out, China has pledged to buy US agricultural goods...The problem is the White House is struggling to decide what to allow the....The inability to make any concrete progress after several indications of an....Equity markets stumbled Tuesday after initial comments from Trump expressing....The economic backdrop also makes it tough to envision a deal...The US reopened talks in December after a 20% drop in stock markets; now they&....There are also signs that China's economy is surviving a pivot towards....G7 FX Chatter....Here is a tweet from Ashraf on the G7 meeting in Paris:....In other economic news, the Fed's Beige Book underscored a solid US....Commentary highlighted unease about trade but a 'generally positive'....Earnings continue to paint a slightly different picture...Railway operator CSX warned of softening demand Tuesday and aluminum giant Alcoa....Netflix tumbled 13% on news that it lost 130K US clients.
