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Results: 81 to 90 of 1,000
Results: 81 to 90 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: What Does the Fed See?
by Adam Button | Jul 29, 2020 17:32
Wednesday's FOMC meeting comes with little fanfare and even less scope for....CHF, EUR and GBP are the outperformers, while silver, kiwi and gold are the....Watch what Powell will say about inflation, its targetting and the USD...US consumer confident painted a troubling picture...The Pre-Fed Premium English & Arabic Video for Premium susbcribers is found....Also watch how Powell answers questions on the US dollar -- as Ashraf alluded to....nbsp;....There are increasing signs of a retrenchment in the US economy...Another came Tuesday with consumer confident falling to 92...6 from 98...3...Economists were forecasting 95...0 but the miss was probably priced into markets after a similar miss in the....The drop in the 'expectations' component was particularly worrisome as....5 from 106...1...It's one of the better leading indicators and is now only modestly....The change in tone isn't an aberration...There are an increasing number of high-frequency indicators that show a....In terms of that data, the Fed has access to some of the best numbers....The market is hungry for that kind of analysis and the risk is that the....If so, the market could recoil unless it's accompanied by strong....The danger is that vague hints of more action won't be enough for a market....With all that, the Fed may end up deferring to Congress and the need for....Another main axis for the decision will be the response of precious metals...The recent run-up is in danger of a retracement if the Fed isn't....The decision is at 1800 GMT followed by Powell's press conference 30 minutes..
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil in the Eye of the Hurricane
by Adam Button | Aug 26, 2020 14:01
Markets are not totally inactive ahead of Thursday's speech from Fed chair....In the span of a few months, oil went from the world's most-volatile....More below...nbsp; US durable goods orders jumped by 11% in July, beating expectations,....A new Premium trade was issued moments ago, backed by 3 charts & 5 key....Members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group were alerted right after today's....nbsp;....The winds of Hurricane Laura continue to strengthen as it crosses the warm....That led to the highest close in WTI on Tuesday since the pandemic and also left....Laura is gaining in strength and appraoching to be a "catastrophic&....More than half a million people were ordered to evacuate in Texas and....Most offshore production is shut down and the storm is headed right for the....The problem for oil bulls is that a storm does nothing to change the overall....There's still 10m barrels of spare OPEC capacity and the latest mobility....With that, it's dangerous to see a short-term storm-inspired breakout as a....At the same time, commodities everywhere have been strong as the US dollar....At times, the Canadian dollar has acted as a good leading indicator for oil and....This is already the most-hated rally in history, why not add an oil chapter?....In terms of the broader risk trade, a big miss in August US consumer....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Don't Watch if you Haven't Traded it لا تشاهد اذا ما تداولته
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 7, 2020 2:05Forget Tuesday's testimonials ! Here is direct access to Tuesday's....Bring a ruler...Full Video لماذا وكيف حددنا قمة الداو 24 ساعة قبل.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Data Slows, Market Hesitant
by Adam Button | Nov 20, 2020 19:26
Economic data is slowing and policymakers are highlighting more....Markets are closely watching the deepening staff shortage in US hospitals....nbsp; USD ended the week weaker against all major currencies, while....nbsp; 10-year yield was capped below the Sep trendline resistance and....NASDAQ remain supressed at the 11990/00 trendline resistance, while ....nbsp;....Thursday's initial jobless claims report showed went in the wrong....This was also reference week for non-farm payrolls so there is some weakness....Pandemic emergency claims also rose week-over-week – they're slated to....Other reports from the Philly Fed and on existing home sales were strong but the....The latest tracking data from JPMorgan shows lower credit card spending in....The Fed's Mester also warned that economic data is slowing and Kaplan said....More virus economic curbs continue to roll in and New York now appears to be....Those worries briefly hit equities on Wednesday but they bounced from an early....US health authorities reported that 1 in 5 hospitals anticipated critical staff....Shortages are worst in the Midwest...The FX market also brushed off the worries as the dollar softened and....The risk-sensitive Mexican peso also traced out an outside day in an....The market isn't blind to the looming virus curbs, the coming dark....The market continues to look beyond the virus and dips on negative news about....More likely to move the market is weekend positioning in sterling...There's chatter about a Brexit breakthrough (as always) but we're....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Opening Video to All فيديو الأمس مفتوح للكل
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 21, 2020 14:54
Opening access to yesterday's Premium video, showing the use of Gold....Watch now...nbsp;شاهد الآن كيف نستعمل صناديق الاستثمار و العقود الآجلة لتداول الذهب.
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Intraday Market Thought: No Deal Dilemma
by Adam Button | Dec 11, 2020 16:09
GBP sustains its worst week in 3 months as Brussels warned EU against....Boris Johnson said on Friday it was "very very likely" Britain....It's dangerous to assume that any deadline in Europe is solid but Sunday....More broadly, the US dollar slump continues as commodity currencies surge...December US consumer sentiment will offer an early look at holiday shopping...Yesterday's Premium short in cable is more than 100 pips in the green,....nbsp; DAX hit its H&S target of 13040 as explained in the voice note....nbsp; ....Boris Johnson's playbook has always been to concede little and take....At the same time, if he's bluffing that a no-deal Brexit is now a '....Sterling continues to hold at strong levels, suggesting that the bulls haven&....The corollary is that the upside risk/reward for betting on a deal is limited...Ashraf mentioned the possibilities for scalping/daytrading GBPUSD for WhatsApp....nbsp;....What's particularly worrisome is that there are so few positive murmurs....Add it up and the odds of a bad outcome are rising...On the vaccine front, the US cleared a final regulatory hurdle for approving....That may inspire a relief rally but we're watching the news from Sanofi and....The product now won't be available until the end of next year at best...Every vaccine matters because the enormous challenge of vaccinating the....While the UK and US will be at the front of the line even with the current....In this case, the market may forgive one setback but two or three repeats would....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Powell needs more Inflation at what cost?
by Adam Button | Feb 10, 2021 18:46
Powell needs and wants more inflation, but will it be at the cost that bond....4% y/y...Powell should start speaking now and he will likely say something along the....Interestingly, USD fell and metals rose on the lower than expected CPI figures...nbsp; Chinese CPI on Wednesday was soft but US January prices could tell a....Meanwhile, here's Ashraf's latest on Ethereum's rally vs gold....nbsp;....Brent cruised through $60 this week to $61 in a quick return to pre-pandemic....The jump in oil pales in comparison to many other commodities that are trading....Couple that with ongoing shortages in industrial equipment including computer....US 10-year breakevens are already at the highest since 2014...What really has the market's attention is the year-over-year comps....That will very likely lead to a period of above-target inflation...Central banks know this and have pledged to look through it, but in the spirit....rdquo; And don't forget that housing markets are extremely tight in much of....We have no doubt that inflation will be the dominant market story in the year(s)....At the same time, the risk-positive backdrop will remain until there is a....One comforting number on Wednesday came from China where prices were down 0...3% y/y compared to a flat reading expected...Even with the economy affected less by the pandemic, inflation isn't a....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dots May Undermine Powell’s Message
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 17, 2021 17:18
The magnitude of the Fed's communication challenge will be in focus....USD is up across the board, as yields shoot up as yields hit a fresh 13-mth....69%....nbsp;The FOMC faces a dilemma...The market is now signaling that inflation will rise above the Fed's....3%....The below posts from Ashraf were supported by the case of December 2018....More details in the voice note on Ashraf's English Telegram Channel استماع....Many in the market believe that's a cue for the Fed to signal tighter policy....However that goes against the Fed's new doctrine of running inflation hot to....After all, if you signal hikes as soon as 2% is on the horizon, doesn't it....In all likelihood, the message Powell will send is patience...He's repeatedly highlighted high numbers of unemployed Americans and the....Expect that to remain the script on Wednesday...The problem is that the dot plot may undermine the Fed chair...Currently, 5 of 17 dots show at least one hike in 2023...It would only take 4 dots shifting in that direction to put the median at a....Consider that since the Dec forecasts we've had two huge stimulus package....In the past the message from the dot plots has drowned out the Chairman and....Moreover, this will be the first report to include 2024 dots, which may show a....75%....Finally, the forecasts and dots will land 30 minutes before the FOMC press....Overall, the Fed faces a daunting communication challenge...Only two weeks ago, the market was begging for it to talk down yields and....That pendulum can swing quickly again.
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Glows Ahead of US & Canada Jobs
by Adam Button | May 6, 2021 22:17
US and Canada jobs data are due, with gold and GBP clearly edging higher vs....GBP awaits the results of the Scottish Elections, which will likely be....Gold and silver broke into key levels as the Bank of England was the latest....The BoE performance on Thursday was a mess as officials tapered and at the....US non-farm payrolls and Canadian jobs are due up next (more below) The....nbsp;Clients were also forewarned ahead of the BoE decision for a preliminary....Cable traded in an 80 pip range in minutes after the BoE announcement as....Cable initially dropped to 1...3858 then spiked to 1...3940 – both session extremes...It was a communication mess, largely because Bailey was frightened (no other....There appears to be a strong school of thought outside of the Bank of Canada....Given the enormous improvements in the global economy, it's all getting a....Outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane dissented in favor of a real taper...His comments with it emphasize a different possible approach, noting that....The risk is that by being overly cautious, central bankers will fall....A brighter outlook along with associated inflation risks are a big part of the....It rose to the best levels since February on Thursday, rising $30 to....Further evidence of economic strength could come in jobs reports from the US....Non-farm payrolls are expected at exactly 1 million but digging through....There's every reason to believe there was massive hiring in April,....Economists tend to get gun shy when predicting extremes so there's room....The unemployment rate is expected to ease to 5...8% from the prior 6...0%, while average hourly earnings edging up to zero from -0...1%....In Canada, it's a different picture as many parts of the country went in a....The consensus is between -150K & -160K...The loonie is trading at 4-year highs though, and is looking beyond this tough..
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Intraday Market Thought: Wilting Indices, Patterns, FX and Bitcoin
by Ashraf Laidi | May 6, 2022 18:37
Just as traders learn to forget buy-the-dip habit and embrace selling-the-bounce....A higher S&P500 close today would be the first positive Friday close since....What this really means, is that equity indices have not had a positive Friday....Friday's closing action tend to be quite relevant as it reflects traders&....And what is different this week from Tesla-Apple-Microsfot TAMs...nbsp;....nbsp;....Before looking ahead, let's highlight some hard lessons of the past....The SPX fell 9% in April (a seasonally strong month), which was the biggest....The Dow's 4...9% April drop was also the worst April since 1970, when it fell 6%....You would have to go back to the "Kennedy Slide of 1962" to find....Nasdaq fell 13% in April, the worst since the 14% plunge in April 2000...Lessons from this statistics tell us that long-standing seasonalities are....ldquo;This-time-is-different” tend to be relevant here...The 2nd lesson (more of a reminder) is the presence of bear market rallies...When you see indices end the session up 1%-2% after reversing an intraday drop....Said differently, such intraday volatility is more common during....nbsp;....With the weight of the Fed and NFP behind us, there remains the comforting....As for the double bottom in VVIX/VIX mentioned here ,we remain above the....5...nbsp;....In FX, the most striking development was GBP's break after the BoE's....Notably, G10 currencies held their own vs the USD during Thursday's all-....This was also helped re-emerging speculation of an earlier than....nbsp; ....nbsp;....Bitcoin is entering its 5th falling week, which is the longest series of....Would you believe that? Bitcoin has not fallen for 5 straight weeks in over 7....BTC will have to close this week above $38,100 to maintain its 5-red-weeks....On a positive angle, BTC has managed to close at higher lows (Jan 25, Feb 24 and....nbsp;....nbsp;..
