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  • Intraday Market Thought: Narrative Disconnect

    by Adam Button | Sep 14, 2020 16:09
    The closer you look, the more the September bout of market instability....All three major US indices tested their 55-DMA before rebounding off them today...Ashraf reminds us to give little importance to Monday-Rebounds and focus....CFTC position showed an ill-fated climbing in sterling longs just as it....A new Premium trade was posted ahead of the US cash open...Below is the year-to-date performance charts, showing silver is up a whopping....nbsp;....US stocks fell to fresh one-month lows on Friday before a late bounce but....A classic risk trades is AUD/JPY and it's roughly where it was two weeks ago and....There has been some volatility but nothing like the correction in equities...USD/MXN is another good risk barometer but the recovery in emerging market....Late last week, the pair made a major technical breakdown with the fall below....There's also the bond market where Treasury yields are only slightly below....The precious metals market also continues to consolidate in the centre....Stepping back, we see idiosyncratic declines in three main markets...1) Tech stocks and other high-flying pandemic stocks are seeing a clear....This is likely a reflection of overvaluation after a speculative mania;....2) Sterling has fallen because Brexit negotiations are breaking down...3) Oil is being hit by demand worries...This is the most concerning because it may reflect real economic weakness but....One argument is that stock markets are simply ahead of the pack and that's....The message for now is not to transpose these moves on FX trades and expect the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +198K vs +197K prior...GBP +13K vs +6K prior...JPY +22K vs +30K prior...CHF +12K vs +12K prior...CAD -17K vs -27K prior...AUD -2K vs 0K prior...NZD +5K vs +7K prior...None of the moves in this week's report are large but climb in sterling longs..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Real Yields & Fed Take Away

    by Adam Button | Sep 29, 2020 17:25
    Real Yields & Fed Take Away Chart As money flows make up their mind during the quarter-end tango of sector and....This is pushing metals across the board, with silver and gold at the top,....nbsp; Meanwhile, oil bears and CAD bears are closely watching US crude's 100-....80s...Last week we heard from 14 different Federal Reserve speakers last week and....CFTC positioning data showed a rebound in EUR longs...nbsp; Last week's Premium long in GBPNZD hit its final target of 1...9680 for 270-pip gain...Earlier today, a new Premium trade was opened and is currently 250-pt in the....nbsp;....Last week included a non-stop parade of Fed speakers but the underlying message....There were debates about raising rates in 2023 but very little to suggest any....On more QE, a number highlighted that it would do little because yields are....Others emphasized that yield curve control would also have only marginal....Powell highlighted that they have already done almost anything they could....On business loans, he suggested there could be some flexibility to make them....It all begs the question: How much of the recent turmoil in markets is a by-....It may not be a coincidence that the dollar has been strong since the FOMC....For those watching the Fed closely, nothing they've said or done is a....Contrast that with the BOE talking negative rates and other banks finding....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +191K vs +179K prior...GBP +3 vs +2K prior...JPY +30K vs +23K prior...CHF +16K vs +12K prior...CAD -19K vs -17K prior...AUD +16K vs +16K prior...NZD +5K vs +3K prior...Euro longs backed off two weeks ago but the latest data show a rebound and it&....Aside from the euro, it was generally a 'stand pat' week, which is a....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall

    by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2020 22:15
    Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall Chart OPEC didn't deliver what markets were expecting on Thursday but crude....Sterling was the top performer on Brexit optimism while the US dollar lagged...Non-farm payrolls are due up next...If you are a member of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group and not received any....We await to hear from WhatsApp regarding the problem...Thursday was all about deal-making with OPEC, Brexit and US stimulus all in play...The market continues to lean towards a Brexit deal but hopes are now pinned on....US stimulus talks continue to move in a positive direction but we're not at....It was OPEC+ that made its move on Thursday and it wasn't the 3 month....Instead, OPEC opted for a plan to raise production 500k bpd each month starting....We would have expected some crude selling on that but after a small blip,....50...Brent also finished more than 1% higher...The adage that applies here is: When a market can't fall on bad news, it....Holding well-above the recent range in crude through the OPEC news is a good....OPEC still has 7...2mbpd of spare capacity so that will certainly keep oil from running higher....That was reflected in the Canadian dollar Thursday as USD/CAD fell to the....The break of 1...30 clears out a key support level and highlights the case for a further....The EUR/USD breakout resumed on Thursday as it climbed above 1...21 and it was joined by the Australian dollar in a climb above the September....7411 to the best levels since 2018...The dollar is behaving like a classic bear market, as intermittent....The trigger on Wednesday was more positive talk on US stimulus...It's tough to know if differences can be bridged but Democratic leaders....In the shorter-term though, the trade will evolve around Friday's US and....Non-farm payrolls estimates have come down and sit at 478K...Homebase hiring numbers point to the risk of a downside surprise but markets....On the flipside, a positive surprise may be welcomed, leaving a positive skew.

  • Intraday Market Thought: How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2021 20:00
    How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات Chart Here is a recap of what and how we approached shorting the DOW, SPX and DAX....We started abour 45 mins before Wednesday's FOMC announcement....Please see the details of the last 3 days...nbsp; تفضلوا بملخص محتوى صفقاتنا لبيع مؤشر الداو و الداكس من يوم الاربعاء....من القروب العرب..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold's Anniversary & Flash Crash

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 9, 2021 14:54
    Nearly 365 days after hitting its $2075 high, gold gets a double punch by strong....Thin liquidity conditions, exaggerated by light summertime staff played a big....The fact that bond yields and USD were relatively muted, highlights the....But Friday's stellar US jobs report will likely trigger fresh selling bouts....900K NFP combined with larger than expected fall in the unemployment (from....9% to 5...4%), over 119K in upward revisions and 0...4% in average hourly earnings m/m, raise chances that Fed tapering of asset....Rather than persistent selling at the lows, gold will likely see offers....We saw such activity exactly this same time last year, days after gold hit its....The question then becomes whether we will see a break below 1600, similar to....nbsp; The answer to that question is found in the video from 14:30..

  • Hot-Chart: Upcoming Breakout in Gold Longs?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 8, 2021 17:05
    Upcoming Breakout in Gold Longs? Chart We know that Gold's commitment reports from the Comex is for the....The last data point in the yellow graph is for the week ending last Tues (Nov....Since we know what happened to gold over the last 6 days, the next data point....For more background, see a recent video about net Comex commitments.

  • Intraday Market Thought: It's not too late to use the tool

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2021 23:32
    It's not too late to use the tool Chart It's not too late to learn how to implement the VVIX/VIX ratio in helping....e...shifts in risk appetite...No, the ratio is NOT standalone tool...Instead, it can be valuable and helpful in enabling you to anticipate lows....We use the late September 2021 example for identifying bottoms (7:02 mins of....I also show you how to use the ratio and where to obtain free...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 9, 2021 18:49
    Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it Chart On Wednesday we went short the Nasdaq100 for the WhatsApp Broadcast Group near....Those whose stop was not hit, saw the index fall as low as 16230 and now is....We used the VVIX/VIX ratio as an added basis for shorting the Nasdaq (not the....nbsp; Again, entering a trade (or any other trade) is all about confidence i...e having as sufficient technical reasons (such as patterns, moving averages,....In the case of the VVIX/VIX, the possible double top (see chart....See the latest video on how to use the VVIX/VIX ratio and where to get and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bond Market Calling Fed

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2022 0:48
    Bond Market Calling Fed Chart Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that....Bonds have often foretold shifts by the Fed--policy reversals, or hard stops in....The US yield curve started flattening 12 mths after the end of the 2020....The 10-2 curve never began flattening so soon and so deep after the end of a....This only highlights the unsustainable and elusory nature of the past 24 mths....A prolonged drop in yields next week could accompany a catch-down by the S&....Falling yields could be brought about by a sudden turn to the worse on the....More realistically, it could result from Fed Chair Powell sounding unfazed by....Think about it...Bitcoin meanwhile, could well retest the $30K support but the recovery should....Finally, gold and silver continue to do everything "right" so far...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Back to the GoldBugs Ratio

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2022 22:38
    Back to the GoldBugs Ratio Chart As you debate whether to take funds from your underperforming altcoins and place....So you freeze...What to do? Do you finally realize that 60% portfolio loss in your tech stocks....How can it help you?....As gold rises along gold stocks (metals and miners), the latter tends to rise....I've shown in past youtube video how to use the relationship ....With the goldbugs ratio in the lower panel suggesting further declines....0 trendline support, it could argue for $2000 as early as this quarter...And it so appears that we're well on our way of getting ride of that 2013/14....Let's see what Biden/Powell have to say before buying any gold dips...nbsp;....nbsp; ..
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