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  • Intraday Market Thought: Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 9, 2021 18:49
    Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it Chart On Wednesday we went short the Nasdaq100 for the WhatsApp Broadcast Group near....Those whose stop was not hit, saw the index fall as low as 16230 and now is....We used the VVIX/VIX ratio as an added basis for shorting the Nasdaq (not the....nbsp; Again, entering a trade (or any other trade) is all about confidence i...e having as sufficient technical reasons (such as patterns, moving averages,....In the case of the VVIX/VIX, the possible double top (see chart....See the latest video on how to use the VVIX/VIX ratio and where to get and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bond Market Calling Fed

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2022 0:48
    Bond Market Calling Fed Chart Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that....Bonds have often foretold shifts by the Fed--policy reversals, or hard stops in....The US yield curve started flattening 12 mths after the end of the 2020....The 10-2 curve never began flattening so soon and so deep after the end of a....This only highlights the unsustainable and elusory nature of the past 24 mths....A prolonged drop in yields next week could accompany a catch-down by the S&....Falling yields could be brought about by a sudden turn to the worse on the....More realistically, it could result from Fed Chair Powell sounding unfazed by....Think about it...Bitcoin meanwhile, could well retest the $30K support but the recovery should....Finally, gold and silver continue to do everything "right" so far...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Back to the GoldBugs Ratio

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2022 22:38
    Back to the GoldBugs Ratio Chart As you debate whether to take funds from your underperforming altcoins and place....So you freeze...What to do? Do you finally realize that 60% portfolio loss in your tech stocks....How can it help you?....As gold rises along gold stocks (metals and miners), the latter tends to rise....I've shown in past youtube video how to use the relationship ....With the goldbugs ratio in the lower panel suggesting further declines....0 trendline support, it could argue for $2000 as early as this quarter...And it so appears that we're well on our way of getting ride of that 2013/14....Let's see what Biden/Powell have to say before buying any gold dips...nbsp;....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Never via a Bear Steepener

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 20, 2023 20:39
    Why do I post photos with animals late on Friday when the market is hurting and....All 5 emerged by way of bull steepening...The chart below shows US 10-yr yields are still below 2-year yields (inverted....There are two ways in which yield curve steepens (or normalises): Narrowing the....The case today is way more dangerous for the economy and the markets...I will discuss all this in more detail at tomorrow's London Trader Show&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Central Bank Extravaganza

    by Adam Button | Jan 21, 2015 0:29
    Traders may have been looking for some paring of US dollar positions into a big....The pound kept pace with the dollar at the top of the FX leaderboard while the....We look at what's expected in a big day for central banks...nbsp;In addition to our Premium trades in CADJPY, NZDCAD and AUDJPY, We opened....nbsp;....The first central bank decision is Japan...There's no set time for the BOJ but it's generally between 0230 GMT and....A tip-off toward any surprise generally comes with a later release...We've heard some chatter about more easing but nothing from the BOJ....Instead, Kuroda will likely lower the inflation outlook to 1...3% from 1...7% for FY2015 but blame oil and leave 2016 unchanged at 2...1%....A one-year extension in the bank lending facility and measures to strengthen the....In Europe, ECB expectations have grown so substantial and concrete that it....However, if the amount of buying is left ambiguous or open-ended, it's a....In Canada, USD/CAD rose to a fresh 5-year high above 1...21 with the BOC decision looming...Another nearly 5% drop in oil along with a soft manufacturing sales report (-1...4% vs -0...7% exp with downward revisions) were catalysts for the move but positioning....nbsp;The BOC is likely to follow the IMF's lead in revising down Canadian....Last week Lane hinted the return to full capacity in the economy could be....If so, the upside in USD/CAD continues to look attractive.

  • Hot-Chart: Fed will Cut "Transitory" in September

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 14, 2015 15:44
    Fed will Cut Transitory in September Chart A Russian saying goes “nothing is more permanent than temporary”....At the Federal Reserve, “transitory” may mean “....Oil has dropped by 57% since over the last 12 months but the +200 PhDs at the....At the June FOMC, the Fed made some progress and finally dropped its phrase....nbsp;....We long asserted that it will be impossible for the Fed to raise rates....00—even if the next non-farm payrolls come in between 200K and 300K...The October-March decline has already triggered a chain reaction of broadening....nbsp; And barely when oil began its spring time recovery, the declines....Yesterday's release of US July import prices contracted (not slowed) by....9% m/m and 10...4% y/y, the biggest fall since 2009...nbsp; We expect oil to inevitably fall below $40, which would be a 60% decline....Market-based vs survey-based inflation....Next week's CPI release will be in focus...But the 5-year forward break-even inflation reference (5-year treasury....0% from last week's 2...4%....More importantly for the Fed, will be the crucial core PCE price index, due....3%y/y, below the Fed's 2...0% target...Jackson Hole will be about inflation....Holding oil and the US dollar constant (if we can realistically do that), the....But bringing back reality into the situation, including a disinflationary....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: What’s the Worry?

    by Adam Button | Jan 7, 2016 0:12
    What’s the Worry? Chart We look at the myriad of reasons that sentiment has deteriorated and whether....Oil fell 6% on Wednesday and commodity currencies were beaten up again while....Australian building approvals are due later...There are currently six Premium trades in progress, three in profit and three....The magnitude of negativity caught virtually everyone off guard to begin....China....The most-widely cited problem is China and the worries kicked off with a 6...8% opening day decline in the Shanghai Composite...Officials have spent the past three days shoring up markets with various....Concerns about yuan weakness are prevalent but it's not a shock to....China scares come and go...The past two episodes have shown that the rest of global markets are....That's a scary thought for the future because big swings in Chinese....In the near-term, there is no reason for sustained risk aversion...The PBOC and government both have plenty of firepower to shore up the economy....Broader emerging markets....This is a genuine worry...The World Bank released its semi-annual report Wednesday and downgraded global....None of that is a big surprise but what caught our attention was a forecast for....5% contraction in Brazil...Other commodity-producing emerging markets are taking heavy hits as well....The Fed....The FOMC minutes were a tad on the dovish side Wednesday but they're....In the past two weeks several influential Fed members have been....The market has been largely humoring the Fed's tough talk and doesn't....The market could probably swallow 2-3 hikes but any more would show the Fed is....Geopolitics....Tension in the Middle East and exaggerated military claims from North....Perhaps the headlines have added to the sour mood but until the bullets start....Overall....We're through three days of trading in 2016...Nothing in the global outlook has materially changed...It's the time of year when flows dominate...Like everyone, we've been surprised by the magnitude of worries and we will....The jury should stay out at least until the second week of the year...In the short-term, the focus is on the Australian dollar, which is down 4...4% against the yen already...The main releases are at 0030 GMT with Australian trade balance and building....It's tough to envision either number being strong/weak enough to overcome..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Refocusing on the Data

    by Adam Button | Feb 16, 2016 21:53
    Refocusing on the Data Chart Markets go through periods of confusion and comfort but ultimately, the data is....The yen was the top performer and the New Zealand dollar lagged after a soft....Japanese machine tool orders and a speech from the Fed's Rosengren are....nbsp; A new Video Analysis on existing and possible trades has been posted here...nbsp;....فيديو جديد: فيديو جديد: التركيز على العملات و التوازن بين الدولار و اليورو....Central banks be hard pressed to stimulate economies in the foreseeable....Comments – including Wednesday's FOMC Minutes – will continue to....Economic data won't...The market doesn't yet have a strong sense of how growth in developed....The current conditions of the German ZEW sentiment survey fell to 52...3 from 59...7 as the entire survey deteriorated...It's not a big surprise given the declines in equity markets but if there....In the UK, it's abundantly clear that Carney misread the inflation....The CPI fell 0...8% m/m and core inflation rose just 1...2% y/y compared to 1...3% expected...How much Brexit questions are weighing are a matter of opinion but ultimately....In the United States, the strong dollar continues to sap manufacturing with the....6 compared to -10...5 expected...The Bank of Canada believes it will be on the other side of the equation and....2% on the heels of a strong export report...The worrisome detail was that new orders were down 2...1% so the optimism might be misplaced, especially after seeing the plunge in....Japan is desperate to bet on a weak yen as a panacea with middling results...The latest data will come in the form of the January final machine tool orders....2% so the bar is very low...The Fed remains optimistic and will be the focus of the day ahead with the....Beforehand, the Fed's Rosengren will deliver a speech at 0000 GMT...Earlier, the Fed's Harker said a stabilization in the dollar was a key....Kashkari said he still expects gradual hikes but financial market developments..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Best of a Bad Bunch

    by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2016 23:38
    The Best of a Bad Bunch Chart No one wants a strong currency...The dollar bulls tried to bid up the currency ahead of Yellen but she....nbsp; We break down the efforts central bankers and market forces are taking to....Japanese industrial production is due later...Ashraf's Premium Insights issued a long in EURUSD 1 hour before the Yellen....Various technical and fundamental reasons were cited but Ashraf kept it....In the lead-up to Yellen's speech on Tuesday the main line of thinking was....We warned yesterday that was unlikely and that's what happened...She said caution on raising rates was 'especially warranted', was....The US dollar slumped in response...The immediate move was 40-70 pips across the board and that extended to upwards....We anticipated and understand the reasons for selling USD today but the....USD/JPY slid back below 113...00 but the Japanese government is desperate to keep it above 111...00...It's the same story in Europe where the ECB is pushing rates ever lower...Spanish 5-year yields hit a record low of 0...375% on Tuesday...Sterling is at the mercy of Brexit talk as polls show a close contest or the....The New Zealand dollar was up 2% on the day as it benefitted from a technical....It was lifted further early in Wed trade by a 10...8% m/m jump in building permits...That runs in contrast to the RBNZ, which delivered a surprise rate cut this....The RBA's Stevens is so fond of jawboning he had is wrist slapped by the....On a growth and investment perspective, perhaps AUD and NZD remain best but the....That leaves CAD, which has had a great month, but do you really want to bet on..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Stumbles Despite Dudley’s Help

    by Adam Button | May 20, 2016 0:27
    Dollar Stumbles Despite Dudley’s Help Chart Hawkish hints from the Fed's Dudley failed to boost the US dollar Thursday....The yen was the top performer on the day while the Canadian dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific schedule is light but the G7 finance minister meetings are....USDCAD was stopped out, while one CAD trade remains open ahead of Friday's....nbsp;....Dudley is generally a more-dovish FOMC member but he endorsed market pricing of....He said a hike will depend on data and emphasized that growth will need to pick....That should have given another lift to the US dollar but it didn't...Instead the dollar gave back about 50 pips of gains across the board as the....Economic data was a small factor as the Philly Fed business outlook, Chicago Fed....The Fed's Fischer also spoke but avoided monetary policy while Lacker was....Still, that lack of dollar momentum into the end of the day was a disappointment...After the FOMC Minutes, dollar bulls had a strong reason to buy and Dudley....Breakouts in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD looked to be under way...But instead of picking up momentum on the breaks, the dollar stumbled and....For now, it's only a minor setback for the US dollar but it's a concern....For the G7, note that this weekend is for central bankers and finance....Media reports say Japan and Canada are pushing their counterparts for more..
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