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  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall

    by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2020 22:15
    Oil Shrugs Off OPEC, USD Hardens Fall Chart OPEC didn't deliver what markets were expecting on Thursday but crude....Sterling was the top performer on Brexit optimism while the US dollar lagged...Non-farm payrolls are due up next...If you are a member of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group and not received any....We await to hear from WhatsApp regarding the problem...Thursday was all about deal-making with OPEC, Brexit and US stimulus all in play...The market continues to lean towards a Brexit deal but hopes are now pinned on....US stimulus talks continue to move in a positive direction but we're not at....It was OPEC+ that made its move on Thursday and it wasn't the 3 month....Instead, OPEC opted for a plan to raise production 500k bpd each month starting....We would have expected some crude selling on that but after a small blip,....50...Brent also finished more than 1% higher...The adage that applies here is: When a market can't fall on bad news, it....Holding well-above the recent range in crude through the OPEC news is a good....OPEC still has 7...2mbpd of spare capacity so that will certainly keep oil from running higher....That was reflected in the Canadian dollar Thursday as USD/CAD fell to the....The break of 1...30 clears out a key support level and highlights the case for a further....The EUR/USD breakout resumed on Thursday as it climbed above 1...21 and it was joined by the Australian dollar in a climb above the September....7411 to the best levels since 2018...The dollar is behaving like a classic bear market, as intermittent....The trigger on Wednesday was more positive talk on US stimulus...It's tough to know if differences can be bridged but Democratic leaders....In the shorter-term though, the trade will evolve around Friday's US and....Non-farm payrolls estimates have come down and sit at 478K...Homebase hiring numbers point to the risk of a downside surprise but markets....On the flipside, a positive surprise may be welcomed, leaving a positive skew.

  • Intraday Market Thought: How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2021 20:00
    How we shorted Indices كيف بعنا المؤشرات Chart Here is a recap of what and how we approached shorting the DOW, SPX and DAX....We started abour 45 mins before Wednesday's FOMC announcement....Please see the details of the last 3 days...nbsp; تفضلوا بملخص محتوى صفقاتنا لبيع مؤشر الداو و الداكس من يوم الاربعاء....من القروب العرب..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold's Anniversary & Flash Crash

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 9, 2021 14:54
    Nearly 365 days after hitting its $2075 high, gold gets a double punch by strong....Thin liquidity conditions, exaggerated by light summertime staff played a big....The fact that bond yields and USD were relatively muted, highlights the....But Friday's stellar US jobs report will likely trigger fresh selling bouts....900K NFP combined with larger than expected fall in the unemployment (from....9% to 5...4%), over 119K in upward revisions and 0...4% in average hourly earnings m/m, raise chances that Fed tapering of asset....Rather than persistent selling at the lows, gold will likely see offers....We saw such activity exactly this same time last year, days after gold hit its....The question then becomes whether we will see a break below 1600, similar to....nbsp; The answer to that question is found in the video from 14:30..

  • Hot-Chart: Upcoming Breakout in Gold Longs?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 8, 2021 17:05
    Upcoming Breakout in Gold Longs? Chart We know that Gold's commitment reports from the Comex is for the....The last data point in the yellow graph is for the week ending last Tues (Nov....Since we know what happened to gold over the last 6 days, the next data point....For more background, see a recent video about net Comex commitments.

  • Intraday Market Thought: It's not too late to use the tool

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2021 23:32
    It's not too late to use the tool Chart It's not too late to learn how to implement the VVIX/VIX ratio in helping....e...shifts in risk appetite...No, the ratio is NOT standalone tool...Instead, it can be valuable and helpful in enabling you to anticipate lows....We use the late September 2021 example for identifying bottoms (7:02 mins of....I also show you how to use the ratio and where to obtain free...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 9, 2021 18:49
    Nasdaq Hits it, VVIX/VIX Called it Chart On Wednesday we went short the Nasdaq100 for the WhatsApp Broadcast Group near....Those whose stop was not hit, saw the index fall as low as 16230 and now is....We used the VVIX/VIX ratio as an added basis for shorting the Nasdaq (not the....nbsp; Again, entering a trade (or any other trade) is all about confidence i...e having as sufficient technical reasons (such as patterns, moving averages,....In the case of the VVIX/VIX, the possible double top (see chart....See the latest video on how to use the VVIX/VIX ratio and where to get and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bond Market Calling Fed

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2022 0:48
    Bond Market Calling Fed Chart Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that....Bonds have often foretold shifts by the Fed--policy reversals, or hard stops in....The US yield curve started flattening 12 mths after the end of the 2020....The 10-2 curve never began flattening so soon and so deep after the end of a....This only highlights the unsustainable and elusory nature of the past 24 mths....A prolonged drop in yields next week could accompany a catch-down by the S&....Falling yields could be brought about by a sudden turn to the worse on the....More realistically, it could result from Fed Chair Powell sounding unfazed by....Think about it...Bitcoin meanwhile, could well retest the $30K support but the recovery should....Finally, gold and silver continue to do everything "right" so far...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Back to the GoldBugs Ratio

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2022 22:38
    Back to the GoldBugs Ratio Chart As you debate whether to take funds from your underperforming altcoins and place....So you freeze...What to do? Do you finally realize that 60% portfolio loss in your tech stocks....How can it help you?....As gold rises along gold stocks (metals and miners), the latter tends to rise....I've shown in past youtube video how to use the relationship ....With the goldbugs ratio in the lower panel suggesting further declines....0 trendline support, it could argue for $2000 as early as this quarter...And it so appears that we're well on our way of getting ride of that 2013/14....Let's see what Biden/Powell have to say before buying any gold dips...nbsp;....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Never via a Bear Steepener

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 20, 2023 20:39
    Why do I post photos with animals late on Friday when the market is hurting and....All 5 emerged by way of bull steepening...The chart below shows US 10-yr yields are still below 2-year yields (inverted....There are two ways in which yield curve steepens (or normalises): Narrowing the....The case today is way more dangerous for the economy and the markets...I will discuss all this in more detail at tomorrow's London Trader Show&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Central Bank Extravaganza

    by Adam Button | Jan 21, 2015 0:29
    Traders may have been looking for some paring of US dollar positions into a big....The pound kept pace with the dollar at the top of the FX leaderboard while the....We look at what's expected in a big day for central banks...nbsp;In addition to our Premium trades in CADJPY, NZDCAD and AUDJPY, We opened....nbsp;....The first central bank decision is Japan...There's no set time for the BOJ but it's generally between 0230 GMT and....A tip-off toward any surprise generally comes with a later release...We've heard some chatter about more easing but nothing from the BOJ....Instead, Kuroda will likely lower the inflation outlook to 1...3% from 1...7% for FY2015 but blame oil and leave 2016 unchanged at 2...1%....A one-year extension in the bank lending facility and measures to strengthen the....In Europe, ECB expectations have grown so substantial and concrete that it....However, if the amount of buying is left ambiguous or open-ended, it's a....In Canada, USD/CAD rose to a fresh 5-year high above 1...21 with the BOC decision looming...Another nearly 5% drop in oil along with a soft manufacturing sales report (-1...4% vs -0...7% exp with downward revisions) were catalysts for the move but positioning....nbsp;The BOC is likely to follow the IMF's lead in revising down Canadian....Last week Lane hinted the return to full capacity in the economy could be....If so, the upside in USD/CAD continues to look attractive.
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