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Results: 951 to 960 of 1,000
Results: 951 to 960 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Banking in a Black Hole
by Adam Button | Aug 25, 2016 23:18
At some point on Friday, the 'Summer Doldrums' will come to an end as....The waiting game was in fashion Thursday as markets traded in tight ranges and....Japanese CPI is due up ahead of Jackson Hole...There are 9 Premium trades currently in progress, 2 metals, 2 indices and 5 in....In the small picture, the market moves will centre around signals from Yellen....The market is pricing in a 32% chance of a move in Sept and 57% chance in....That looks high to us but the durable goods report on Thursday added some....In it, the key non-defense ex-air orders metric rose 1...6% compared to the 0...2% consensus...In the big picture, the noose is tightening around the Fed...On Wednesday it was former Fed governor Warsh ripping into the Fed for a lack of....Thursday it was Hilsenrath shedding light on the failures of the Fed and....The criticism is seeming coming from all corners and Yellen is surely feeling....It's not necessarily hawkish pressure either but frustration at the....That's the kind of thing that would make a Fed leader shy about sending....It's also likely to make the Fed deathly afraid of making a misstep...So while Yellen's words at Jackson Hole will be important, we're....A fearful Fed is one that will freeze...At the same time, we are keenly watching the mounting criticism and how it....That doesn't have any near term consequences but it has the power to....Ultimately, that probably means more dovish policies...Nowhere is that clearer than Japan where increasingly hopeless programs are....At 2330 GMT we get another look at the results with the July CPI report...The consensus estimate is that prices fell 0...4% y/y.
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Intraday Market Thought: Growth & Politics: Inseparable?
by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2017 23:54
The line in time between hope becoming reality is a blurry one but it's....The Australian dollar was the top performer in the first real trading day....Chinese sentiment data is due later as we continue to keep a close eye on....The big market moves since the US election are undoubtedly based on some....At some point, that hope will need to be replaced by actions and results...Early returns are good...Economic data has been strong and that continued Tuesday with US Nov....9% compared to the +0...5% consensus...The ISM manufacturing index also rose to 54...7 compared to 53...6 expected in another sign of a pickup...Hope itself can be self-sustaining to a point...It encourages optimism, confidence and risk taking; three things that are the....One of the quickest ways to undo that progress is political change doesn&....That could be because Congress and the White House isn't as united as they....Bets on a dysfunctional US political system for the past 10 years have been....Today was the first day of the new Congress and the first priority in the....That's a bizarre priority and the backlash went all the way to the top as....The changes were scrapped...In a sense, that's heartening but it's also a sign that Trump and....A big risk in the next four years is that the Republican party isn't as....Or maybe – as is usually the case – the shock that hits markets....That's why we're watching China so closely...The 50 year bond was halted limit down briefly yesterday and, as Ashraf....Up next we will watch the Westpac consumer sentiment data for China at....The prior reading was 114...9.
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Intraday Market Thought: The Pre-Brexit Sag
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 7, 2017 23:51
Cable is down in 7 of the past 8 days as we count down to the Brexit trigger...AUD was the top performer on Tuesday while NZD lagged...Japanese trade and GDP data is due later, followed by Chinese trade balance...nbsp;The Gold Premium trade has finally been filled, joining silver and four....إلى أين ارتداد الدولار؟....فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....The pound has fallen more than 300 pips in the past week as the market stares....Parliament and the House of Lords are bickering over some of the final details....That's what's keeping pound buyers sidelined but like the Yellen....The last thing pound bulls want to see is disorganization in the government but....In economic news Tuesday, the US trade balance met expectations at a deficit of....5B in January...Trading was calm despite some volatility in commodities...The five-day drop in gold since the start of March has caught our attention....Oil tried the upside again but was beaten back after a +11 million barrel....The IEA also downwardly revised its demand forecast and Saudi Arabia said it....The focus will shift back to Asia now and China's National People's....A PBOC official there said one goal is for China to steadily grow and promote....We will get some insight into trade at approximately 0200 GMT when trade....Exports are expected up 12...3% y/y and imports up 20...0%....The other numbers we will be watching are from Japan where the final Q4 GDP....5% q/q annualized, up from 1...0%....That will be released alongside January trade balance and current account....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Crowded in the Hawk’s Nest
by Adam Button | Jun 29, 2017 11:23
Carney and Poloz dropped fresh hawkish hints to spark big moves on Wednesday....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...US jobless claims are next and their latest 4-week moving average is at 245K,....nbsp; The Premium GBPUSD long was closed for 205 pips, more importantly what'....الدولارواقتراب السياسات النقدية (للمشتركين فقط)....Central banks are on the march...On Tuesday Draghi sent the euro soaring more than 150 pips, then it was Carney....In a presentation, Carney said continue to send confusing signals...In last week's Mansion House speech he dampened hike talk but he rekindled....A bunch of conditions and qualifiers were attached but the market only....2972 before it got jittery ahead of the big figure and peeled back to 1...2925...At the same time, the ECB was trying unwind euro gains after yesterday's....He said some factors restraining inflation were likely temporary and that....Those gains were continuing Wednesday until two separate reports citing ECB....That sent the euro 75 pips lower in a flash but in a clear sign that sentient....1190 support held comfortably...On net, the ECB and BOE signals were subtle and may speak more to the market&....That's not the case with CAD...The market was dead wrong on the Canadian dollar and Poloz...A more than 60% chance of a July hike is now priced in and the BOC isn't....Poloz spoke to CNBC Europe and said lower interest rates “have done....That was in the context of the market already pricing in a high chance of a....You have to assume that Poloz knew the odds going in and would have dialed back....USD/CAD certainly noticed and tumbled to the lowest since February...It was helped along by another 1...5% gain in oil...In total, central banks are certainly feeling better about growth despite..
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Intraday Market Thought: What Happened to the Dollar
by Adam Button | Jul 27, 2017 8:55
The FOMC statement didn't offer much on Wednesday but it was enough to send&....Several major levels broke as the dollar plunged in the aftermath...We look at what's ahead...The USDX charts below are an update from our May 19th analog USDX chart...The US dollar moves in the aftermath of the FOMC statement look like the kind of....Tweaks to the statement included saying inflation was 'below' target....With regards to the inflation tweek, it remains to be seen whether the change....nbsp;....What's more important is what it didn't say...There were none of the hawkish or optimistic notes that many market....In a binary sense, this decision was either going to be neutral or more....It didn't come and the dollar fell by more than a cent...The move got a second wind on technicals as key levels broke...EUR/USD took out its August 2015 high of 1...1714, opening up a foray into the 2014/2015 the 1...20-1...27 zone...The 1...2461 low in USD/CAD gave way and the pair touched a two-year low...AUD/USD also hit a fresh cycle high and cable is just a few pips away from doing....The CFTC positioning data has repeatedly shown a bias to dollar longs but we'....Looking ahead, data comes back into focus...On Thursday, the volatile US durable goods orders are due, followed by Friday&....The Fed may have been given an early look at GDP and that could explain the....Beyond that the major numbers will be inflation, but July CPI isn't due....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: A Win for Soft Data?
by Adam Button | Aug 24, 2017 12:13
As we head closer to US jobless claims today and the Jackson Hole speeches....Yesterday's release of the US Markit service sector index rose to its best....The 9% decline in US new home sales was partly due inventories...NZD was the biggest loser over the last 24 hours...The Premium long in EURNZD was closed at 1...6350 for a 240-pip gain as the pair hit a 14-month high...The main US dollar trade remains politics...As soon as it looked like Candidate Trump was fading away, he reappeared at....That was the main driver in markets and led to a round of USD selling that....We see no end to the drama in US politics but some stability in the White....Another is a pickup in growth...The Markit services PMI hit an 18-month high at 56...9 compared to 55...0 expected and 54...7 previously...We have long lamented the divergence in hard and soft economic data in the past....The post-election bump in surveys just hasn't translated into genuine....But the Markit number is an outlier...It hardly climbed after the election then slid early in the year...More recently gained steadily before surging in the August data...There is no reason to believe Markit's data is superior but they were able....Maybe it's a sign that pent up demand, credit and a softer currency are....In addition, the 'prices charged' component rose to the highest since....The big move outside of the dollar was in the kiwi as it slumped on soft pre-....NZD/JPY broke down in a potentially-ominous sign for risk assets...EUR/NZD and NZDCAD were also notable movers...Fed chair Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow is at 10 am ET (3 pm....The same goes for Draghi, who is due to speak 5 hours later.
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Intraday Market Thought: Tax Reform Shadows Elections
by Adam Button | Sep 25, 2017 10:56
Angela Merkel wins her fourth term as chancellor but with the lowest victory....The euro gapped lower, now testing 1...1850 as it awaits Draghi's speech at 2 pm London time...NZD remains the weakest currency since the start of Monday Asian trade after....CFTC positioning data showed a race away from cable shorts...Japan PM Abe will dissolve the lower house of parliament to call early snap....22, 14 months ahead of schedule...But the week's bigger market driver in FX could be US Congress decision on....The other story we are watching closely is US tax reform...Weekend leaks suggest the Republican proposal to be released this week....6%....The US tax code is so littered with loopholes that the fall isn't as....More than the details, we will be watching for the reaction from Congress....We will also watch to see if cuts – especially to individuals – are....That could mean a quick stimulus...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +62K vs +86K prior...GBP -10K vs -46K prior...JPY -51K vs -57K prior...CHF -1...5K vs -2K prior...CAD +59K vs +50K prior...AUD +72K vs +63K prior...NZD +7K vs +12K prior....It's the second week in a row of fewer longs in EUR and far fewer shorts....The race out of sterling shorts came after the Bank of England decision and....The more-balanced market suggests the potential for quick gains from here is....AUD longs are beginning to get crowded but not yet dangerously so.
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Intraday Market Thought: Yellen Leaves ‘Em Guessing
by Adam Button | Sep 26, 2017 22:59
When the newswires can't decide if a speech is hawkish, or dovish then it&....Differing Yellen interpretations caused a whipsaw in markets Tuesday as the....Japanese business confidence and Chinese industrial profits data is due up next...The latest Premium video assesses our the existing trades ahead of this week&....Yellen's speech dove deep into monetary but failed to change the maths....Her comments were initially reported by Reuters with headlines that tilted....A couple minutes later, Bloomberg's main take was Yellen's warning that....Initially the US dollar fell but it then jumped on the second set of headlines,....1757...Ultimately, the market decided she'd given enough of a hint or commitment to....In the bigger picture, Tuesday was larger a mirror image of Monday...The risk-off trade spurred by worried about North Korea slowly evaporated...Gold fell $16 to erase a $16 gain the day before...One exception was EUR/USD as it fell for the second day and touched the lowest....The fall broke the neckline of a minor head-and-shoulders top as worries about....In the days ahead, that pair is likely to spot to watch, especially with....Looking ahead to Asia-Pacific trading, the calendar is generally benign...At 0130 GMT, Chinese industrial profits are due...They're coming off a whopping 16...5% y/y gain in July...At 0500 GMT, we will get Japanese small business confidence data, which is....5...Neither is likely to move markets...One spot to keep an eye on is a Republican primary in Alabama for Senate...The anti-establishment candidate looks poised to knock off an incumbent, who..
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Intraday Market Thought: Will Turkish Lira Fall Spread Further?
by Adam Button | Aug 13, 2018 15:28
An emerging market economic crisis is nothing new but Turkey is the world'....The lira fell another 11% in early trading Monday to 7...15...CFTC positioning data showed more money going into US dollar longs...USDJPY held support at the confluence of the 55-DAY and WEEK moving average,....The yen remains the strongest of the week and the month ahead of the US....Macro data return this week with UK jobs (Tues), CPI (Wed), US retail sales (Wed)....Crisis and collapse are words that are too-often used in financial markets and....The Turkish lira is down 50% this year and fell by as much as 16% on Friday....The country's large current account deficit (over 5% of GDP) and the....It's a situation that has many historical parallels and often leads to....Erdogan on the weekend continued to plea with people not to take money out of....He also hinted at Plan B and Plan C, which sounded like a mixture between....The problem with a hint like that is that it ensures a stampede to the exits....An implosion of the Turkish economy alone may not pose a risk to the global....With GDP of about $850B, it sits between the Netherlands and Indonesia in the....That compares to $360B for Greece at its peak...Like Greece, the issues isn't the local economy, it's contagion...Emerging markets with some similar strains to Turkey are also under major....Currencies in Argentina, Russia, South Africa and Brazil fell 3-6% last week....This is all leading to bids in the traditional safe haven currencies –....The most-obvious vector for contagion is via the financial system and European....The yen is higher across the board in early trading...IMF or Currency Controls?....In our experience, these are some of the most unpredictable events...Yet, considering the looming threat of capital controls, it's not likely to....The latter would imply a bailout of as much as $40 bn but would necessitate....The 10 Lira mark is considered a possible destination in the event of a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +11K vs +23K prior...GBP -59K vs -47K prior...JPY -63K vs -68K prior...CHF -46K vs -44K prior...CAD -25K vs -32K prior...AUD -54K vs -51K prior...NZD -25K vs -24K prior....Dollar bets generally increased but they were pared against the Canadian dollar....What was left of euro longs was probably busted out late last week in the fall....15 and yen shorts are now vulnerable.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Eases on Trump Comments
by Adam Button | Aug 20, 2018 19:28
The US dollar was broadly lower on a slow Monday session following Trump....The comments were made at a fund-raiser for wealthy Republican donors at the....There were no specific USD comments but the greenabck dropped off on the....CFTC positioning showed a net euro short for the first time in 15 months...The Premium short in USDJPY was closed at 110...00 for 120 pt gain as the remarkable divergence between USDJPY and USDX....The chart below indicates that the USD/CNH has fallen below the USD/CNY for the....This may indicate that the PBOC is more successful at swaying speculating....More on this in tomorrow's Premium video...The first steps toward ending the China-US trade fight boosted risk assets on....The week ahead ends with the Jackson Hole symposium in what's....On Tuesday and Wednesday a delegation led by Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce....S...representatives led by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs....On Friday, the WSJ reported that this is part of a roadmap towards a November....That sparked speculation that a true trade war can be avoided...Other reports suggested that the US is currently focused on the yuan but a rise....Or it could be nothing...The market is clinging to some dim signs of hope here when all actions point to....On August 1, Trump announced hearings on tariffs of 25% on more than $200....Hearings and consultations on those tariffs start Monday and continue until....That's the key day on the calendar and could mark a watershed moment in....If this week's summit ends badly, markets may jump to conclusions about....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -2K vs +11K prior...GBP -61K vs -59K prior...JPY -58K vs -63K prior...CHF -46K vs -46K prior...CAD -26K vs -25K prior...AUD -51K vs -54K prior...NZD -27K vs -25K prior....The euro has dropped to 1...14 from 1...26 in the past 5 months in a painful move for euro longs...They packed it in last week and are now net short for the first time since May....Other moves were relatively minor.
