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Results: 971 to 980 of 1,000
Results: 971 to 980 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Yellen, Gold and Aussie Jobs
by Adam Button | May 7, 2014 23:43Day 1 of Yellen's testimony failed to provide any fireworks but the market....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while NZD lagged...The focus now shifts to the Australian jobs report...nbsp;In today's Premium Insights, we issued a trade on GBPUSD w/ 2 charts....Our AUDUSD and AUDNZD trades are also in progress ahead of tonight's Aussie....For the other Premium trades, they can be found the Premium Insights...Yellen followed up the optimistic FOMC statement by noting a pickup in the....There was nothing in her testimony to suggest a rush to raise rates and the....US 10-year yields continue to flirt with the 2014 lows and that 2...568% level is probably the most important support line in all of markets....The low today was 2...575%....One spot of positive news on inflation was the Q1 US labor cost report showing....2% compared to 2...6% expected...Unfortunately the rise came on falling productivity...Together it points to a weather-related skew but it's something to watch in....We wrote yesterday about the inability of gold to rally when the dollar was....That proved to be a signal as gold fell $18 Wednesday on very light USD....The 100-day moving average at $1285 caught the latest move and that's a....Up next is the Australian jobs report at 0130 GMT...Unemployment is expected at 5...9% from 5...8% with 8...8K jobs created...The full-time/part-time breakdown is always an important component of the....nbsp;....The other highlight of the session is Chinese trade balance at 0200 GMT...The surplus/deficit is less important than rises in imports and exports, which....0% and 2...1% respectively. -
Intraday Market Thought: Is Canada in Recession Already?
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2015 22:53The Greek drama continues but we change gears today and take a closer look at....We also look at the quarter and Japanese Tankan report due later...On Tuesday, the Aussie was the top performer while its kiwi cousin lagged...nbsp; A new EUR trade was added to the Premium Insights, with 3 charts....Our long AUDNZD from 1...1100 is 280 pips in the green and nears its final target...The market moving news on Tuesday was Canadian GDP...It's April data so it's a bit stale but that didn't stop a more....Growth contracted 0...1% compared to +0...1% expected...That left year-over-year growth at 1...2% compared to 1...5% expected...USD/CAD was trading at 1...2360 and finished the day at 1...2485, despite a 1% rally in oil prices...The pair closed at the highest since June 3...The move may be overdone given the lag in the data, quarter-end and other flows....The Canadian economy contracted at a 0...6% annualized pace in Q1 and contracting growth in the first month of Q2 raises....The OIS market went form pricing a 25% chance of a cut by year-end to a 60%....BOC Gov Poloz's defining characteristic in the past few months....There isn't enough evidence yet but if Canadian numbers continue to....Looking at Q2, the pound was the top G10 currency after election nerves were....The kiwi was the worst performer on the heels of a surprise rate cut...In stock markets, China was tops but the volatility has been extraordinary...The average trading range so far this week is 11%....Another market that performed well was Japan...That was partially on a weak currency but the economy has also been solid...Today features a critical look at what's next with the Q2 Tankan at 2350 GMT...The large manufacturing index is expected steady at 12 with the outlook....nbsp; Another spot to watch is the All Large Industry CAPEX metric; it's....3% in a critical sign of investment from Japanese companies. -
Intraday Market Thought: Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production all miss
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 15, 2015 18:39
A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-....The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain....3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial....4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months—the worst....On the bright side, core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and building....In the Fed's Empire survey, the employment component turned negative to....2 from 1...8, as did the average workweek plunging 10...3 from -1...8...US industrial production was battered by the usual strong US dollar story and....Manufacturing dropped 0...5%, mining fell 0...6% and utilities were up 0...6%....Bearish Argument....The bearish side may argue against the robust retail sales by indicating the....The argument becomes especially potent following Friday's release of the....Thus, the release of US September retail sales, due in mid-October (2 weeks....Bullish Argument....A more optimistic interpretation of the figures could point to the fact that the....Not only manufacturing accounts for shrinking part of the overall US economy,....nbsp;....This leaves us with tomorrow's release of US August CPI for and....Fed watchers are already hedging themselves in their prediction for the....While we lean towards expecting no change this week, markets have already....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Why China is Snookered for the Moment
by Adam Button | Jan 4, 2016 23:05
A round of risk aversion that started in China went global in a dismal start to....The yen led the way and commodity currencies lagged in a classic flight to....BoJ governor Kuroda speaks later but the focus is on Chinese stock markets...After closing the Premium Insight's GBPJPY short at a 395-pip gain, a new....There isn't a simple explanation for the Monday's 7% plunge in Shanghai....Yuan weakness and the softer Caixin PMI were widely cited but the expiration of....On July 8, Chinese securities regulators banned senior management from selling....That's set to expire on January 8 and the selling now may be in....That could mean more selling to come and the PBOC may not be able to fight it...On Dec 30 the PBOC's chief economist wrote that policymakers should improve....He said officials needed to do a better job of keeping financial stability in....That may mean the PBOC will want to signal a move before acting...Now the PBOC will look like it's reacting to markets if it cuts...That was the case in August and it was interpreted as a sign that the economy....The PBOC wouldn't want to be blamed for a second rout so they may play it....While China grabbed the main headlines, there were some critical developments in....German HICP in December was 0...2% y/y compared to +0...4% expected...That knocked the euro to the lowest since the ECB...In the US, construction spending was far weaker than expected and the ISM....Markets finished 2015 in a complacent mood about the economy but they may have....In the short term, the swings in China may come quickly...ETFs suggest more Chinese stock selling early but it will be a minute-to-minute....Expect USD/CNY to be fixed around 6...60/63 from 6...50 at 0115 GMT...It's a large move and the market still poorly grasps the mechanics of the....The other event on the calendar is Kuroda at 0710 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: China's Yuan Holds Markets Hostage
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 8, 2016 20:25
Whether this week's violent moves in global equities are the main reason....The US jobs report did show a disappointing 2...5% y/y in average earnings –a reflection of lasting slack in the pool....Some economists claim that a recovery in average hourly earnings is just a....They may be disregarding the quality of these jobs (retail, hospitality and....You want a free currency? Careful....This week, every trader learned a new reality in intermarket dynamics: The....The process has been especially striking as Chinese markets shut for the 2nd day....The West had long demanded China to free its currency from artificial weakness,....The yuan's SDR era is coinciding with broadening weakness in the world&....Last month's decline of more than $100bn in China's FX reserves is a....Beijing is really trying, but free markets is also synonymous to further....More interest rate cuts in China are inevitable, and additional CNY weakness....The Fed could always flex its muscle and deliver a cosmetic hike in the Fed....25%, which is meaningless for monetary policy as long as not a single cent of....4 trillion in bonds is sold...So think twice before you go on about policy divergence...There are currently 6 Premium trades in progress (5 in the green 1 in the red)....This week, we closed GBPJPY and DAX shorts for a cumulative total of 1,005..
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bankers vs Markets
by Adam Button | Jan 21, 2016 0:14
Central bankers continue to sound an 'all clear' signal while markets....The yen climbed once again Wednesday and the S&P 500 touched the lowest....There are 4 Premium Trades currently in progress and an additional one will be....The chart below highlights the general picture for the S&P500 following....Ashraf will post the technical implications of the charts'....A full-on panic hit markets once again on Thursday and the S&P 500 broke....At the lows, the S&P 500 was down 69 points but it recovered alongside oil....The US CPI report was slightly below estimates at -0...1% m/m compared to a flat reading expected but the core reading matched....1% consensus...Unruffled BoC....The main focus of the day was the Bank of Canada decision...The market was evenly divided on what might come with many believing falling....Poloz thought differently and he wasn't dovish either...The result was a quick spike higher in the Canadian dollar...As oil and stock markets plunged, however, the move retraced but later....The close lower in USD/CAD ended a 13 day streak of gains...What's striking is how Poloz's reading on the economy differs....He remains optimistic on non-resource exports and the US economy...He's not alone...Other central bankers appear to be seeing a fear different world than....If markets are right, many central bankers will suffer (more) hits to their....The Fed is in a particularly tough position and the US dollar also has the....At the moment, the Fed is in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC...ECB is next....Up next is the ECB...A report from MNI Wednesday said there would be no serious discussion of new....The question is: Will Draghi also ignore the signals from markets and signal....There is a good chance he will and that may help the euro in the short term...But if markets continue to wilt, how long can that optimism last?..
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Intraday Market Thought: Implicit BoJ Depreciation Means more Explicit PBOC Devaluation
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2016 9:18
The BoJ's decision to cut the interest rate on current account....10% highlights the beginning of the end of Japan's asset purchase program....The fact that the BoJ voted 5-4 in favour of negative rates and 8-1 to keep....At the current pace of asset purchases (which include Japanese Government Bonds....It won't happen...But where will it find the extra bonds when current holders of JGBs (insurance....Insurers need JGBs for asset-liability balancing, while pension funds such as....Slashing rates to negative is aimed at encouraging banks to lend, rather than....If the BoJ means what it says and deepens the path to negative rates, it....Market-Friendly Yen Devaluation means more Unfriendly Yuan Devaluation....The yen's violent ascent of the past 5 weeks was instrumental in the BoJ'....The BoJ said it is ready to slash rates further, a decision, which reflects....As Japan continues to devalue its currency via negative interest rates,....The negative market implications from further CNY devaluation versus the....China will have no choice but to further devalue its currency as CNYJPY rose 75%....nbsp; Further devaluation is inevitable and its impact on global markets will be....A new JPY trade has been issued in our Premium Insights, with supporting charts..
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Intraday Market Thought: Déjà Vu All Over Again
by Adam Button | Feb 2, 2016 23:49
It was Groundhog Day on Tuesday and the Bill Murray movie of the same name was a....The yen led the way as oil, stock markets and commodity currencies dropped...However the New Zealand dollar rebounded on a blockbuster employment report in....Yesterday's Premium trade in gold was supported with technical charts....A new JPY trade was added today...فيديو العربي...59...دقيقة كاملة على البورصات، الذهب، العملات و النفط...nbsp;....The Fed didn't do the market any favours today as George continued to....US data on car sales were a healthy sign for the consumer but those small....More energy market problems resurfaced by a second day of heavy downgrades and....The ratings agency cut Chevron and put the major US producers on credit watch....More importantly, that same credit stress is hitting smaller indebted oil....It's also hitting oil-exporting sovereigns and there is persistent talk....At the moment, the resilience in CAD remains impressive...Oil has fallen $5 from last week's highs and yen USD/CAD is just 150 pips....What offers hope to the USD/CAD bears is something of a pattern developing in....In January, Poloz was upbeat on the non-commodity sector...Yesterday, Stevens was similarly positive on the outlook for the domestic....Today, New Zealand announced a shocking drop in unemployment to 5...3% from 6...1% in Q4...There is no doubt that parts of Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be hard....That may be a factor of the exchange rate, economic flexibility or built-up....Or it might just be a matter of time before they crack...The next data on the agenda is Australian trade balance at 0030 GMT...It's expected at a deficit of 2...45m million but we will closely watch the breakdown of imports and exports...If exports rise, it could be a sign that a weak AUD is helping...At 0145 GMT, the Caixin China services PMI is due for release...The prior reading was 50...2...It's not likely to be a big market mover...Fifteen minutes later, the Japan PMI for services is out...The prior reading was 51...5.
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Intraday Market Thought: What Markets Say is more Important than what Fed Says
by Adam Button | Jan 28, 2016 0:37
The Fed offered several dovish hints in the FOMC statement revealed Wednesday....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...The NZD softness came after the RBNZ hinted at more cuts...A new Premium trade has been issued after the Fed statemeny, ahead of....The Fed delivered a dovish FOMC statement...Realistically, it was the biggest nod they could give markets without....The Fed was incorrect to hike rates in December but this is a signal that they....Omissions & Edits....The Fed removed a line about growth expanding at a 'moderate pace'....More important was what they left out...The line on risks being balanced was removed and a reference to being '....That final point is particularly telling because getting to a 'reasonably....Removing it was a clear indication the Fed doesn't plan to hike in March...What's more telling today was how markets reacted...We often say that how markets react to news is more important than the news....This was good news and markets still didn't like it...Analysts often like to fit the news to the market moves and some are even....It wasn't...nbsp; This should have been good news for risk trades...Instead they faltered and that argues for more trouble ahead...It may only be a late day blip and real money could spark a reversal tomorrow....The other divergence we continue to monitor is oil...Crude rose 2...3% Wednesday and yet stocks declined more than 1%....For the past month, the positive correlation has been very tight and we....The other central bank in the headlines was the RBNZ as rates were held....50%, as expected following the December cut...RBNZ's Wheeler also underscored global markets and economies as areas....nbsp; The statement added the line that 'further policy easing may be....The focus now shifts to Japan and retail sales...The recent trade data underscored that FX weakness has not been the cure-all....That's a lesson Japanese officials may be learning as they allow the yen to....The health of the consumer is today's concern with December retail sales due....The consensus is for a 1...0% m/m gain...nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Recovers Ahead of NFP, Tankan Next
by Adam Button | Mar 31, 2016 22:40
The US dollar was battered in European trading but finally found some support....nbsp; The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The critical Q1 Tankan survey is due up next nefore China's PMIs...After closing the Premium EURUSD long with 188 pip gain, a special note on why....The chart below describes this statistical anomaly with full details/....nbsp;....The first quarter wrapped up with choppy reversals in US trading as the Dollar....Economic data was mixed...Initial jobless claims deteriorated to 276K from 265K and that sent a mild....It was balanced out by the Chicago PMI, which improved to 53...6 from 47...6 and beat the 50...7 consensus estimate...The US dollar bottomed for the day shortly after the Chicago PMI...EUR/USD had risen above 1...14, taking out the Feb high of 1...1376 but then retreating to close at 1...1378...The lack of follow through higher ahead of NFP isn't a big surprise...The market will want to wait-and-see the number – and especially the wages....The Canadian dollar was whipsawed...USD/CAD dropped to 1...2855 after Canada's Jan GDP report showed 0...6% growth compared to 0...3% expected...The move later reversed and more to finish at 1...3000, in part because the report is dated and in part because oil prices....Quarter-end no doubt played a factor as well...Early in Asia-Pacific trading the Fed's Dudley said the US economy was in a....Those two statements offer something for everyone but moved the market little...The major report to start the quarter in Japan is the Q1 Tankan at 2350 GMT...The large manufacturing index is expected at +8 from +12 in Q4...All industry capex is forecast to fall 0...7% while the small manufacturing index is expected at -2...The deteriorating numbers ratchet up the pressure on the government and BOJ to....The other main event to watch is the China manufacturing PMI at 0100 GMT...The consensus call is a small improvement to 49...4 from 49...0 but that could have an outsized impact on markets is China breathes a sigh of....Watch the Caixin PMI 45 minutes later to confirm the result...It's forecast at 48...3 from 48...0...Q1 performance...JPY +6...8%....EUR +4...8%....CAD +6...4%....GBP -2...5%....Gold +16...2%....S&P 500 +0...77%....UK FTSE -1...1%....German DAX -7...2%....Nikkei 225 -11...9%....Shanghai Comp -15...1%....nbsp; ..
