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Results: 971 to 980 of 1,000
Results: 971 to 980 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Time for the Pre-Santa Selloff
by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2019 12:55
Equity indices extend Monday's selloff after pres Trump widened his....AUD is the strongest of the day after the RBA left rates unchanged and headed....GBP hit $1...30, now up 1...9% on the year as the 2nd best performing currency behind CAD, which is....4% vs USD...USDJPY extended its downfall, after failing a major quadruple confluence...more below)....CFTC positioning highlights the large net-negative position in NZD...A 2nd Premium trade has been issued earlier today after 2 key indicators....فيديو المشتركين و التفسير وراء آخر الصفقات...The RBA retained a dovish bias in its statement but took out any urgency in....75%....Two parts of the statement helped to lift the Australian dollar...The first was a nod to falling risks in the global economy due to an improvement....That's a variable factor and could change in a big way by the time of the....The other notable change was the addition to the final paragraph of a nod....That's a hint that policymakers would rather be on the sidelines and may....AUD/USD rose a quarter cent after the decision but the bigger move in FX came....That came after a surprisingly soft ISM manufacturing index at 48...1 compared to 49...2 expected...Another High Profile Failure....Ashraf pointed out to USDJPY's recurring failure at 110...The pair dropped back below its 200-DMA, eyeing 108...40 after another high profile failed attempt to break/reach 110, coinciding....VIX jumps above its 100 and 200 DMAs after posting yesterday its biggest....SPX is at risk of breaking the next crucial support of 3075/76...Here is a chart below that Ashraf posted yesterday after that manuf ISM miss...Trump took to twitter to blame the Fed and a strong dollar but manufacturing....Lately there have been signs of an upturn or at least stabilization but....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -61K vs -63K prior...GBP -37K vs -32K prior...JPY -40K vs -35K prior...CHF -21K vs -16K prior...CAD +20K vs +29K prior...AUD -45K vs -47K prior...NZD -36K vs -35K prior....The data was delayed because of the US holiday and the surprise is the....The turn in the kiwi continued on Monday and even with the round of risk....That should have the shorts sweating.
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Intraday Market Thought: Powell, Lagarde, Elections & Trump
by Adam Button | Dec 12, 2019 12:00
Powell kicked off another round of US dollar weakness ahead of what should be....Risks include the ECB decision, UK election and US-China tariffs (more on....The Australian dollar broke a year-long trendline Wednesday, but keep an eye on....After having closed GBP trades at a gain 2 days ago, a new round of Premium....فيديو المشتركين إدارة مخاطر الإسترليني حول الانتخابات...The most-notable change in the FOMC statement was the addition of a line....To emphasize the point, the Fed removed a dovish nod to 'uncertainties'....But it was a comment from Powell in the press conference that sparked a slump in....He repeated a line we highlighted after the October FOMC – that it would....He emphasized that was his personal opinion and not the FOMC's but for....The initial thinking in October was that it could have been a slip of the tongue....The commodity currencies made the largest moves on the comments in part....Notably, AUD/USD rose above a downtrend that began almost exactly a year ago at....7400 and was previously tested (and held) four times...A break of the 200-dma at 0...6911 and the October high of 0...6933 would confirm the end of the long slide...The first event of the day ahead is the ECB meeting...Changes in policy are almost out of the question but this is Lagarde's first....Most analysts expect her to be a dove, but she may position herself as someone....It could be argued Lagarde will not be in a hurry to ease as the Fed removes....The main event of the day comes late as UK exit polls and election results come....The first exit polls are due at 2200 GMT and moves in the pound will be....Final polls show Conservatives with 5-12 point leads with the median closer to....Whatever the result, expect the trend to have multi-day staying power at the....Finally, there are reports that Trump plans to meet with top advisors....The decision may leak immediately, or he could announce it himself...A delay on the Dec 15 deadline is expected at the very least but nothing....If he announces that the tariffs will go into effect, it will crush risk assets.
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Intraday Market Thought: Soros' Reflexivity gone too far
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 4, 2015 20:21
Evidence of Soros' Theory of Reflexivity remaining prevalent in....Simply put, the euro soared 4% due to misplaced and unfulfilled market....The crowding out of euro-short algos was pivotal in the magnitude of the....But questioning the intensity of euro shorts deserves more time and attention....Question your Expectations, not the Central Bank Decision....Many who were “angry” at the Fed's decision to not raise rates....I will not go into detail about how the ECB gave no reason to expect QE....That was the work of one or two major bank economist's forecasts, who were....My colleague Adam Button and I made it clear in several Intraday Market....Markets went too far with embracing the notion of “policy divergence”....Once corrected by the ECB, the result was massive...At the end of day, anyone who landed on planet euro and saw the spike in the....Not at all...It was all expectations' fault...As George Soros postulated in his version of Reflexivity Theory into....Once the basis of those expectations is altered (ECB's policy actions), the....Friday's Draghi Speech not so different from Thursday's....Some say expectations were fed by the central bankers themselves...Not at all (again)....Today's Draghi speech in NY appears to be the main catalyst behind the 2%....The main reason to the rally is attributed to Draghi's statement....It may not matter that Draghi made a similar statement at yesterday's....e...more measures would/could be implemented if the need arose...One day seems to be too late for traders who lost money, but not too late to....nbsp;....A similar situation occurred on September 24, when Fed chair Yellen made....Markets bottomed three sessions later...Undoubtedly, Draghi's power of words continues to hold sway...But since pulling the QE trigger in March, the timing of the words becomes....This is no longer September 2012, when “we'll do what it takes”....One other Small Detail....One overlooked item from Thursday's press conference, which Draghi did not....This implies that, further measures prior to end of Q1 2016 are highly....Not to forget--the ECB's QE has had positive results, according to ECB....6% lows despite prolonged oil declines, improved growth and rising M3)....Thus, any rise in QE size before April is out of the question...Another 10-bp rate cut could may not be considered before June...nbsp; More evidence that EURUSD parity is far from reality.
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Article: China’s crashing imports assure more CNY depreciation
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 9, 2015 17:09
The 19% y/y slump in China's trade was the biggest decline since May 2009....nbsp; The plunge in imports was the primary driver behind the new record....3%, posting their first decline in 10 months...Disappointing China figures ahead of G20 meetings are far from rare, but the....Cant' blame it on the goat....Chinese data divergences in January and February are usually dismissed as being....nbsp; But this year's New Year holiday (Year of the Goat) isn't....And the recent consistency of the decline in Chinese imports–not....nbsp; Later this month, the HK trade figures will reveal whether China's....Further CNY weakness is inevitable....Further yuan weakness is the only solution for stabilizing the prolonged....It is no longer the case that US lawmakers have the political capital and....The IMF views China's currency to be more appropriately valued, while US....The case for further CNY weakness ahead is not only highlighted by the glaring....The ongoing divergence between the PBOC's USDCNY reference rate and....Most likely the former option will prevail as Beijing adopts the free....Tonight's China CPI & PPI support CNY weakness ahead of G20....Tuesday's release of January inflation figures from China are....1% y/y from December's 1...5% y/y, which would be the lowest level since the 0...6% attained in November 2009...January PPI, already down 3...3% in December, is seen falling 3...3%– the 34th consecutive monthly contraction–longer than anything....The figures will be another signal from Beijing to ease monetary policy via..
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Intraday Market Thought: Third Avenue Blockade, Beijing FX Coup
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 11, 2015 21:25
Another market tumble stands in the way of the Fed's artificial....China's announcement earlier today that it had officially launched a new....Although the announcement did not entail an outright devaluation or an expansion....0% daily trading band, markets have interpreted the changes as an easier....The publication of the new basket removes the yuan from being principally....Either way, China's currency will have to depreciate further-not only due....So far, CNY has fallen by only 7% against JPY over the past five months...More CNY declines lie ahead and Monday's (and Tuesday's) fixing will be....Third Avenue Blockade for High-Yield Seekers....The day's biggest headline emerged from the credit front, as US high-yield....The fund announced that the only way to fulfil investor withdrawals would have....As in 2007-8, skeletons have a way to drop off investment funds closets...If Third Avenue sustained nearly $1 bn of redemptions in the 11 months ending....46 bn in withdrawals from all high-yield funds last week, then what would happen....Whether these junk bond funds are energy-related or not, the situation remains....Our stance of expecting no Fed hike in 2015 may have turned unsustainable as....With the ECB decision and strong NFP report behind us, both the US dollar and....That's NOT what these markets are supposed to look like five days before....Regardless of the Fed's outcome next week, were already looking past the..
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Article: US Jobs Catch up with Reality
by Ashraf Laidi | May 6, 2016 18:36
Not much has changed in USD trading since our March post...Today's neutral-to-negative US jobs report will not do the job to sway the....April payrolls rose by 160K (vs exp 200K), the lowest in 7 months after a 208K....The revisions of the prior 2 months were -19K...The unemployment held at 5%, while the participation rate fell to 62...8% from 63...0%, its first decline in 9 months...The number of people going from being outside the labour force to being....The positives in the report were the 2...5% y/y rise in average hourly earnings y after 2...3% in March and the increase in average weekly hours to 34...5 from 34...4...Other decent signs were the 171K increase in private payrolls vs the 11K....Despite the recent improvement in hourly earnings, the 2...5% y/y rate remains well below the 3...5% levels seen in the pre-crisis highs...That is unlike, the unemployment rate, which is near the pre-crisis lows...The chart above shows how easily-beaten corporate earnings were able to lift the....But the last 2 weeks have seen a normalisation as equities fell back in....Jobs are the last to know....One point worth noting, often repeated in my tweets is that labour markets may....As firms retrench, they usually start with capex reduction (trilling R&D,....Thus, the divergence between weak economic activity and robust employment....Fed's Inflation-Employment Considerations....The big debate inside the Fed remains whether the US economy has reached or is....The problem is that with core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation....6% y/y in March from 1...7%, inflation may return near the Fed's 2...0% target...Other measures of inflation (driven by bond market expectations) have stalled....64% late last month, the highest seen since July 2015...nbsp; Fed members in Yellen's camp have long expressed the importance of....At this point, both factors require further improvement, while foreign risks....The aforementioned inflation/jobs dynamics are most crucial for reading....But let's not also forget the broadening weakness in US macro....5%, the lowest in 2 years...The probability of Fed June hike has now fallen to 2% from 10% prior the reports&....Stocks have peaked nearly 3 weeks ago after a 16% rally driven mostly by stock-....For the trading-oriented market participants, we issued a trade in....Finally, the bottom chart from the American Association of Individual....The bullish-bearish spread never broke above its key resistance lebvel, which..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Traders Turn to UK Court Hearings on Brexit
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2016 6:50
A crucial court case this week will decide whether UK...Prime Minister Theresa May must call a parliamentary vote before triggering....nbsp; The Court decision is not about whether the Parliament will reject....The process starts next March...Last month, the British pound rallied against all currencies after a case....In the next 4 days, the UK government's top legal experts will seek to....The UK govt lawyers will argue that the June Referendum to take Britain out of....The Supreme Court will decide in January...The most important reason PM May wants to avoid the Parliamentary vote is the....nbsp; May is attempting to keep tight control on the divorce proceedings,....May has pledged to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, and is seeking to....UK ministers argue for the executive privilege, which is known in the UK...as royal prerogative – allowing the government to bypass lawmakers in....This will be an important opportunity for Theresa May to demonstrate she is a....European Union versus the Single Market....Some MPs who voted for the UK to remain in the EU in June say that if Parliament....The single market joins the 28-member EU with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein....But PM May has refused to commit to keeping Britain in the single market or....Another reason that PM May oppose a vote in Parliament is the longstanding....If the Supreme Court decides to give Parliament the green light to vote on....How will the Court Hearing Impact the British Pound?....Any indications that the hearings are moving in the direction to maintain last....nbsp; If on the other hand the UK govt lawyers present strong arguments for....nbsp; ....Once again, it is important for readers to understand that the Court ruling is....If the Supreme Court rules that last month's High Court decision is to be....The Supreme Court will make its ruling in January.
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Intraday Market Thought: Yellen, Gold and Aussie Jobs
by Adam Button | May 7, 2014 23:43Day 1 of Yellen's testimony failed to provide any fireworks but the market....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while NZD lagged...The focus now shifts to the Australian jobs report...nbsp;In today's Premium Insights, we issued a trade on GBPUSD w/ 2 charts....Our AUDUSD and AUDNZD trades are also in progress ahead of tonight's Aussie....For the other Premium trades, they can be found the Premium Insights...Yellen followed up the optimistic FOMC statement by noting a pickup in the....There was nothing in her testimony to suggest a rush to raise rates and the....US 10-year yields continue to flirt with the 2014 lows and that 2...568% level is probably the most important support line in all of markets....The low today was 2...575%....One spot of positive news on inflation was the Q1 US labor cost report showing....2% compared to 2...6% expected...Unfortunately the rise came on falling productivity...Together it points to a weather-related skew but it's something to watch in....We wrote yesterday about the inability of gold to rally when the dollar was....That proved to be a signal as gold fell $18 Wednesday on very light USD....The 100-day moving average at $1285 caught the latest move and that's a....Up next is the Australian jobs report at 0130 GMT...Unemployment is expected at 5...9% from 5...8% with 8...8K jobs created...The full-time/part-time breakdown is always an important component of the....nbsp;....The other highlight of the session is Chinese trade balance at 0200 GMT...The surplus/deficit is less important than rises in imports and exports, which....0% and 2...1% respectively. -
Intraday Market Thought: Is Canada in Recession Already?
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2015 22:53The Greek drama continues but we change gears today and take a closer look at....We also look at the quarter and Japanese Tankan report due later...On Tuesday, the Aussie was the top performer while its kiwi cousin lagged...nbsp; A new EUR trade was added to the Premium Insights, with 3 charts....Our long AUDNZD from 1...1100 is 280 pips in the green and nears its final target...The market moving news on Tuesday was Canadian GDP...It's April data so it's a bit stale but that didn't stop a more....Growth contracted 0...1% compared to +0...1% expected...That left year-over-year growth at 1...2% compared to 1...5% expected...USD/CAD was trading at 1...2360 and finished the day at 1...2485, despite a 1% rally in oil prices...The pair closed at the highest since June 3...The move may be overdone given the lag in the data, quarter-end and other flows....The Canadian economy contracted at a 0...6% annualized pace in Q1 and contracting growth in the first month of Q2 raises....The OIS market went form pricing a 25% chance of a cut by year-end to a 60%....BOC Gov Poloz's defining characteristic in the past few months....There isn't enough evidence yet but if Canadian numbers continue to....Looking at Q2, the pound was the top G10 currency after election nerves were....The kiwi was the worst performer on the heels of a surprise rate cut...In stock markets, China was tops but the volatility has been extraordinary...The average trading range so far this week is 11%....Another market that performed well was Japan...That was partially on a weak currency but the economy has also been solid...Today features a critical look at what's next with the Q2 Tankan at 2350 GMT...The large manufacturing index is expected steady at 12 with the outlook....nbsp; Another spot to watch is the All Large Industry CAPEX metric; it's....3% in a critical sign of investment from Japanese companies. -
Intraday Market Thought: Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production all miss
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 15, 2015 18:39
A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-....The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain....3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial....4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months—the worst....On the bright side, core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and building....In the Fed's Empire survey, the employment component turned negative to....2 from 1...8, as did the average workweek plunging 10...3 from -1...8...US industrial production was battered by the usual strong US dollar story and....Manufacturing dropped 0...5%, mining fell 0...6% and utilities were up 0...6%....Bearish Argument....The bearish side may argue against the robust retail sales by indicating the....The argument becomes especially potent following Friday's release of the....Thus, the release of US September retail sales, due in mid-October (2 weeks....Bullish Argument....A more optimistic interpretation of the figures could point to the fact that the....Not only manufacturing accounts for shrinking part of the overall US economy,....nbsp;....This leaves us with tomorrow's release of US August CPI for and....Fed watchers are already hedging themselves in their prediction for the....While we lean towards expecting no change this week, markets have already....nbsp;..
