Posts by "callum"

I am surprised that such a better than expected US data didn't get everyone talking about early interest-rates hikes in the US, and thus, relatively soft / muted response to the USDX. This certainly been topical up in December 09. USDX going down, does that really mean there's a come back of risk-appetite, or are these signs of short-covering, and some relief on overdone net-shorts in EUR? So far, no major breakouts of upward resistance levels or highs of this week, eg, EURUSD, Gold to suggest we have any significant levels of risk-appetite back other than what the equities are doing.

Where do we go from here in the next couple of trading days? So Mondays generally have been stronger commodity story, weaker dollar.

Even the Greek story seems a little overdone and stale - is this really providing much of a relief to risk appetite?

I'd love to hear your USDX plays for Mon/Tue next week.

As for me, I am net-long (more longs than short) on the AUDUSD since late last year (mostly for carry and cover my shorts in case AUDUSD does mount a rally to 93), and early next week sounds like some opportunities for profit taking. I am also net-short on EUR and maybe a chance its time to take profit on the long -- I was ready to cut losses on my small longs if NFP went ugly. I was net long on GBP after last weeks fall (very small amount with intention to make some money on retracement) and just happy to see that spike up in the very last leg of Friday, and I am closed with small profit- phew!

Callum

@Farzan, Good question on USDCAD. I am also long USDCAD. I am looking at s/l just below the Jan 2010 low in the low 1.02. I don't mind holding till parity but I'd question the validity of direction if it breaches 1.02

I am looking for events/catalysts that would drive the pair to the parity, or towards the Nov 07 low. Breakout in Oil above 85? I suppose this could happen, the question is the timeframe.

If this today's NFP is expected to USDX bullish, I hope to see USDCAD higher - thus buying on dips.

I'd hate to digress from the subject of this forum, but I felt compelled to share an opinion because there is no need for personal attacks.

I would like to hear everyone's opinion on the market, its movement, etc. We have seen some good examples of people on this forum that have taken short-term positions against overall macro trend suggested by Ashraf; some if taken advantage to cover, and have profited from it. I also enjoy reading everyone else inputs on this forum too!

Ashraf has said before, this isn't a signal service. Ashraf as for his insights, does a fantastic job, provides a level of insight far beyond anyone else I have yet to come across, and I am really very grateful.

God bless his soul !

Callum

@PippedOff - As for the JPY, I read another analyst suggesting that the rumor on China's revaluation of their RMB will have a strengthening of the JPY. As a light humor, do you think our GS friends have anything to do with secretly buying JPY before the any revaluation story hits the wire?

@coolshades - I am also keen to get Ashraf's answer on correlation on snow.

Here's my naive understanding. Extreme snow weather hampers manufacturing, and thus impacts manpower - the casual workers. People can't get to work. Anything outdoor related can come to a grind. This could provide less than expected payroll. Bad data is positive USDX, and bad for equities. Bad equities drives JPY lower.

Callum