@PippedOfff, I find the Westpac move interesting also. I have a feeling they don't want to be too far off from NAB's forecast of 0.93 this Qtr and dollar parity my middle of this year. They are probably politically safer in being bullish and change forecast later on additional risk :-)
@lilgeo, I am also watching on the sidelines with the Gold, et al, and not putting in a short until the Greece bailout story plays out, as I don't want to be caught out the yesterday style rally. One idea I am tossing with is to short below 1070 level (now 1072 at time of writing). As per Ashraf's tweet on Bernanki's testimony, there's a chance this would the ammo to take Gold into earlier lows or new lows?
I haven't yet heard any news from China? I don't see it the economic calendar and not getting through anything on TV (although not expecting Bloomberg/CNBC to cover this). Is this what is driving the lows in the Asian session ? ie, ASX is now below the levels pre-Germany news yesterday despite great earnings / commodity story from BHP today, and it seems EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are off their highs and lows of yesterday in the Asian session, below 23.6% and 38% respectively. Just wondering whether the EU session is expected to be in heavy bid following Asia open or sharp decline.
@Pippedoff, I am trying to figure out at this stage is how deep will the eur/jpy and eur/usd retrace before resuming on the continuation of the downfall.
Does EUR/JPY have room to stay in high 123 levels which coincides with 23.6% retracement levels off its extreme high/lows of this calendar year? EUR/USD on a 23% of the Nov peak would in 1.39 levels? With these EUR/JPY and EUR/USD looking topsy, hard to see how far it will go before it sends out panic / fear to anyone with existing shorts below current levels. There are other short-term headwinds ahead for the longs just as well as those on the short... Comments?
Hi Ashraf, wanted to get your opinion on whether its better to be on short on eur/jpy as a better play on the EU risk-aversion story compared to eur/usd. here's some thoughts to think eur/jpy could provide extreme profits on 2 fronts, ie, 1) on top of the eur fall due to the risk, 2) jpy drop compounded upon risk aversion as it unfolds carry trade. EUR/JPY has run up quite a bit today vs. EUR/USD and I am wondering whether I should short this instead of EUR/USD ... PS,I love your book/notes and hope my vote counts ... :-) Callum
I am looking at shorting at the 1070 level on the basis that the key support becomes the resistance, as also seen by Monday's failure to break / stay above the 1070 level Plus also waiting on the sidelines to see how deep is the pullback ...
NAB (National Australia Bank) updated it forecast on the AUD/USD to reach 90 levels by end of Q1, and dollar parity by June this year. NAB have changed their initial dollar parity to reach Q1 to June this year, and expect the year to end at 97 to accommodate for the sell-off.
Either NAB know something that most of us don't, but the AUD/USD at least to me doesn't look all that healthy, either on the technical front, fundamentally based on the risks from China and Euro zone, and while commodities are breaking key support levels.
@Asad, I am also waiting for a breakout, expecting a potential breakout post tomorrow's earning announcement ;-) Also, these 2 be most hit _when_ Gold takes a nose dive to low 1,000 levels, at which time they could for the moment offer a good LONG on these shares with potentially better gains than the AUD.
Mont, I follow 2 stocks BHP and Rio Tinto as they are generally reflective of commodity / China sentiments. I trade AUD/USD most of the early Asia sessions. Callum Bir
Personally, I prefer to look at correlation with CAD with Oil, and trade the USD/CAD instead or at times CAD/JPY. Lately though, I am also considering trading Oil ....
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موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
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Callum
Callum
Does EUR/JPY have room to stay in high 123 levels which coincides with 23.6% retracement levels off its extreme high/lows of this calendar year? EUR/USD on a 23% of the Nov peak would in 1.39 levels? With these EUR/JPY and EUR/USD looking topsy, hard to see how far it will go before it sends out panic / fear to anyone with existing shorts below current levels. There are other short-term headwinds ahead for the longs just as well as those on the short... Comments?
Either NAB know something that most of us don't, but the AUD/USD at least to me doesn't look all that healthy, either on the technical front, fundamentally based on the risks from China and Euro zone, and while commodities are breaking key support levels.
Are they really on something here?