Forum Posts by : callum (Forum Member)

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 24, 2010 10:25

@Magess, very interesting perspective. Keen to see your analysis.

I heard similar analysis of EURUSD in 1.50 region again this weel. I saw an analyst from DBS Bank (out of Singapore) on CNBC Asia or Bloomberg this week who is a overall dollar bear for this year, and expects the EURUSD into the 1.50 range. As for me personally, DBS's funds have been the worst performer out of my own portfolio of investments over the past 3 years - even their own relationship manager's don't recommend their own funds anymore - I am already so much underwater with them, that I take their analysis with a pinch of salt, to help me avoid wanting to puke.

Callum

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 24, 2010 9:56

In Thread: JPY

@taniral, here's my amateur analysis on USDJPY. At first sign of credit crisis of Dubai before the thanks-giving in the US (last November), USDJPY nose-dived below 85, hitting the lowest in some 14 or so years. Since November last year, credit risks have gone beyond Dubai, spread into PIGS, etc. Risk aversion now dominates the sentiments. Can we see another 84 before BOJ would intervene? That might sound extreme, but, it wasn't long when we saw these levels. Could Fitch downgrade, and if Moody's & S&P follow suit, could trigger the sharp strengthening of JPY? Maybe a step at a time. I been short at 92, 91.50, and now I have closed out with profits. I am watching a break below 90 to take this into 88 levels or a short relief rally as opportunities for more shorts. I would love to get views from experts in this forum. Callum

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 23, 2010 17:52

In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

@pippedoff, what level you think AUDUSD could get to with the help of RBA, GS, PPT, NAB, Westpac, etc? 90 plus room to breath? With Gold flirting 1100, sounds, they'd have a fair bit of work cut out for them!

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 23, 2010 14:52

In Thread: EUR

Ashraf's latest IMT "******** FITCH DOWNGRADES GREECE's 4 LARGEST BANKS ******** $EURUSD #forex $$"

I am assuming this is the green light for eurusd 132 getting much closer. Callum

Callum

Singapore

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Feb 23, 2010 10:55

In Thread: GBP

With cable making -170 pip move already, is it likely to re-test the recent low of around 1.5350 or at least extend to today's S3 (daily pivot) around 15362? Could retrace as much as 38/50% from today's high/low for fresh shorts? A fair bit of US data ahead ...

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 23, 2010 8:26

In Thread: EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index is out in 40 min. I am only speculating, could come better than expected, esp as export / mnf led companies had few good months of weaker EUR. Thus, I am looking forward for adding short positions if it advances well into 137

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 22, 2010 17:14

In Thread: Oil Weakness May Intensify

Hi Ashraf, do you have any view on seasonality factors for Oil over the next 3 months leading into the summer? I've been looking at the March-May on Crude Oil on average been up. But also cognizant of the extraordinary market conditions we are in now. If Oil's going to outperform say Gold, would that cap the relative CAD weakness vs current USD strengthening, compared to say the AUD?

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 22, 2010 16:25

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

Thanks Ashraf. I had my CADJPY short triggered at 87.85 I did close off at 8730. I also had shorts on USDJPY 92.00 and 9155 both closed with profits. You are great! God bless you!

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 20, 2010 11:48

In Thread: Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

@chloe, ditto, I also had originally set my set limits (t/p) on Gold at 1070, and then moved it up 1090 in early Asian session ... I am looking forward to the break below 1103 to close out. Also avoiding more shorts unless if it breaks upwards, in which case I will look for the next peak.

@pippedoff, nice moves. I too had closed most of shorts after early Asian trading session, added longs on AUD/USD and closed off at 8835, only to see it move much higher than I had expected. I was tempted to put in another small long on AUD / USD just before close, with a tight limit, as it has a high chance of hitting limit at gaps on monday morning, but I fell asleep trying to wait for Ashraf to come on CBNC - I am in Singapore, and today I struggled to keep up at 5am). I suppose I was getting a bit bored watching Obama which bumped off Ashraf's original TV slot.

I am looking forward to taking cues from Shanghai Comp. Index on Monday as China comes back this weekend from their 1 week spring festival vacation.

Keen to get views / comments on how next week could play out.

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 19, 2010 17:20

In Thread: Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

@pippedoff, are you expecting a major sell-off in equities before the NY close?

Posts by "callum"