Forum Posts by : callum (Forum Member)

Callum

Singapore

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Feb 10, 2010 16:09

In Thread: Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

@lilgeo , nice move, great to see you were already in the short ! I was expecting the usual Q&A from $Bernenki, the drop happened too quick for me to react as I didn't have my stop order placed in advance and chose not to chase it ...

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 10, 2010 14:48

In Thread: Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

@lilgeo, I am also watching on the sidelines with the Gold, et al, and not putting in a short until the Greece bailout story plays out, as I don't want to be caught out the yesterday style rally. One idea I am tossing with is to short below 1070 level (now 1072 at time of writing). As per Ashraf's tweet on Bernanki's testimony, there's a chance this would the ammo to take Gold into earlier lows or new lows?

Callum

Callum

Singapore

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Feb 10, 2010 10:21

In Thread: $1.32 Euro Under Construction

If California come under spotlight in terms of credit-rating or risk of default, what's would be the impact in the forex market? Maybe before California comes under spotlight, the spotlight might go to Japan, where their Debt-to-GDP ration is approx 200. USD still seems to be the anti-risk for all crisis, domestic or international, and thus I suspect will go up no matter what the risk event is. I like Ashraf's call on 132 for EUR/USD or lower. This is likely as the story moves from Greece to the next "crisis". Maybe experts in this forum could comment ... ???

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 10, 2010 5:13

In Thread: $1.32 Euro Under Construction

I haven't yet heard any news from China? I don't see it the economic calendar and not getting through anything on TV (although not expecting Bloomberg/CNBC to cover this). Is this what is driving the lows in the Asian session ? ie, ASX is now below the levels pre-Germany news yesterday despite great earnings / commodity story from BHP today, and it seems EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are off their highs and lows of yesterday in the Asian session, below 23.6% and 38% respectively. Just wondering whether the EU session is expected to be in heavy bid following Asia open or sharp decline.

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 9, 2010 15:56

In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

@Pippedoff, I am trying to figure out at this stage is how deep will the eur/jpy and eur/usd retrace before resuming on the continuation of the downfall.

Does EUR/JPY have room to stay in high 123 levels which coincides with 23.6% retracement levels off its extreme high/lows of this calendar year? EUR/USD on a 23% of the Nov peak would in 1.39 levels? With these EUR/JPY and EUR/USD looking topsy, hard to see how far it will go before it sends out panic / fear to anyone with existing shorts below current levels. There are other short-term headwinds ahead for the longs just as well as those on the short... Comments?

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 9, 2010 15:06

In Thread: $1.32 Euro Under Construction

Hi Ashraf, wanted to get your opinion on whether its better to be on short on eur/jpy as a better play on the EU risk-aversion story compared to eur/usd. here's some thoughts to think eur/jpy could provide extreme profits on 2 fronts, ie, 1) on top of the eur fall due to the risk, 2) jpy drop compounded upon risk aversion as it unfolds carry trade. EUR/JPY has run up quite a bit today vs. EUR/USD and I am wondering whether I should short this instead of EUR/USD ... PS,I love your book/notes and hope my vote counts ... :-) Callum

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 9, 2010 8:08

In Thread: Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

I am looking at shorting at the 1070 level on the basis that the key support becomes the resistance, as also seen by Monday's failure to break / stay above the 1070 level Plus also waiting on the sidelines to see how deep is the pullback ...

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 9, 2010 2:59

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

NAB (National Australia Bank) updated it forecast on the AUD/USD to reach 90 levels by end of Q1, and dollar parity by June this year. NAB have changed their initial dollar parity to reach Q1 to June this year, and expect the year to end at 97 to accommodate for the sell-off.

Either NAB know something that most of us don't, but the AUD/USD at least to me doesn't look all that healthy, either on the technical front, fundamentally based on the risks from China and Euro zone, and while commodities are breaking key support levels.

Are they really on something here?

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 9, 2010 2:52

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

@Asad, I am also waiting for a breakout, expecting a potential breakout post tomorrow's earning announcement ;-) Also, these 2 be most hit _when_ Gold takes a nose dive to low 1,000 levels, at which time they could for the moment offer a good LONG on these shares with potentially better gains than the AUD.

Callum

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 179

14 years ago

Feb 8, 2010 12:49

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Mont, I follow 2 stocks BHP and Rio Tinto as they are generally reflective of commodity / China sentiments. I trade AUD/USD most of the early Asia sessions. Callum Bir

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