EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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@pippedoff, what's the 3-day rollover premium?
Really appreciate your comments and open dialog to get me further thinking. I too would like to be bullish, but perhaps bracing myself for a potential sharp correction as market shrugs off US politics, China, Dubai, PIGS, et al. On top of that, couple of other key factors that adds provide further significant pressure on AUD:
1. Japan. Dubai's first news during thanks-giving was classic when JPY went 14 year high, with AUD getting most sold against the JPY -- more than the AUD/USD. Major JPY strengthening, as we've seen eg, with the break of USD/JPY below 90 handle earlier in the week, and the AUD/JPY break below 80 handle momentarily yesterday between the Geithner testimony and FOMC. A major structural shift to JPY strength could also put more weight could provide major sell off of AUD/USD?
2. Gold. Where are the Gold Bulls? The likes of Jim Rogers and India seems to have become tight-lipped about Gold in past 2 months. At least I haven't seen anything in media. Maybe waiting for the break below 1070, and then buying physical gold in the lows? I also haven't heard any more India's interest with the rest of Gold from IMF - again - its all super quiet? Perhaps this silence will continue whilst Gold toys above 1070 and below 1100. A break below could also potentially drag AUD
Having said that, given the Asian session following Obama's state of union address had propped AUD/USD above the 90 handle -- perhaps speculators now have the momemtum to push the aud/usd higher ahead of the RBA rate announcement?
Callum
This week, the PPI data was -ve while the CPI data was better than expected, although not extremely great, but resulting in the 80% expectation of rate hikes from 60%. Other key factors that could weigh in to a neutral position could include
* Poor housing data upon cut-back of Govt stimulus / 1st home buyer program
* China. Although it seems like China is going to grow faster and guzzle up more of commodities from Australia, Bank's cuts in lending could weigh into the Aust's commodity led growth story.
* US Politics.
Thus, if the RBA doesn't raise interest rates, this would totally create a major disappointment to those who had priced in the rate hike. That could potentially be the trigger to move aud/usd below the Christmas eve low?
On the other hand, if it is able to hold above the 23.6% fibo (8950) between highs and lows of 2008, and if the RBA does raise interest rates, AND their comments come hawkish / or suggestion unprecedented 5th rates (lots of ANDs already), this could give it the prop needed to re-test the key resistance above 93 at the back of the long-term dollar-parity hype?
Obviously US upcoming US politics and news could significantly change this....