Posts by "callum"

Hi Ashraf, can I clarify on the effect on China RMB appreciation on Commodity and commodities currrencies.

Wells Fargo's Bennenbroek mentioned this appreciation would be bullish for commodities currencies.

Also, Westpac Analyst today on CBNC Asia mentioned that AUD and more importantly AUDJPY would benefit very strongly, and even expect 90/95 this year.

I remember you already said that China tightening means STRONGER JPY (&TWD, MYR).

I thought Stronger JPY would drag AUDJPY down. I thought yesterday's China speculation had driven AUDUSD and CADUSD DOWN including Oil. Is this a misdirection? Is this why Gold is stronger also?

I hope to get your advice.

Is this a breakout of Gold on the upside?

Ashraf did have on his twitter IMT on Chris Vermeulen's Blog on his articlehttp://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-blogs/1250/ which points out the BULLISH on Gold.


Is the 1020/1050 Gold target invalidated or is this just noise?

Hi Ashraf, in your recent Canada TV interview, you covered CAD/JPY saying we need to see Friday close above 90. With this week's closing over 93 much higher, do you still CADJPY possibly coming down? Thank-you.

Hoping to get your view on how to assess this NFP expectation, good/bad scenario, esp with commodity ccy plus EUR, GBP, in light to the reaction of the ADP??

Yesterday's ADP reaction on the USDJPY pair seemed straight forward, but I thought I saw the EURUSD and other commodities pair going higher. Is this the expected behavior for this NFP also?

@Pipster - For JPY to fall, we are going to need 1) risk-aversion, any fresh debt crisis or 2) Chinese lending rate hikes or RMB appreciation. 3) anything else that triggers US equity market to fall. I won't be surprised if this long-weekend ahead would thin liquidity coupled with expectation of NFP +ve 190K extending crazy gains in the US equity markets, as it has done in the week of the last 2 long-weekends, ie, Thanks-Giving and Christmas.