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2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
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catnip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
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catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 20:54
In Thread: EUR
Well if 50% employees are govt employees prostitution MUST be accounted in GDP
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 20:27
In Thread: EUR
Apparently not enough we are now at EUr 45 bill ( and rising??)
Greece Wins EU45 Billion Aid Pledge to Blunt Crisis By James G. Neuger and Jonathan Stearns

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- burdened Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates as they try to end its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.
Ok let's go long for 1.38 but beware ... that means more or less qe and ECB will be disabled to follow
any FED and or PBOC hike or just tightening
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 20:09
In Thread: EUR
As said EUR 30 bn is not enough...now its EUR 45 Billion Aid Pledge . EUR at 1.356 USD. USDx future heads down
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 18:28
In Thread: EUR
What does not fit here?
The relative weakness of commodity currencies. I don't buy , in case of CAD, "disappointing labor market" and such.
And the sudden weakness of SEK. I relate this to loans EUR denominated to Eastern Europe economines
by swedish banks. Let's face it: the Greece debt crisis is a hype. Greece's economy contributes about 2% to the Eurozone total GDP. The debt of Eastern Europe in EUR , combined Lithuania to Ukraine to Romania is in the range of EUR trillions. This is the "bomb" . This is a geopolitical item as Russia's intend is , rather unshielded, to "get back" what the USSR lost, the European satelites.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 17:53
In Thread: EUR
Could be however it is right now a guarantee of a bailout. It is not clear what would actually trigger a real bailout ( EUR 30 bln may not be enough). It appears that finance ministers from the 16 euro countries will give the loans at 3y interst of 5% only if Greece really needs it thus their speculation is that would be enough to ward off so called speculators and Greece won't ever need it.
That is these simpletons are convinced Greece's debt all comes from speculators, Greece has nothing to do with it.
Well it will not work but for a week or two, maybe until May , one could make some profit with EUR/USD long but has to use stops or trailing stops.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:52
In Thread: EUR
The basic reason why I changed mind from short to long is EUR/SEK . I had been short a couple of times on this pari with good to excellent results. But as I know Swedish banks gave plenty of loans to Eastern Europe EUR denominated and saw SEK falling vs. EUR I got suspicious. The loans to Eastern Europa are a much bigger thread than Greece debts. Without IMF these loans were already non perfoming. Austrai an EUR member with a broadly diversified industry has 300% of GDP in loans to Eastern Eur. countries.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:42
In Thread: EUR
Correction SHORT not long I am long EURUSD now expecting a kind of bailout that holds for the rest of PIIGS principally.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:36
In Thread: EUR
I expect GBP to drop vs EUR and USD along with EURUSD up. If 10 year note yield crosses 4% up
I would go long EUR/USD
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 13:31
In Thread: EUR
EURUSD will break above 1.35 and may even exceed 1.36 but watch US 10 y note yield.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 12:59
In Thread: EUR
It is generally overlooked that the debt of Eastern European economies are EUR denominated.
What would happen if EUR strengthens after a Gr bailout by whatever workaround of EURO treaties?
Then we have more than a pair of shoes to drop. First Portugal and Spain next all of those Eastern Europe economies whose lifeline is borrowing from IMF and EU at politically unsustainable terms.
Thus any recovery of the EUR is a step towards its end.
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