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Posts by "catnip"

2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
2 Posts by member
catnip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 10, 2010 21:29
In Thread: GBP
GBP was/is boosted by EUR weakness. See Soros' comments they are correct imo.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 10, 2010 20:51
In Thread: EUR
This is politics but could have influence on EUR. Please note the excerpt below appeared in an April 7
2010 article in the Kremlin-controlled RIA Novosti. Polish President Lech Kaczynski and central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek were killed today along with several key members of the countrys political elite when their plane crashed in western Russia.

Here is the excerpt from RIA Novosti April 7. :

"Regrettably, new myths are cropping up in today's Poland. The biggest myth has to do with "the threat from the East." The Kaczynski brothers - the president and former prime minister - have spoken freely about this danger, and until recently, Poland was under their sway.

One of the brothers, Lech, is still the president. In the last few weeks, he openly expressed his jealousy of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was invited by Putin to visit Katyn. Until this year, memorial ceremonies at the graves of the Polish officers at Katyn were a strictly Polish affair. Polish presidents and ministers visited the site but unofficially. These were almost family events with the officers' relatives in attendance.

This is the first ceremony attended by Russian leaders but not the Polish president. Kaczynski's stated intention to visit Katyn three days later with the relatives of the dead and a propaganda landing party is a political gesture motivated more by discontent and envy than respect for the memory of the victims.

Kaczynski got the hint, and he will have to bear responsibility for his speech at a square in Tbilisi next to the war criminal Mikheil Saakashvili several days after the attack on Tskhinval - a speech filled with irresponsible anti-Russian rhetoric. Kaczynski may only be judged by history for his actions, but one thing is certain: he will not be remembered as a political leader ..."
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 10, 2010 20:31
In Thread: EUR
The workaround is apparently accepted. It is basically a loan guarantee which becomes active if Greece fails to raise funds needed for roll over etc. IMF participates ( however I see no strcit commitment by IMF just a proposal) at cost of 3.26% .
The key however is
The lack of clarity regarding the mechanism for timely external financial support may have hindered Greeces access to market finance at affordable cost and hence further undermined confidence in the capacity of the government to meet its fiscal targets, Fitch said in an e-mailed statement.

EU has indeed no mechanisms established to react in real time to instabilities. Instead EU and local govts spent months debating the role of speculators.
One could expect EUR/USD to break over 1.35 and reach up to 1.36 JPY and GBP getting weaker and 10 year note yield to rise above 4%. But it won't last long, until May at most.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 20:53
I noticed that WTI futures and copper futures reacted immediately on China's ministry of trade comments on yuan appreciating negative for China economy. It is imo obvious that the driving idea behind US' urging China to appreciate is deflation worries.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 19:47
Yes there is. Kitco's Jim Willie, a USD perma bear, writes interesting thesis on how UST yields are capped ( artificially) with interest rate swaps. I consider to give his Hat Trick Letter a try.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 19:39
In Thread: EUR
@macrosam
yes it is intended to benefit Gr correct BUT it must be valid for all Euro zone members eventually.
Consider EUR is not a currency, it is a political/legal treaty based construct. I think the proposed qe bailout had little to no chance to be voted for by all members as it is not permitted by EUR "constitution" but under that pressure a sort of workaround is due. It could work and hold if and only if
there is a economical recovery globally otherwise it will end up in a vast disaster.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 18:54
In Thread: EUR
The rumors re borrow at euribor + some hundred basis points is quantitative easing. If that qe is going to come it MUST be for all Euro members. And that is a very crucial point. It is not true that only FED BOJ BOE has been shoring up liquidity ECB did so in the same scale. The expectation in qe is, if it is to happen at all, that the industrially less developed PIGS could buy on credit industrial products from the economically strong. But how could that work if EU demands them to bring down debt to 3% of the respective GDP? I think it cannot. If it is not catch-22 it is the construction of a inflationary spiral. This
at the same time as FED tightens can only be a temporary lift of EUR.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 16:48
In Thread: GBP
I don't see everyone rushing for EUR. JPY buys EUR. For the cross there is apparently some short squeeze going on. Although a high risk I will open short EUR/USD short EUR/JPY somewhat later today.
I consider going long on US 10 y June note. I suppose PBOC doesn't move right now and does no tightening immediately BOC call options rally a bit.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 15:47
In Thread: EUR
Ok it is almost official: quantitative easing. EU banks are now supposed to buy Gr bonds with 4% premium to German bunds ( 10 y ) and dump the stuff at ECB's assets. Thereby EU banks get rid off
supposedly non perfoming GR bonds which they already hold.
Next logical step were to bring workload outsourced to China and Eastern Europe to Greece...but that won't happen. So wait for the next shoe to drop it won't be long.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 15:20
In Thread: EUR
Whatever I'll increase my EUR/CAD short , EUR/AUD short, and EUR/NZD short when these have peaked. Watch EUR/NOK . If it doesn't fall I'll bet we are seeing a false breakout of EUR.