EUR

The workaround is apparently accepted. It is basically a loan guarantee which becomes active if Greece fails to raise funds needed for roll over etc. IMF participates ( however I see no strcit commitment by IMF just a proposal) at cost of 3.26% .
The key however is
The lack of clarity regarding the mechanism for timely external financial support may have hindered Greeces access to market finance at affordable cost and hence further undermined confidence in the capacity of the government to meet its fiscal targets, Fitch said in an e-mailed statement.

EU has indeed no mechanisms established to react in real time to instabilities. Instead EU and local govts spent months debating the role of speculators.
One could expect EUR/USD to break over 1.35 and reach up to 1.36 JPY and GBP getting weaker and 10 year note yield to rise above 4%. But it won't last long, until May at most.

Ashraf
It's a close call on 1.35 but it's holding below 1.35 into the close. Do you still predict 1.30 by end of April or do you reserve judgment till we know what happens over the weekend?
Thanks
G

Finally decided that it may be time to cover my short...at 1.3510.

Ashraf did a good job in predicting the overall downtrend over the past months. Thank you.

And while, if the stop isn't triggered (which it very well may not be), I'll be happy to ride this position down to 1.30, 1.28...or lower, but I can't say I'm disappointed having put up 10K cash on 1/19 and
emerging with about 36K when stopped-out.

Today's events once again show that you can so often toss both technical and
fundamental factors out the window when the public (which has, sometimes, collectively
an attention-span measured in nanoseconds) once again becomes a fool.

Little Nicky Sarkozy again says, "we will save Greece," and Berlusconi mimics him as he takes time out from his latest 18-year-old friend and says, "whatsa madder wid you guys?"

It reminds me of Mark Twain's quote, "smart men argue about reasons, but fools make the final decisions."

Fear and greed. Greed and fear. That's all that ultimately drives any market that involve humans.

I've heard the euribor + 275 rumors as well but if the market believed that was the agreed upon, the GGB yield curve should have really steepened. The front-end of that curve should be considered money good and anything 1-year and in should have ripped in significantly more than it did, especially if a bailout package is announced where the amount of euros backing Greece exceed the debt due in 2010.

Not saying that this won't happen Sunday/Monday, but it didn't happen today. I suspect there is more to the weekend meeting than negotiating a Greece bailout package. I wonder if some of the contagion has indeed already begun to spread to banks within the EU.