Posts by "cygnus"

Ahoy!

Especially where I am in Midtown, Manhattan gets ridiculously packed with people this time of year. It's difficult to walk down the street at times.

1.3150 does seem righteous but - long term - I think the euro will have much larger leg down.

Although its grim, I'm afraid Bass is likely correct.

Only the USA and UK have recapitalized their banks. Remember, Germany has defaulted twice in the last 100 years.

If the euro banks collapse, the eurozone could lose 50% of its GDP. Next could be Japan, which has the worst financials and demographics in the world (at present, only a 2% interest rate rise on Japanese debt might be enough to cause a default) . The USD will likely sky-rocket. There would be a deflationary depression.

Thanks for sharing, Dave.

Excuse the interruption but - in contrast to subway - my bias has been short for quite some time. My reasoning is based on technical analysis (of course, based on my perception) and fundamentals (of course, based on my perception).

Technically, the trend for EUR/USD is short, not long. There have been lower highers and lower lows since 2008. As I have stated on numerous occasions, I have been expecting a wave three down - which will bring new lows for EUR/USD - target is 1.15. This remains in line with my favored count. Nothing has changed in that regard whatsoever in my view.

Fundamentally, I am expecting a deflationary depression, with the USD sky-rocketing in value before the USD will, perhaps, ultimately crash and/or there will be a military conflict on a global scale. Huge amounts of credit are evaporating which is shrinking true money supply - thus the eminent deflation. The futility of liquidity infusions by governments are becoming more apparent by the day, week, month.... The debt check will eventually be returned to issuer marked "account over drawn" with a bounced check penalty. Those countries with their populations currently under USA military protection will be left to defend themselves.


I know this view is grim but some of you reading this know I have been saying it for a long time.

Change you can believe in.

If there was a better charting tool on here subway could show you his lines.

There are many ways people identify potential support and resistance levels. The most obvious is looking back at levels where there was previous support and resistance you mentioned.

Then there is trend line support and resistance. Some also look at channels where there is an upper and lower trend line.

Some people also use pivot points that are based on a calculation using the open, high, low and close price over a prior time period.

Then there is fibonacci ratio levels.

I recall subway once mentioning that he uses a Gann fan type analysis to identify support and resistance.

You also have wave analysis as in Elliot Wave theory. This involves pattern recognition and fractals.

Ignore, my short got stopped at break even and I am sidelined now. In any event, agree with you and Ashraf on the probabilities that the the next big move is likely down. Still at somewhat of a cross roads here imo so I decided to wait to see more of what develops after getting stopped on last short.

Saw a Polar Bear this morning walking down 6th Ave in Midtown Manhattan. He asked me if I knew where he could find Al Gore...