Posts by "cygnus"

I hear you about not being cocky. I have learned to be quite humble actually. I have a couple of trading methods that work for me and I stick to them.

I sometimes catch a boat off of Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn in the evening to go fishing for flounder. What's really fun, though, is going out of Montauk for stripped bass or way out for tuna (never did that at night, however). I went out for stripped bass a couple of weeks ago...

In what parts are you based these days?

It certainly has been very quiet here. I hope all is well with you Sir Ignore.

Does anyone know what happened to Subway???

Subway, if you still read this forum, I was wondering if you changed your view yet from that expressed in your post quoted below? In any event, Subway, in case you do still read this forum, I hope all is well and that things have also worked out for you.

QUOTE

subway90

August 22, 2011 10:32 ET
Member since Nov 2010 In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Trading...

as far as i know... Cygnus remains USD bull and expecting USD to significantly strengthen in coming years.... if his bet on that assumption materializes... i guess it will work out for him....
but i have my doubts above USD and see it moving lower in coming years... looking at the USDx chart... i still remain quite negative and see much more downside.... until i see clear signal that USD has bottomed... not betting on USD strengthening anytime soon....

UNQUOTE

What sense is there in keeping money in a European bank, earning little or no interest, where it can be looted over night?

You would think that one might be better off with keeping their euros under their pillow but, even while under the pillow, euros can still be looted by devaluation.

So, why hold Euros?

It still appears to me that likely faced with what will be a deflationary event in the US. The US dollar will continue to gain in value.

The last such deflationary event happened in the 30s and was precipitated by a stock market crash on Wall Street (perhaps the bursting of the housing bubble this go around) and subsequent collapse of the European financial system beginning with a failure in Austria that cause contagion (perhaps beginning with the failure of Greece this time around).

The vast majority of my money continues to be in cash (i.e. short term US treasuries), but I am short EUR/USD.

In terms of EW, I still believe we are an impulse wave 3 on multiple levels for EUR/USD.