Forum Posts by : frankbrit (Forum Member)

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Sep 16, 2010 10:10

In Thread: GBP

@ subway90. I see what you're saying and that was in my mind too which is why I am on the fence. A sell-out could take things south. I think we will have our answer quite soon.

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Sep 15, 2010 20:10

In Thread: JPY

Reuters reported this morning that Japan stood ready to give a second dose during Tokyo trading if need be. But it might be rather dumb to fire more ammo when the market is hunkered down in the trench already. It's Kan showing that though he's not pro-interventionist he will take a stand and he does listen to Japanese business. Having jawboned for so long they wanted to show they had teeth too.

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jan 22, 2010 15:52

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

I must say I'm feeling something queasy in my stomach a bit like mid 2008 - a shifting of the sands which was happening gently over the last months - since September perhaps - has suddenly accelerated - could be time for another of your stimulating articles Ashraf?

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jan 21, 2010 21:50

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

@ said - I played pips before and was too inexperienced, wasn't comfortable with the rapid tempo, too greedy and lost my discipline. The last was the killer vice ... discipline in planning and execution is the key and cooly understanding the extent one's exposure all the while. In addition, add a large dollop of humility.

The longer game suits me much better at the moment and has been working very well since mid-2008. If I can find an FX provider with very low leverage levels available 10-50/1 rather than 100/1 then I might be interested to enter the shorter term fray again. For the time being dailies, weeklies and 1/1 cash is where I'm at.

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jan 21, 2010 19:27

In Thread: Aussie Dressed up but where to Go?

Dear Ashraf,

AUD/JPY - is this the start of the fifth wave on the monthlies? What kind of price level might it finish at in your view? Will this coincide with the next big downward move on the stockmarkets a la 2008?

Big questions I know, but always interested to hear your thoughts as IMO you have a very interesting broad holistic approach to your analysis.

Thanks for your generosity and very best regards.

FrankBrit

Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jan 7, 2010 23:59

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

@ rkkashmir,

Very interesting to read your sentiments on the mid/longer term outlook and thanks for taking the time to put them down.

Re. JPY - I don't think the Fin Min's comments were any big surprise and the reaction was partly the market looking for an excuse to take the current move further ("baked in" as you say). There aren't too many governments praying that their currency strengthens in the current economic climate - so what else was the Fin Min going to say?

I'm not in the short term trading these days as too busy at work and one needs to have the right frame of mind to keep the discipline. Good luck though and well done on the last ride.

Your last para. The stock market rally since March has developed into an impressive and extended rising wedge and the RSI is clearly diverging bearishly and volume and momentum have been falling steadily so I don't think any observer would be surprised at a sell off - but these things have a habit of running longer than we think before the inevitable happens.

After the present major USD/JPY up move completes where do you feel that the down move will finish? Talking daily/weekly charts ... Look forwrd to hearing your thoughts on that in the morning - it's 0100 hrs here!

BTW - I'd be interested to hear what Ashraf thinks about which currency is likely to fare best in the event of a marked stockmarket drop (USD, or JPY, or alternating - or some other currency ...?).

Nite All.

FrankBrit

Frankfurt, Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Nov 10, 2009 20:46

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

Ashraf - read your article on the Yen which crystalised my own thoughts over the last months. I very largely share your view and have made the same observation about the curious movement of the Yen in recent weeks. It's reassuring to have someone of your experience say it however. One point I'd like to add refers to your comment "JPY could outshine USD during the next episode falling appetite as markets exploit it as an opportunity to sell the greenback." That's my own feeling and my reasoning is that although the USD is growing as a funding currency, it is interesting to note that the Nikkei has not been nearly as bullish as the S & P in recent months which is likely to mean that Yen have been investing in the more bullish overseas markets - including those of the US. If the S & P falls then these positions will be somewhat reversed and this is what will make the Yen strengthen against the USD despite the fact that the USD is increasingly the funding currency of choice. Is my thinking correct?

Posts by "frankbrit"