EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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Do not disagree on GBP/AUD. Am just extremely skeptical of UK recovery. Infact next will be UK with their QE2 and Pound on its ultimate fall again.
Hence I prefer EUR/AUD on a fundamental and tech level given that it has broken away from the 12 months down trend and now holding on to uptrend.
Am also keenly watching AUD/YEN. Given the consistent favorable data out of Japan, chances of a major equity selloff in second half and diving yields in the US are all acting drivers for YEN breakout to 80 or even 78 to the US dollar. I prefer long YEN to AUD than GBP/AUD.
Let me know ur thought on YEN.
given eur/aud trading 1.433 after the dramatic rise in unemployment rate in Australia....do u see this pair continuing the climb to 1.48?
It has broken a long term downtrend line and now is sitting very close to the uptrend line at 1.4300......
While I respect your views on EUR/USD, but somehow you have got it wrong on the pair. There is literally zero probablity of EUR/USD cracking 1.1. Right now even with the weigth of 80-120k shorts at varying points of time, EURO is taken a low of 1.16. What does that tell you? There is bear raid on the currency and yet their buyers out there. And huge buyers!!!
EURO currency will appreciate not just against the USD but against every other currency incl CAD,GBP for the simple reason that while EU is reigned by a cacophony of idiots, but as and when needed they are pulling their might to reign in the deficit levels. The willingness to bring in austerity while painful is being executed. SUch levels of decision making is not seen even in the US.
So probably what you see is a decoupling of world equties and commodities from the dollar and coupling to the new currency EURO. It is only a matter of time before you see Oil and others trading in EURO rather than dollar. You have already seen that linkage (unofficially) in Gold. As EUR/USD rises, you see Gold falling!! Exact opposite was happening last year. You will see similar relationship building in every other asset classes vis vis EURO.
YEN and EURO movements are historic moves and they will define the next leg of depression/crash. Preludes to massive disorder.
But EUR/USD parity is near impossible. But is 1.1 possible? Maybe yes but tough.
But if eur gains momentum near the 1.33 levels, then we staring at short trip to some unseen levels.
It will boil down to one question ultimately:
Forsake the EURO or Forsake the 3 countries?
EURO as a currency was not made for convenience but to be a reserve currency. There is no way that dream will be forsaken by the "folks" who created EURO. Much rather they will forsake the ones who stand in its way (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the likes)
My view is that ultimately EU will be a 10 nation super efficient piece which will lead the world and take the void left behind by US.