Posts by "groove"

Sell bonds you know the rule when everyone has bought SELL

amateur observation. crude on a monthly chart looks like upside since financial crises was nothing more than a prolonged correction before it carries on down. I was an oil bug but the chart speaks for itself. Now I am definitely not a gold bug so I look at gold from a relatively neutral perspective and a little thought at the back of my head keeps saying if gold can't go up in the build up never mind after a dovish fomc whats it going to do on a bad day. Silver has stolen all the gold bugs which is hardly surprising as silver only has to move thirty odd cents for 1% compared to 17 dollars.
The reason for this is it looks to me that in trying to prevent a bad recession for a couple of years Ben Bernanke has got his come uppance at last and his QE (TITANIC) strategy is about to kill the market. BUYING UP BONDS REDUCES LIQUIDITY and benny boy has been buying one too many.
THAT IN MIND BEFORE YOU SELL ANYTHING SOME FEEDBACK ON MY TRADING STRATEGY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
BUY GOLD - SELL STOCKS (WAS THE OPPOSITE TILL A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO)
AND FOR ALL YOU GOLDBUGS
BUY SILVER - SELL GOLD TILL GOLD 1800 (IF IT EVER HAPPENS AGAIN) THEN FLIP THEM ROUND

consumerism can have a powerful deflationary effect. If you look at LCD tv prices, cars, all the things we like to have are constantly manufactured at a quicker rate than can be consumed. Add in whats happening in India where a growing Indian middle class whose taste is alot more refined than just wanting a bit of shiny metal as a gift and you have to face the reality of there is only so much people are prepared to pay for things.
Gold mathmatically looks difficult to invest at these levels (17 dollar gain for 1%) hence such high interest in silver which is why I feel at best gold can plateau or be range (this years) bound but were it not to finish above January high 1762 we could see gold below 1525 next year.
It would make a fine indicator of how naive bernanke is as we are faced to confront the fact that to prevent a 3 - 5 year recession you have to create another great depression