EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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see the chart at :http://globaltechnicals.typepad.com/blog/2011/01/us-dollar-index-continuation-of-the-uptrend-very-likely-.html
Medium -term Analysis : I believe the ongoing and unstoppable intermediate rally that started in august on Silver has finally come to an end. A potential intermediate top is in place at 31.245 and the path of least resistance is to the downside from now on. Here is why:
(i) First and foremost, the rising wedge which has started on nov.16th a bearish reversal signal when it comes at the end of a meaningful rally, has been decisively broken on a closing basis. I have already been writing about it (see my dec.15th post) and this has happened last night.
(ii) The January 3rd Doji at 31 hinted that the bulls were loosing control of the price, the confirmation came not only with the short-term support up trendline break (in red) but also with (a) the bearish crossover of the two short-term eMAs 5 & 13 and (b) the support break at 29.50.
(iii) In the recent decline off the 31.245 peak, Silver has performed its first impulsive wave 1 down breaking down itself into 5 minor waves (not visible on the chart). This is the sign of a major trend shift.
(iv) The RSI is not only negatively diverging from the price since November, it has for the first time since august significantly fell below 50 well into negative territory.
(v) The measured price objective extracted from the massive inverted head and shoulders pattern is completed at 30$ ( see my dec.12th post for details). I wrote then , that the upside potential was limited. Silver has indeed rose only one extra dollar since to 31$.
(vi) Last but not least. Silver is rallying since 2001 (not visible on the chart). If one connects the several primary peaks between each other ( 2004, 2006 and 2008) one gets a confirmed long-term resistance uptrend line. The price always pulled back off these peaks. This line is passing through the price at 30 so I strongly believe that this is an extraordinary potential resistance level that should not be hurdled before several months to come.
All these bearish technicals converging with each other make a strong case for a medium-term bearish reversal
click here to see the chart :http://globaltechnicals.typepad.com/blog/2011/01/silver-is-landing-.html
(i) My Elliot wave count (see chart) is suggesting that the price has just finished the intermediate fifth wave of the primary fifth wave ( remember this is a weekly chart). The latter being a truncated fifth a potent sign of weakness.
(ii) In doing so, the price is designing a potential double top. This reversal price pattern will be confirmed only if 0.95378 is decisively violated on the downside.
(iii) There is a meaningful RSI bearish divergence between primay 3 up and primary 5 (in blue on the chart) that shows to me that behind the new high, there is some underlying weakness. This weakness is reinforced by another bearish divergence between intermediate 3 and intermediate 5 (in red on the chart). These two bearish divergences which are piling on one another is a strong signal that this market is potentially topping.
(iv) A dark cloud cover is currently forming and is confirming a previous dark cloud that took shape 8 weeks ago at the same threshold (1.02). Two weekly bearish candlesticks signals confirming each other at same level are really reinforcing resistance and I do not believe that AUDUSD will go any higher than 1.02558.
Confirmation of the new downtrend will come at the up trendline break which has yet to happen.
go tohttp://globaltechnicals.typepad.com to see the chart.
Short-term Analysis : After a steep rally from 80.30 to 84.40, the pair is in a sideways consolidation that is slowly taking the shape of an ascending triangle. A bullish continuation pattern. Key level remains at 84.50 and only a breakout to the upside would be a clear bullish signal for a further advance. What I like very much about this chart is the impulsive advance that took place on dec.14th & 15th and the corrective 5-day consolidation ending up today with a variation of a dragon-fly doji. That doji is also confirming a potential up trendline. I remain bullish overall about USDJPY and there is a technical possibility that the advance is going to start very soon and go as high as 86.50.
see the chart here :http://globaltechnicals.typepad.com/blog/2010/12/usdjpy-potential-ascending-triangle.html
Medium-Term Analysis : The Aussie is performing a large bearish reversal pattern known as "Complex Head & Shoulders" against the US Dollar. There were two left shoulders and the price is now probably terminating the second right shoulder. The broken rising wedge and the declining RSI are in my view confirming this hypothesis and the commodity dollar should from now on underperform the greenback.
see the chart :http://globaltechnicals.typepad.com/blog/2010/12/audusd-head-shoulders-reversal-pattern-at-hand.html
Short-Term Analysis - EURJPY traded latterally for almost three months and finally broke down to 108.35 . The Euro Bulls pushed it back right at support now turned Resistance but stopped then their rally. The upward march took the shape of a corrective rising wedge. Today, the ascending trendline was decisively violated and the bears took apparently control.
see the chart :http://globaltechnicals.typepad.com/blog/2010/12/eurjpy-bearish-rising-wedge-at-resistance.html