Posts by "merchant"

On the AUdJPy 4 hr chart, it seems an ascending triangle is forming. Again, the risk is to the upside. Anyone disagrees ?

General comment. Although the risk play seems to have faltered, but it is very well supported. There maybe a second phase of the risk play.

dHussey,

I tend to agree with what u said. Care to share how u arrived at 90.50 on USDJPY as the pivot point ?

Need advice and like to share my experience. How do we know the next leg down is here ?

On June 4, EuroYen started declining. I told myself, better wait for confirmation. Maybe just a correction of the up move that started on June 1. Then it moved down so much and so fast that I told myself: it was very near its previous low. Most likely the down move is over. Then it moved further down and ended. I missed the whole move down of 400 pips.

Then on 15 June, it moved down more than 100 pips down from its high around 112.82. Well, I told myself the downtrend has started and I joined in. Then it started moving up.

Any advice ?

Hi all,

What do you think is the event that will trigger Euro next leg down ? SocGen losses, Fitch downgraded Spain (has it already don that ?), downgrade of Italy by one of the three agencies, collapse of a European bank (Commezbank), E.Europe collapse ? We'll need one or will Euro just drift slowly down ?

Hi Ashraf and all,

Euro must fall below what value (other than its previous low around 1.18 something) to signal the next leg down is beginning ? There are false breaks to the north as mentioned by others, but there are also false breaks to the south as on Friday.

Also, better to short it against the USD or the yen ? If risk aversion to return, the yen is bound to rise and the euro may move more with the yen ?