Posts by "montmorency"

Ashraf's IMT of May 26, 2010 15:06 GMT: THOSE SPANISH BANKS AGAIN - reminds me that Santander is now a player in the UK market. I'm not aware that Santander is in any trouble at the moment, but these things have a way of spreading don't they. Could lead to more bad news for the UK as well as the Eurozone.

Isn't the "Status Quo Option" covered by "other"?

Since this issue is now widely being discussed elsewhere, I think this poll is a very interesting idea.

VOTE:Greece will exit Eurozone for ever

Although I voted "Greece will exit Eurozone for ever", I think that Italy will also go, and maybe Spain. Possibly Portugal and others. However, as I am less sure about this, I didn't vote "At least 3 Eurozone Nations to Exit", since it might only be 2.


I have an idea that if a smaller Eurozone is established of only prosperous, relatively low-debt, low-inflation countries, then one or more of the Scandinavian countries might join, the first perhaps being Denmark.

BTW, I think Osborne will put VAT up to at least 20%. Even 25% would not surprise me. That would send some messages.

@Gino: I'm sure he is right technically, but I wonder where are the fundamentals to back it up?

@Station: Of course a weak home currency potentially helps exports, but first, you have to have something worth exporting (like Germany). Tourism is ok, but we can't live by that alone; that is for 3rd World countries, not the mother of the industrial revolution. The outgoing "New" Labour government belatedly decided to pay some attention to industry in its last dying days, having ignored it for the best part of 13 years. Perhaps the Conservatives will do better, but I doubt it.

I remember years ago in pre-Euro days and before I knew anything about trading, observing the exchange rates in the newspaper, and observing that, like ourselves, Italy had a "leaky" currency that just kept getting weaker, whereas Switzerland and Germany were rock solid, and just kept getting stronger.

Devaluation should be the icing on the export cake; it shouldn't be the whole cake. It should be like a gas/accelerator pedal to tweak things up a little when they are flagging, not an engine in itself.