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montmorency

(Abingdon, United Kingdom)

74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":

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montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 23:21

In Thread: EUR

I don't know the "where", but the "when" will be when it starts moving down again with conviction.
I don't think anyone can yet predict where that will be.

montmorency

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 17:20

In Thread: WorldCup2010

Must say, I had fancied Argentina before the game, but it was a completely convincing win by Germany.
What a game!

Did you see Angela Merkel getting to her feet?
Reckon this will send the Euro up by at least a cent next week.

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 11:25

In Thread: EUR

Just to finish off the point about AUD/USD and the stock market: There is a nice video on Cantos charts about the FTSE. OK, that's just one market, but of course it has a lot in common with the others:
http://www.cantos.com/charts/project/6665/company/BETA%20Group/term/Analysis

(I think you need to be registered (free)).

Basically he (Paddy Osborn) sees a _possible_ 4-500 pip drop in the FTSE, with little confidence in the upside, or of course it could just drift sideways for the summer.

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 10:17

In Thread: EUR

@Ozzy: On AUD/USD: Yes, I remember Ashraf saying that, but it depended on continued stock market weakness. But the stock market picked up, and with it the AUD/USD. Since the stock market has weakened again, so has the AUD/USD. Not in lock step perhaps, but it does seem to follow. It is looking quite bearish at the moment, after its recent small rally.

Lots of people are predicting a market crash as well.

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 10:04

In Thread: EUR

I was just looking back in the Eurozone Core thread, and there is Catnip's prediction around 15 June. It didn't quite make it - 1.27 by end June, but the direction was surely right, and it might still get there.

However, the 2nd part of Catnip's prediction was that the focus would swing back to Europe and it would go down to 1.1.6 in July (more in line with Ashraf's original prediction).

So you could say that Ashraf was talking about the longer term, but Catnip correctly spotted the shorter term countertrend.

On gold - I too was fooled, but actually, we have seen some recent sharp drops and even some gold bulls have been warning of a sharp drop before the bull run resumes.

At the end of the day it is the trader's responsibility for what he or she trades and he or she should make their own analysis.

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 3, 2010 9:47

In Thread: Eurozone Core, USD Index & Swiss Knife

Well looking bck here, Catnip was the most accurate, although 1.27 by end June was not quite achieved. 1.27 may well yet be achieved though, although it was running out of steam by the end of Friday. I have to say that at the time I was sceptical about 1.27, but I have to doff my cap to you.
Now to see if the 2nd half of your prediction will come to pass - i.e. a drop to 1.16 in July.
I hope so!

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 2, 2010 22:55

In Thread: EUR

So, is 1.17-16 still Ashraf's long-term target, or has the game changed?

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Jul 2, 2010 22:53