اليوم، كما في سنة 2023 و2021 و2020، تزامنت مستويات الدعم الحاسمة في مؤشري أس أن بي 500 وناسداك مع نقطة التقاء المتوسط المتحرك لمدة 21 أسبوعًا والمتوسط المتحرك لمدة 100 يومToday, like in 2023, 2021 and 2020, crucial levels of support in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have coincided with the confluence point of the 21 week moving average and 100 day moving average. Watch now
My earlier doubts about the US economic outlook have softened some, but not much. I still see slowing in the US equity sector and while 10-year treasury yields continue to fall, I expect the long bond to outperform. For 2016, modest dollar appreciation appears likely against the Euro and commodity currencies. I’m long precious metals, the long bond, and utilities. Short US financials.
Until ongoing worries about the Yuan subside, macro data improves, and credit spreads narrow, I would imagine that asset allocation models should favor cash, fixed income, and currencies.
In addition to short-term trading of FX spot and crosses, how would you feel about allocating capital to the USD and Yen via the ETFs UUP and FXY?
When I posted my comment, I was referring to the business cycle (as opposed to current stock market fluctuations). The econometric data is certainly mixed, but by and large the US appears to have reached a cyclical peak and is in a contraction.
Simply stated, I see a US recession, based upon contractions in industrial production and trade, reductions in full-time employment, and reductions in real personal income.