Posts by "ptaczek"

There isn't any clear direction last 2-3 weeks in the markets. Or is there any? The outlook for EUR, USD or JPY is changing frequently or is it only me with such view? 90 minutes ago all cross/JPY pairs dropped. Does anybody knows why? Newswires are again full of in-fact-dont-know phrases like 'stops were tripped' etc. There is again more questions than answers. Dollar is weakening, risk is on and will probably be extended into the Asia trading. It almost looks like everybody (eu, us, uk, china, jp) are playing waiting game, hesitant to make a move. I mean, is there anybody with some sensible vision of the current situation here on this forum? Who is trading, what and how? :)

considering the steepness of the recent move up in both Gold and Silver, I don't think the Gold is going back below 1144 before close today. Also, since the Andrew Maguire revealed of JPM's techniques of precious metals market manipulation, there was no price takedowns or at least they were not so severe. So the question is, who's going to take the metals down now? Dollar index is basically nowhere today after making new high at 81.9. Yen is on the stronger side this week. Unless Bernanke talk up the USD today, the Gold is going to keep it's current levels.
Ashraf explained in today's IMT the POTENTIAL reasons for Gold going back down. So all I can see right now is very very mixed picture. I mean, the JPY should be weak, the USD strong, Gold should be somewhere below 1100. GBP is mixed, going sharply up and sharply down 100pips a day and only the EUR is performing as expected under the given context of Greece and potentially the Portugal.
There is something being cooked between US and China regarding Yuan flexibility. Geithner has been invited to China. So everything's slightly out of place in my view and Im very very curious about what will this and next week look like.

The Pound is now gaining against USD for 6th day in a straight tight upward channel - almost like made in laboratory. 1.500 level is 220pips behind us, elections ahead.
Yesterday's negative US ADP did not manage to take equities down so the dollar remains weak and the Yen continues selloff.
For me, the only 'hope' for stronger dollar is disappointing Friday's NFP and unemployment (equities down) as the perception of dollar is now undermined by worsening housing AND jobs. Therefore the dollar could strengthen as a safe haven IF the apparent risk appetite erode. Moreover, yesterday was the end of the Q1 and most price moves were distorted.
Precious metals are too stronger most likely due to the weaker dollar. Silver leads the way currently at 17.7.
I'd like to be on the sidelines but I have some badly placed shorts to manage. Good luck everyone.

hehe, nicely expressed. Lets see tomorrow's kiwi data for more direction.

Hello Ashraf, hope you had a refreshing weekend.

Looking at the VIX drop in february and the recent drop of Yen, appreciation of higher yielding currencies and firming stocks and commodities underpin by the last friday's after-NFP-party, do you think it could signal a carry trade buildup?

CFTC's COT shows a stunning increase of the net LONG Yen positions from 1,717 in the prior week to a whopping 32,552, which is a little confusing to me given the friday's JPY moooove. (Unless there is no carry buildup and the Yen is going up again in the short term.)
Also China's voice suggests a gradual appreciation of the Yuan which could imply slower growth and therefore less demand for commodities.

.pta.