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85 Posts Total by "rezz":
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Rezz
(Vancouver, Canada)
8 Posts by Anonymous "rezz":
 
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Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jan 23, 2014 20:52
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Immigrants are loving USDCAD above 1.10, Homes 10% cheaper for the RMB funded cash buyers! Mortgage lending rules were made strict last year and this has tempered house inflation. One thing with Canadian retailers is they look for any excuse to raise prices and now they have it with the exchange rate being as such! I wouldnt be surprised to see inflation ticking up in a few quarters once data comes out.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jan 10, 2014 17:54
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
In reply to DaveO's post
Thanks Dave.. its always tough to pick a bottom as you say. My call was based on the yield differential on Aussie and NZ 10 year bonds being only 40bps, and under 4% price difference over 10 year bonds which no longer justifies the relative valuation. In any case after todays poor NFP, deflation is still in play which can depress the short term NZD yield outlook. JPY crosses looking vulnerable after NFP
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jan 8, 2014 23:14
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
"This could be the hottest currency trade of 2014" - CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/101304920

With headlines like these its time for reversal esp with over aggressive rate hike forecasts on NZD that wont materialize fully ... AUDNZD safest to go long with 1.14 medium term target.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Sep 18, 2013 21:40
In Thread: GBP
GBP getting close to the possible 1.62 area call a while back from AL. I'd think after the BOE's vote last night and todays no taper that GBP will falter again once the specs flip back to longs. It was not long ago we had a 1.47 target being floated around here!!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Aug 21, 2013 4:25
In Thread: EUR
In reply to digi's post
The collapse is looking more imminent as there is little real gdp/capital growth that can be found in the west, outside just increasing transactions/consumption arising from population growth. Another take on this from economist Robert Gordon's and his TED talk on "death of innovation, the end of growth". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYHd7rpOTe8
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Aug 15, 2013 21:05
In Thread: EUR
In reply to merlyn2013's post
I think you need to take it easy on AL and educate yourself better. I have an MBA in finance, completed a PhD in a quant field etc ... but even I am humbled and learn stuff everyday in the markets during these wild swings. FX markets are driven by many factors but because of the high leverage used, positioning is key and so you have to respect the price action. There is always some logic to the moves in the short term!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Aug 7, 2013 21:11
In Thread: JPY
In reply to DaveO's post
Thanks Dave.. will be watching closely!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Aug 7, 2013 6:21
In Thread: JPY
Havent been active in jpy for a while, but it looks like USDJPY is eyeing the 92-93 area to me. Such a move together with a big figure S&P correction can give some buoyancy to the other currencies against the USD. Any thoughts from the Yen traders?
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jul 26, 2013 1:34
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
In reply to DaveO's post
DaveO I've read that the yields on longer dated NZD bonds have been getting better relative to aussie ones so that supports your view. I'm thinking more along mean reversion (to say a 4 year average) given that australia is NZD's biggest trade partner... also watching AUDUSD carefully and the 0.94 level which can be the trigger for short covering.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jul 24, 2013 22:19
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
AUDNZD testing multi year lows after NZD rate decision, around 1.1495 now. Shakeout looks to be near complete and looking for a several hundred pip reversal soon.
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