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85 Posts Total by "rezz":
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Rezz
(Vancouver, Canada)
8 Posts by Anonymous "rezz":
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Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 21:41
In Thread: EUR
chloe, I decided to be neutral on the Euro going into rate decision, and switch my short to NZD and AUD shorts. The EURUSD charts show more upside momentum and room to run even to 1.45 ish. On the other hand, Eur crosses against aussie and kiwi could go through rapid short covering in event of hike (plus narrowing rate differential should be supportive at least in short run), which i believe will limit losses on my AUDUSD or NZDUSD shorts. In event that market sells off, well I expect all risk trades to come off.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 19:54
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
To put things in perspective, in 2-3 weeks the Aussie has gained +7.67% ( 0.9705 - 1.0450), and the Kiwi has gained +8.77% (.7120 to .7805). These are typically % changes that takes months to build up. Dont know what else to call it other than speculative stop hunting by big money hoping for a quick liquidity crunch just as in what happened with USDJPY, or even the flash crash last year when the USD strengthened very rapidly (reverse of current situation).
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 1:32
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
With so much already priced into the Euro regarding rate hikes, I wonder if we will be having one of those "buy the rumor, sell the news events" come post ECB.
I'd think that if the ECB rate hike goes through, it may cause a selloff in equities & commodities. Whether it continues to be a positive for the Euro (considering 75bps are priced in for the year) I dont know, but it seems that the commodity currencies might have more to loose on an ECB rate hike, if some speculative money gets out of commodities.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 6:29
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
When the NZDUSD is outperforming the Aussie in the last 2 days you know something isnt quite right, considering the 50bp rate cut in Newzealand.. All the more reasons this rally looks like extreme short covering to me... after probably (high volume) new shorts were established on the last leg down, immediately after the japan quake. Otherwise the fundamentals of New zealand (or aussie) havent suddenly improved post japan quake to have it back around 0.77. Anyone has any other insights?
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Mar 28, 2011 8:02
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
chloe, i am not sure if fundamentals are whats keeping the AUDUSD at these elevated levels, but I am surprised it didnt maintain the dropping trendlines below 1.010 ish considering it had broken major support at 0.98 earlier, which should be a bearish signal. The market wants to frustrate the weak hands before a major reversal, but thats just my opinion.
I calculate a 5.7% gain from the 0.974 area to 1.0295 without much correction which is very odd. Even the canadian dollar which had more reason to stay high with high oil, hasnt gone above its earlier highs in such a fashion. So i have feeling that the AudUsd rise is because of 1) volume being very light, and 2) many longs in EURAUD closing positions.. the chart from 1.425 to 1.3690 is telling somehow.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Mar 20, 2011 1:56
In Thread: EUR
Any thoughts on the Euro, considering todays military action over Libya mainly by France and the UK. No matter what you call it, a war has started which should carry some geopolitical risk.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 5:22
In Thread: JPY
Sorry meant to say: "Is it new capital going long USDJPY, Not long Yen!
Rezz
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 18, 2011 5:21
In Thread: JPY
If the Yen corrected back up with such rigor without the the central banks putting money to work, then the question is: Is it new capital going long Yen, or is it the speculators going for the exits and unwinding positions that were not part of a carry trade!!
Ironic that everyone was blaming the retail investors who were supposedly unwinding their positions to fund their construction projects back home. Well did they change their minds and go back to long US dollars!! I think not.
This just proves that Hedge funds are quite nasty.. preying on the japanese in light of what happened. Lost my respect for them.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Feb 24, 2011 23:36
In Thread: EUR
The Irish apparently have an election tomorrow which can bring uncertainty to Euro. I would be surprised if the EURUSD closed near highs heading into weekend, as there likely will be some profit taking during late Asia/European session
Conclusion: not a good time to trade long based on breakout of recent range above 1.38!!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2011 2:05
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
One thing I noticed is that the 2010 GDP of Australia as stated by the IMF is $1.2T in nominal terms, and $0.88T in Purchasing Power parity terms. Relative to the US, Australians obviously have to pay more for the same services, goods etc..
So here is a question for any Australian.
Are wages in Australia growing faster than inflation at the moment? I would assume that imports would be cheaper with the strong aussie, so unless the labour market is tight and wages are going up, then not sure how the Aussie should remain strong. A country that comes to mind with a strong currency and ridiculously high prices is Switzerland, but then the incomes over there are really high...
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