Forum - JPY (Topic)

Ashraf Laidi

UK

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Mar 18, 2011 7:40

What about EURJPY?

With Japan announcing joined intervention mainly to support USDJPY, it is worth looking at EURJPY. EURUSD is finally responding positively to the intervention (as predicted in prior IMT) nearing 1.4070s and potentially onto the 1.4120s target. The KEY QUESTION NOW, is whether the unfolding risk appetite in FX resulting from intervention will kick into a sustainable bounce in equities and prevent key US indices from closing below their 55-day MAs. Recall, EURJPY longs was among the top 6 trades selected in my Jan 23 seminar and Workbook presented at last months Traders Expo in NY. The rationale of that trade was based on an improving likelihood for EURJPY to breakout of its 12-month 106-115 consolidation, with a hawkish ECB and post-fiscal year yen weakness.

AUDUSD faces pressure at the 0.9980 trendline, USDCAD vulnerable 0.9760 and USDCHF capped at 0.9130.

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Ashraf

Rezz

Vancouver, Canada

Posts: 53

13 years ago

Mar 18, 2011 5:22

Sorry meant to say: "Is it new capital going long USDJPY, Not long Yen!

Rezz

Canada

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Mar 18, 2011 5:21

If the Yen corrected back up with such rigor without the the central banks putting money to work, then the question is: Is it new capital going long Yen, or is it the speculators going for the exits and unwinding positions that were not part of a carry trade!!
Ironic that everyone was blaming the retail investors who were supposedly unwinding their positions to fund their construction projects back home. Well did they change their minds and go back to long US dollars!! I think not.
This just proves that Hedge funds are quite nasty.. preying on the japanese in light of what happened. Lost my respect for them.

Xaron

Munich, Germany

Posts: 528

13 years ago

Mar 18, 2011 4:37

Now my longs from 79, 78 and 77 look very good. I said it once, you must buy when panic is there and everyone wants to get out. Of course you have to play low leverage...

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Mar 18, 2011 0:41

COORDINATED INTERVENTION ANNOUNCED

G7 says will mount a coordinated intervention to stabilize the yen for the first time since 2000 (when G7 intervened in concert to support euro). USDJPY jumps 200pips to 81.28, along al other yen pairs, potentially eyeing 82.30. EURUSD and GBPUSD are in fact falling despite the shot in the arm to global equities as Nikkei rallies 3.2%. The fact that AUD and CAD are rallying vs. USD reflects the sharp move towards risk assets/currencies. This helps confirm EURUSD to find support above 1.3980s before it is expected to extend gains towards 1.4060 and 1.41. USDCHF sharply reverses its losses to rally 100 pips to 0.9080s.

Ashraf

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

13 years ago

Mar 17, 2011 19:37

Very wise Chloe !

chloethebull

halifax, Canada

Posts: 1183

13 years ago

Mar 17, 2011 19:14

thanks ashraf for the explanation..im not willing to play usdjpy...instead ive been sticking with eur$ and gbpusd ..i;ll wait for u and other forum members to give us direction with the $jpy..again thanks :)

Ganja

United States

Posts: 278

13 years ago

Mar 17, 2011 19:07

nimble and tolerate and account size all terms to be defined, of course...

Ganja

United States

Posts: 278

13 years ago

Mar 17, 2011 19:03

AL..dat good stuff.

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Mar 17, 2011 18:52

Chloe, go back to September when they intervened. It was a surprise and of course ALL Yen crosses went up, including USDJPY, but USDJPY failed to take out key MAs.

I think stocks may rise a bit if there is COORDINATED intervention because that would show that wold econ powers are woirking together to relieve Japan of further damage. If Japan does interevne ALONE, then that would be short-lived.

You must look BEYOND the intervention. If you are short USDJPY, then your account must tolerate 81-82. If you are long USDJPY, then should see key support near 75.50s. REGARDLESS, you must be nimble.

As I said before, AUDUSD and EURUSD remain the more dependable of pairs.

Ashraf