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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 8:31
ECB must leave deposit rate unaffected or even reduce "official" deposit rate ( the actual is zero anyway) thus fund rate hike does NOT quell inflation.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 7:49
What if really Spain and Portugal by applying for all-european assistance at the last minute MADE a deal with the ECB for no hike?

Just a thought...
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 7:10
Yesterday in Swiss TV an SNB official said a couple of interesting stuff:
a:SNB is VERY interested in ECB HIKES (!) and will follow ECB raising rates.
b: Portuguese banks and spanisch cajas will see mounting defaults of private and commercial
mortgages if rate is hiked by even 25 bp
(in other words Spain is next candidate for huge bank bailouts?)
c: German construction so far balooned by ultra low mortgage rates will be significantly tempered

Basically the official said for SNB ECB hike is just what SNB wants but lethal for weak Ezone peripherals or its their Euro but not our problem
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 6:55
ECB SCENARIOS By GG of AshrafLaidi.com Staff:

Turning to the UPCOMING ECB DECISION, it appears the euro rally has priced the expected 25bp rate hike to perfection. Obviously, decision to keep rates unchanged - not entirely out of the question given that the ECB's "strong vigilance" signal DID NOT have a 100% track record as a predictor of a tightening - would result in severe EUR damage. Even a 25bp hike may see some "sell-the-news" weakness. Instead, the focus will be on the 8:30ET press conference by President Trichet. Today's WSJ offers a terrific "playbook" of possibilities: The most bullish scenario would be another reference to "strong vigilance", indicating another rate hike in May. If the ECB pledges to monitor inflation "very closely", history suggests the next policy move is 2 months removed. The most dovish scenario is "monitor closely", implying at least 3 meetings before another rate hike. Beyond today's high around $1.4350, 78.6% retracement of the late 2009 swoon around $1.4440 looms as the next area of resistance.

By GG - AshrafLaidi.com Staff

Ashraf
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 2:06
with all the hype going into the ecb&boe decision..we might see a very muted reaction..which is what i find happens with volitile events that have lots of exposure or better yet over exposure...its often the events that i call the chinese curveball(a phrase i used when china was in the center of attention)that bring the most explosive volitility so expect 1 of these event to add bigger moves up/down or risk on/off.i wonder what will come out u don;t have to look to far for such an event..lol..ok gl/gt:)
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 22:54
ive been short for awhile but always stoped out ..latest short @1.4250 and i didn;t use a stop this time :(..yeah i kinda trade the new similar to u daveo..ive found theres seems to be a direction lag when news comes out usually giving me a chance to add or get out..or i see a fake out tothe news which it usually reverses..im pretty good at trading the news when its released my problem lies with irational reaction to news..my common sence kicks in and prevents me from acting accordingly:(..but there was 2x in the last mth that costed me, the first was when eur was trading just under 1.40 ahead of the japan intevention eur lagged for 10 min while the rest rallied so i thought eur was faking out and heading lower only to gap up and catch up that hurt cause i was expecting resis points to hold in which the never held..then the other was last weekwhen pigs were gettn hit with downgrades+neg data i walked away thinkn trades were good go only to hear after the dudley comments lol:(..ok guys gl/gt:)
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 22:18
8.30 trichet will speak...
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 22:13
7 boe
7.45 ecb
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 22:09
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/it-is-now-mathematically-impossible-to-pay-off-the-u-s-national-debt
Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 22:02
what time tomorrow est? tia

rummed up
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