EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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Very interesting to read your sentiments on the mid/longer term outlook and thanks for taking the time to put them down.
Re. JPY - I don't think the Fin Min's comments were any big surprise and the reaction was partly the market looking for an excuse to take the current move further ("baked in" as you say). There aren't too many governments praying that their currency strengthens in the current economic climate - so what else was the Fin Min going to say?
I'm not in the short term trading these days as too busy at work and one needs to have the right frame of mind to keep the discipline. Good luck though and well done on the last ride.
Your last para. The stock market rally since March has developed into an impressive and extended rising wedge and the RSI is clearly diverging bearishly and volume and momentum have been falling steadily so I don't think any observer would be surprised at a sell off - but these things have a habit of running longer than we think before the inevitable happens.
After the present major USD/JPY up move completes where do you feel that the down move will finish? Talking daily/weekly charts ... Look forwrd to hearing your thoughts on that in the morning - it's 0100 hrs here!
BTW - I'd be interested to hear what Ashraf thinks about which currency is likely to fare best in the event of a marked stockmarket drop (USD, or JPY, or alternating - or some other currency ...?).
Nite All.
I know there is a danger of finding egg all over my face when they stop behaving like that and I fail to notice, but it's been a great day so far! (Also made a bit out of USD/JPY and AUD/JPY).
I'm a bit broken hearted about AUD/USD apparently topping out. I thought that pair would just run and run. (Fundamentally, it ought to!). Can't quite bring myself to short it though.
Not yet anyway.
93.85 and a little above.
if u want ot short usd yen wait for target of 93.80-85
Thanks for asking. As of now I am flat. I presume 93.50 may hold some level of support as this is where the stops were which just got ran, and also is the 200-day MA. Although I took the ride for most of the usd.jpy ride on Finance Minister Kan's comments, part of me believes some of his rhetoric had to be baked in already on the pre-runnup of usd.jpy. Therefore I am cautious on this pair for right now.
I've placed some limit orders at 93.07 and leading into 92.80. Ashraf wrote he thought 92.80 was a possibility pre-NFP. We'll just have to see what happens in Asian and European sessions. I am hoping more for a 50 pip run-up in eur.usd and 20/25 in aud.usd and nzd.usd so I can short them. I've also placed a limit order $3.50 higher on Gold.
It appears usd has gathered up some momentum in anticipation of a "good" NFP. I put that in quotes because the report will suck, it just depends on how it is relative to expecation. I am bullish usd short-term, but bearish mid-to-long term as I do NOT believe the Fed will have the you know whats to raise interest rates until very late this year, if not next year. The assumption of a US turnaround is based on the stock market rally which is ridiculous. The market has rallied in excess of 40% of hope and belief. The rally is about to end which should be positive for usd. Personally I think the economic story does not het any "better" than it is now, and will deteriorate again, all usd positive.
What are your thoughts on where a USD/JPY pullback will finish (when it starts). Also your thoughts on EUR/JPY would be interesting ... next major move up or down?
I saw your post earlier. Please confirm the numbers. I think you are writing 93.85 but actually mean 92.85.
Please confirm.
Thanks.
BTW, it appears the Eur PPT (Soverign Entities) has finally thrown in the towel here supporting eur.usd at 1.4300. Their Boy Toy eur.gbp which they have been using to goose eur.usd and run out the short's stops has no life left in it at .8975. I am wondering if they are going t make one last stand in the European session later today, and run more stops before the official coronation of eur.usd at 1.42 and below occurs at 5:30 new york time tomorrow with the NFP.
Good trading everyone.
thats my opinion
when yen reaches 92.37 wait for a pullback at 93.18-13 to initiate a long position
actually it trades at 93.71; that is a wabe three of wave 5 . i expect a pullback around 93.85
actually iamnot trading