More Euro Losses Ahead

Ashraf 1.38 this quarter and maybe even 1.30? Wow, that's a tough call. Technically the chart looks like this, yes, but in my opinion the fundamentals play their role here and 2010 might become very, very ugly for the US in my opinion...

What you must all understand is the U.S. Authorities will not permit their beloved stock market to be negative even ONE day. You notice how when discusiion of stock market, all you hear about is economic recovery. Then they turn around and stone Usd on poor NFP.

Hi Ashraf,

I am in a learning mode and you book has been quite helpful along with your commentary here.
my simplistic view is that dollar would appreciate when a flood of foreign money moves into the US. this i do not see happening due to structural problems in the US economy - mainly permanent job losses that have moved work over to china and india leaving middle class americans to work at walmart. unless there is a huge new industry developing out of the US in renewables or health care etc, the US economy will fail to fully recover from the housing crisis.

short term, i give most value to cftc weekly long short positions and these are short euro by 6.5 B$ / around 36000 contracts. But i think this will shrink this week after the recent jobs report.

where do u you see the euro dollar in 3 months and 12 months? i think u mentioned 1.38 for 3 months........what about 12 months?
from different sources like scotia / danske / mellon, i would think it would be around 1.50 in three months and maybe 1.40 in a year time.

all of us here appreciate your free commentory by the way........
j

The title of this forum should be "No More Euro Losses Ahead".

1.4530 and ripping higher...