JPY

Juke: Try this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE0hyX4J8IU

Or try You Tube search for "Ashraf Laidi looks ahead to Ben Bernanke's speech later this afternoon"

Somehow I cannot access to the link: Bernanke Video Previewhttp://bit.ly/9CXYiZ.
What are his main messages?

@AVG: make sure you watch Ashraf's Bernanke preview video (as per his Tweet):

Bernanke Video Previewhttp://bit.ly/9CXYiZ

@taniral, here's my amateur analysis on USDJPY. At first sign of credit crisis of Dubai before the thanks-giving in the US (last November), USDJPY nose-dived below 85, hitting the lowest in some 14 or so years. Since November last year, credit risks have gone beyond Dubai, spread into PIGS, etc. Risk aversion now dominates the sentiments. Can we see another 84 before BOJ would intervene? That might sound extreme, but, it wasn't long when we saw these levels. Could Fitch downgrade, and if Moody's & S&P follow suit, could trigger the sharp strengthening of JPY? Maybe a step at a time. I been short at 92, 91.50, and now I have closed out with profits. I am watching a break below 90 to take this into 88 levels or a short relief rally as opportunities for more shorts. I would love to get views from experts in this forum. Callum

@Amg: Yes, it does on the face of it, although one might also say that it looks as though it is beginning to flatten out a bit, no?

Back to fundamentals for a minute, Ashraf has said many times that USD and JPY are the "risk-aversion" currencies, and they seem to take it in turns to benefit from a risk-aversion phase. I am sure that Ashra has given us hints and information in the past as to which is most likely to benefit at any given time (a lot of possible factors to consider), but I can't say I have this down. He has said recently that he will cover this ("risk differentiation") in his 1-day course in March (which sadly I won't be able to make). Anyway, whatever the factors are, I suppose that ultimately, it should be the fundamental factors that will determine whether the USD or the JPY gets the best of it, and whether that trend will continue, consolidate, or reverse. It certainly looks as though in general, the Yen has been getting the best of it, but on the other hand, we know that the last year or so has been tough for the dollar generally.until the recent rally.