Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Nathan,

You already prob' knew this but if a country increases interest rates, as predicted or surprisingly it is beneficial to the currency of that country - Guys put me straight if I am wrong. ta

does anyone have a view whether the RBNZ will raise the rate tomorrow? the general view is that they will keep them on hold this time, and if they do a surprise hike then should the kiwi rally against all?

@newpip - tough call. I think most of those here that are playing USDCAD are long. As you are aware, this pair has a tendency to trade inversely to the direction of oil as Canada is dependent on oil exports, therefore the "loonie" (the CAD part of USDCAD) is typically oil dependent.

However, there is a belief, which I do not share, that the BOC will rais einterest rates before the FED will. Unlike the RBA and there nonstop manipulation higher of their local currency AUD, the BOC often bemoans a strong loonie, and therefore would prefer a higher uSDCAD.

However, some analysts are now calling for parity on this pair as the Canadian economy is in far better shape that the U.S. counterpart. 1.2000 is vitally crucial support level for this pair.

What I have found very odd is the trading pattern of this pair the last few days. There is also short-term critical resistance around 1.0295/1.3005. Everytime this pair even takes a sniff in this direction, it gets beaten down immediately 15 pips, which it takes hours to recover.

How come someone isn't out screaming like the Greeks that there are speculators trying to drive this pair to parity, like their are manipulators, RBA, trying to drive AUDUSD to parity.

Your ranges are accurate. Clear break above 1.0310 and this pair will fly towards 1.040. The RBA knows this, and also knows higher prices in USDCAD tend to mean lower prices in AUD USD. So who is continuously hitting the offer on USD CAD?

usd/cad big break will be the 1.02 if it breaks it will be a cliff to .99 but if it could hold 1.02-25 you will see 1.0425 in no time. i suggest take half profit at 1.0230-40 and move to break even at that point

Pipped,

Compared to you, I don't have a clue when it comes to the markets, but I've just shorted the USD/CAD. I get a feeling you wanting this to go up.....Am I wrong on my trade.

I see it in a range with a top of 1.0292 and bottom of 1.0261. What do you think and others obviously - thanks