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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 9:02
hopefully you are right ING - I am getting less confident as European equities are rising
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 8:41
nzvik, yes it held, but since 17.3. there were lower lows,lower highs, possible H&S on H4 being formed, fibo (,9250-,9083) 50 & 61,8(possible again) to be pulled back from...,
But the rally in commodities and equities would change my mind, or break of 9210...
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 8:28
ING - 9100 held yesterday so can hold again - will depend how equities play out. However, the AUDUSD ATR on the daily charts is at an annual low- signalling that volatility (hopefully downside) is just round the corner.
Betting against the Aussie over the last year has been a difficult game to play.

INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 7:55
nzvik..
I think that yesterdays short-lived break of 0,9100 could be a good hint that this level is about to be broken..maybe as far as 0,9040..
But to be honest, it seems to me not so willing to fall rifht now, hovering in these 0,9150/60 levels..

we ll see...
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 7:47
With you on this INGbalek - but in from 9162 - will get out of trade if it does not take out 9100 by US close today. Needs to break 9100 to confirm bearish structure. If it does, I plan to bring SL to 9190 (high of yesterday)

If it takes out 9250 on the upside then the bullish structure from Feb 5 continues with further gains - in my opinion.

GL
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 7:13
nzvik..
I agree..Im in that trade since yesterdays touch of 0,9175!
but sl is a bit higher at 0,9280
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 1:56
Aussie is at crossroads - could go either way dependent on risk environment. My bias at this stage is downwards, may short before Europe open with a stop at 9250
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 22, 2010 6:54
Fatspips, yes indeed, CADJPY fails 90 just like AUDJPY fails 85.50 and NZDJPY failed 65. we dhave to see positive YEN dynamics dragging CADJPY as it is unlikely to see any considerable selloff in CAD. Short of any FX jawboning from Canada, it will be hard for CAD to start falling aross the board. help needed from rising JPY such as negative equities and/or china rate hike. COnsider shorting CADJPY while shorting AUDCAD.

Ashraf
fastpips
surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
15 years ago
Mar 22, 2010 6:15
Hi Ashraf!
What do you think about cad jpy. Even after good numbers from Canada, the pair had problems breaking the 90ish resistance. Do you see a decent drop in coming weeks. Thanks
Samso
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 20, 2010 20:49
Chloe,

It is both imminent & overdue that across the board face a correction.

VIX: Huge volumes of option have been placed for the VIX to be around 20/21 next month, meaning that the market is expecting volatility (possibly on the downside).

India rates: Yesterday's interest raise was only a precursor to an even bigger rate increase during RBI's meeting scheduled for next month. This increase was unexpected, and out of desperation to curtail inflation...otherwise, the REAL increase was, & is, expected for next month. And w/ Australia & Malaysia having already increased rates, and China expected to follow suit, it's timber...ESP/ for commodities!

US rates: Am I correct in stating that the US is also expected to increase interest rate next week? No wonder the USD closed stronger. Another sign that gold & oil will struggle in the coming weeks.

Good that you banked the profits over the w/end...but no real reason to stay away, esp/ from commodities. Oil, I expect & hope, will be trading even lower this time next week, so the risk (& return!) is all for you to take...


Asad
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