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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 19:40
I always enjoy reading your posts and analysis, catnip.

The USD does indeed look like it will fail the trendline as it is now under the 50day EMA for the majority of this day, but I also view this as a great opportunity for an explosive USD rally catching many by surprise off what appears to be vulnerable support.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 18:21
Don't think so , at least not now. Look at the huge excess reserves banks are sitting on. All that liquidity
FED created sits there. Possibly some USD trillion. FED laments banks are not lending. In fact as the spreads tell, available credit shrinks. What would happen if banks would suddenly start lending? Inflation. What happens if the FED raises interest thus paying the banks more interest?
The banks won't lend. So what keeps the USD up? Recession. And deflation. It is all written well not in holy textbooks but in Uncle Scrooge comics. In order to keep value of fiat money up it must be stored in a money tank and stay there. Keep jobs scarce and payment low.
This is why I never trade indices. I know there has to be some balance or a sweet spot between deflation and inflation. Given the huge excess liquidity from quantitative easing sitting on bank balance sheets the scale clearly tilts to deflation and USDx consequently towards 85. Neither FED nor US Tsy could want a quick recovery they are planning recovery in a decade. USDx will keep weak vs commodity currencies as long as China piles up commodities. But not longer.
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 17:52
the euro problems (piigs), Britain nearly bust, China threating to tighten, comdols too high, swiss trying to devalue currency, oil pulling back. This all points to a higher dollar according to the expert opinion over the last two months. Ha please stop, my sides are acheing with laughter. The usd is going only one way and thats DOWN !
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:22
I don't expect that to happen. Will be a big disappointment...
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:17
50 day EMA on a daily timeframe, I'm showing 80.3517
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:17
It's arguable if this is a trendline break because the USD is still bouncing off the 50 day EMA which is slightly below a perfect trendline, but close enough to make one question if that trendline is indeed broken or not. If the 50 day EMA fails as support and subsequently acts as near-term resistance, then I will be convinced the uptrend is at a pause.

But there have been rumors that Bernanke would discuss the possibilty of removing the "extended period" language. These of course are unsubstantiated rumors but today is a huge day in terms of CPI and Bernanke speak. I am hyped!

INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:14
retail sales:
The Commerce Department’s sales report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ estimates ranged from gains of 0.5 percent to 2.1 percent.
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 12:54
if that break isnt faked one,,maybe the threat of more usd weakness is intact,..

thats why I m asking, or finding out everyones opinion of usd move in aproximately 2 weeks.>!!

my take ist that usd weaker just a bit,,eur above 1,37, gbp(i dont know:-)), aud up, nzd up, and vs jpy (i dont know)
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 12:17
Neither am I a technician and yes that line is indeed a broken one :)
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 11:56
I'm not much of a technician (as mentioned several times), but that trend line looks kind of broken doesn't it?