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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 7, 2009 23:41
Comments: 50
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Golden Chance from FX-Equity Play

When FX lead equities
 
 
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taha
Egypt
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 9, 2009 18:15
Hi Ashraf ,
I would like to know your expectation about the performance of Gbp/Usd for the rest of this month .
Taha
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 22:32
f, good question about CHF. there's no known reason, except for unwinding of yesterday's losses which were driven by SNB comments.

Taha, i think it's time to take profits as we near the 200day MA in Dow and S&P500.. These fast gains are rare and must realize them during a recession.

Rob, this was a rare day of broad dollar decline. ATT buying most of Verizon's divestitures also helped boost stocks. seems like we're of to the races to test those 200day MAs.

Correction looming and economy still weak. and as banks raise capital, value per share will be diluted as they issue more shares.

PK, OK.

Ashraf
PK
New Jersey , United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 19:50
Financial Advisors and mutual managers need to get long this market or risk losing clients or their job. This will keep upward pressure on the equity markets. Don't you think Ashraf? I also see a lot of the emerging market equity charts in clear uptrends. I woudn't be short this market.
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 19:25
Ashraf , I am wondering like Rob . Why the experts are sure that the stocks will go down again ? . I mean the S&P earnings are better than expected , stress tests are positive , most economic news for this month are good .
IS the expected down because it is just correction or what ??? .
Taha .
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 18:52
Hey Ashraf,

No, I wasn't referring to the "downtrend line resistance..." - but thanks for mentioning that. Interesting article about Grantham, let's hope that possible "freefall leg" he mentioned comes soon, for all of those with risk aversion trades in place. Seems like the Dollar is getting crushed across the board, but the Yen seems to be holding up (at least better than the Dollar). I'm just still wondering what it will take for stocks to go down, considering the stress tests and unemployment numbers were very well received. Have a great weekend!
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 18:17
Hi Ashraf ,
some experts see that it is time to take profits in equities and some others see that the rally will go 25% from these levels . What is your comment ? .
Taha
f
Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 18:11
Hello Ashraf,

what is your take on what is happening with CHF... strong against EUR.USD.CAD all at the same time?!?!

And more specifically EUF.CHF... Thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 16:56
Btw, if anybody still believes in the 2-mth cycle, today marks exactly the end of the 8 week cycle from March 6, when S&P500 bottomed 666

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 16:47
Hi Rob,

Do you mean the downtrend line resistance from the 1.60 high thru the 1.47 high? Yes, this would be a good time to short it. Good luck in that ! but I prefer selling Kiwi vs yen, or Aud vs Kiwi.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
May 8, 2009 16:39
Hey Ashraf,

Very nice analysis - both technically and fundamentally, for equities, currencies, and metals. Considering the above info about the EUR/USD 200-day MA, would you agree that this a great time to short EUR/USD and pretty much be at the top of a downward channel emerging? I suppose we could say that about all the risk appetite trades though, esp. EUR/JPY and all Yen crosses - if in fact this is really the end of the bear market rally. Took your advice and shorted NZD/JPY - thanks!
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