USD

Fate is real Jobs Report still a Fake, Bojan trust me its only gonna get better!!! i mean the laughs.....


Few things Catching my eye do check them for yourself to have a better outlook. Much of the data im looking at is m/m and y/y

Initial Claims ICSA > down
Initial weekly claims have come down, but have recently flatlined. ( can only mean a pull back )

Median Duration of Unemployment (UEMPMED) >up
The length of time the average person is unemployed continues to surge. (highest eveeeeeeR!!! Over 21 weeks now)

Civilians Unemployed for 27 weeks and Over (UEMP27OV) > up
The number of unemployed for a super long time is still a vertical line (again way way up high)

Civilian Employment-Population Ration (EMRATIO) > up slightly from a fall deeper then 1930's recession
The truest measure of employment, the civilian employment-population ratio is near its lows. (Very worrying)

Gov Hiring (USGOVT)
Government hasn't dipped at all over hundred years, never has stopped rising ever.

Financial Activity (USFIRE)
Financial services down, but not that much. But still interesting to see this, it might be an interesting chapter in my book 10 years from now :)Another perspective the recent recovery in financial services jobs, due to; guess what? YEs Thanks bailout!

Durable Good Manufacturing (DMANEMP)
Durable goods manufacturing jobs on the widest decline. But it seems less workers are churning high productivity recently show in PMI's. (Something seems to be working, still i wonder for how long.)

Natural Resources and Mining (USMINE)
Natural resources bumping up a little, but still way off old highs. Deepwater will probably help continue the down trend. Thanks mother earth for continuously feeding our insane greed. ( it was worth a mention)

Overtime: Manufacturing (AWOTMAN)
But at least manufacturing workers are starting to get some overtime again. (but consumer still not spending)

and finally population still growing.............


Most Americans know that the U.S. economy is in bad shape, but what most Americans don't know is how truly desperate the financial situation of the United States really is. The truth is that what we are experiencing is not simply a "downturn" or a "recession". What we are witnessing is the beginning of the end for the greatest economic machine that the world has ever seen.

Total government, corporate and personal debt has now reached 360 percent of GDP, which is far higher than it ever reached during the Great Depression era. A great day of financial reckoning is fast approaching, and the vast majority of Americans are totally oblivious. But the truth is that you cannot defy the financial laws of the universe forever. What goes up must come down. The borrower is the servant of the lender. Cutting corners always catches up with you in the end. Sometimes it takes cold, hard numbers for many of us to fully realize the situation that we are facing.

Heres some interesting facts for you read it here .... http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-worldwide-finances-global-debt-bomb.html

will usdjpy reach 93.60 ?

US growth of 3-4% is supported by the massive stimulus package of 2009. Minus this stimulus, and US and Eurozone have same growth levels of below 1%. I checked recovery.gov to see how much of the stimulus money is left and it looks like half of it is spend while the other half is still there implying that stimulus support for the US economy will remain till early 2011. So, the US growth rate of 3%+ should stay till Q1 2011 and by that time the private sector may pick up some slack.

The US and Eurozone - ala Germany are going in two separate directions. The US does not want the 30s and is injecting masive stimulus to revive growth in the meanwhile taking huge debt. At the same time, the Germans are actually trying to balance their budget and cut any amount of deficit and forcing other Eurozone countries in this direction.

Is the below 1% growth and budget cuts a more pragmatic approach or is the US style debt based growth of 3% more practical? It remains to be seen whether the US economy will eventually recover minus the stimulus or the German and IMF style budget cuts and stagnation will lead to improvement.

What the Germans target is price stability. The old generation does not want to loose its savings and it hates inflation. What the US targets is growth and inflation that leads to expansion locally and globally.

Bond holders have played a key role in forcing PIGS to cut their deficits. However, if Germans and the ECB were more flexible, the Greek situation would not have deteriorated so much. This clearly shows Europeon reluctance for any long term cohesion in fiscal policies.

On the other side, how long will the Bond investors keep buying the US treasuries? Minus the fear factor and available options in BRICs etc, would these investments shrink resulting in increase of yields and fall of the Dollar?
As long as the US 3%+ growth exsits, it appears that the apetite for US paper will survive and dollar will continue to rise. I think the next milestone is what happens when the stimulus ends - summer of 2011.

For the Eurozone, 20% devaluation on the Euro has already arrived. At par to Dollar, the Eurozone will be pretty competitive. So, maybe thats what the Germans are getting at - not taking debt but with currency devaluation by markets, a regain of competitive edge. Thats a long, hard road to take but it allows for more flexibility down the road.

Meanwhile, the US beleives it can avoid the fate of the Japanease and the 2nd stimulus will not be needed. I think thats a mistake. There is a permanent loss of jobs to the Indian and Chinease and the US can only get out of this with a weak dollar and change in its market structures.

Hawks spread their wings
June 3, 2010 11:36pmby Simone Baribeau | Share
Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas Fed, fully spread his hawkish wings today. In a speech titled the high cost of exceptionally low rates, he called for the Federal Reserve to raise rates to 1 per cent from near zero by the end of the summer.

I have no illusions about the challenges of moving away from zero. But in my judgment, the process should begin sooner to avoid the danger of having to over compensate later, as so often happens in policy.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, didnt go as far as Mr Hoenig, but took a step toward signaling he would be willing to consider removing the Feds extended period pledge. The time is approaching when it will be appropriate to consider recalibrating interest rate policy, he said, but he did not think that that time has yet arrived.

So is the committee becoming more hawkish or are the hawks flying away from the committee?

At least Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke seems to be keeping a dovish air about him.

In a speech today on small business lending he didnt mention monetary tightening timing, but he did worry aloud about the effects of joblessness.

One particularly difficult issue is the continued high rate of unemployment. High unemployment imposes heavy costs on workers and their families, as well as on our society as a whole, he said.

I dont call myself a good analyst just a keen observer, but does any one see's a double or triple top forming on DX (dollar index).

@Ashraf would liket o hear your comments on Dollar index, while most pairs are getting sluggish. Recent activity in dollar index suggests continued failure above 8750 seem like "a new trend in formation" although this will be more visible at weeks end. But what are your thought on Dollar index being sustainable above 8750 and a continuation or 89!!!! >>>>>>>> Plus, please give me some indication towards to employment number in your view this coming friday.