Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:
GBP
Discuss GBP
I think the expected bull trap is close to be ready.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/06/no_more_money.html
(The BBC3 programme he refers to has gone out, but can be caught for those in the UK on iPlayer).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/06/bad_news_is_good_news.html
Morgan Stanley: Get Ready To Bottom Pick European Stocks
In their latest Strategy Forum, Morgan Stanley shows how European stock valuations are now lower then their 2003 trough. At the same time, the VIX, an (imperfect) inverse-indicator of sentiment is near past peak-levels.
Morgan Stanley's Graham Secker:
The 12-month forward P/E in Europe is now below 10X, much lower than the 16-17X reached in 1998 and compared with the long-run average of 14X. The trailing dividend yield is now 3.5%, compared with the 3.3% yield on a euro-weighted government bond. In terms of sentiment, the recent spike in the VIX was exactly what we saw in 1998. The AAII reading was recently at -21, versus the -22 trough n 1998. The put/call ratio recently peaked at 1.5, higher than the 1.3 reached in 1998.
...
The issue for us right now is that many key leading indicators are still at very high levels, meaning that the equity correction has happened sooner than in past cycles. Thus, markets may struggle in coming months as these indicators do begin to roll over. Then, once we start to get more clarity that the global economic recovery is actually sustainable, we would expect markets to rally quite hard.
He is expected to say the UK's economic problems are "even worse than we thought" as he sets out why he believes "painful" cuts are necessary.
In a speech he will say how the 156bn deficit is tackled will affect "our whole way of life".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/politics/10250603.stm#skip_feature_02
Ashraf