Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:27
Comments: 55
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

US EU Bond Yield Spreads

Rather than simply comparing currencies' overnight interest rates, FX traders pay close attention to differentials in 10-year yields for the market's assessment of longer term interest/inflation rate horizons. The relationship is straight forward.
 
Arms
shanghai, China
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Nov 14, 2010 5:03
Good day! Ashraf,I listened to your wonderful lecture last time in shanghai. When will you revisit us?

I am very pressed to see perfect negative correlation in the 2 charts. Did you fist post this article on August 20, 2008 ET? Why does the 1st chart ended in May 2009?

How could we compile the US EURO bonds spead curve ? I mean where to get the data source

Thanks a lot and have a good day! lol

Arms
Saka
China
Posts: 29
14 years ago
Jul 22, 2010 10:43
Thanks, Ashraf

But the more I have learnt, the more difficult to judge whether to trade. I have been trading FX for 3 years, I don't know how long I could be a professional trader?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jul 20, 2010 15:28
Saka, yes improving yield differentials in favour of German to help EURUSD for as long as the move is considerabl as is the case over the past 4 weeks and when it is supported by changing policy dynamics; in this case, eroding falling expectations of a tightening in US policy.

Ashraf
a.j80
California, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
Jul 20, 2010 12:13
Hi everyone . . .
Found some interesting stuff on YouTube:http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=NDy8Z&m=I_GkiJXSxTWeOp&b=FjM5DtBrLOn1KWduGTZB0g
Tips on how-to install Expert Advisor.
Saka
China
Posts: 29
14 years ago
Jul 19, 2010 14:22
@Ashraf
Thanks for your tips. Just as what you describe, if eu's bond yield is higher than US', it is good for EU, am I right?

I am very sorry that I just have got a new job as a US stock editor last week and very busy, so that I didn't read your message. What a pity I miss a good opportunity to communicate with you....


@samof
hi, samof. My QQ is 776044530
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jul 15, 2010 14:56
saka, usually the currecny of the country;s whose yield is gaining does well. but it depends on the timing of the monetary policy outlooks.

Why dont you Tune in to my webinar this Sunday MIDNIGHT LONDON TIME which is decent timing for Japan.


http://bit.ly/bup7tZ

Ashraf
samof
Chongqing, China
Posts: 2
14 years ago
Jul 15, 2010 14:52
Saka, are you Chinese? Would you give me your qq? Talking with Chinese better than English!
saka
Beijing, China
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jul 15, 2010 9:12
Dear, Ashraf

I have finished reading yoru book. But I only find the charpterw concerned with the spread of structrure of interest of a country. I want to know how to use the spreads of US EU bond to analys
EU, thanks!
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Oct 4, 2009 0:33
Apologies if this is not the right place to ask, and also apologies if the answer turns out to be in the book (It's on order - not read it yet):

This is not directly related to bond yields but to the market price of bonds (my particular interest is in Eurobund and the related Bobl and Schatz). I can't get a handle on what it is that moves these from day to day and in the longer term. It has to be related to debt and interest rates in some way, and presumably also has a bearing on exchange rates as well, but how it all ties in, I don't quite see.

I presume that since government bonds (in stable countries) are one of the safest investments around, then the money goes there in times of risk aversion. So would I be right in thinking that the price of bonds tends to rise when Equities go down (and when the USD tends to go up, and EUR and GBP tend to go down)?

But I'm sure it's more complicated than that. Judging by the contents list of the book, I can't quite tell whether this question would be covered there. From my general reading around recently, I have picked up the impression that as well as everything else, an understanding of the bond market is quite important if we are to try to understand how the markets all fit together.

With thanks,
Regards,
M.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 4, 2009 13:25
forextrader, makes sense but not sure about rising as far as 10%. if that happens, the selloff in the markets would have to be really ugly. but id probably say w/in 2-3 months.

Ashraf