Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 31, 2008 20:40
Comments: 114
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart

Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 12:01
sorry to go on Ashraf, lets put this into perspective, California has an economy the size of India. Russia's economy depends on natural reserves it sells to the West. The Bric held a summit earlier last month too, maybe they all had a copy of the USDX chart in front of them ? It's a story that has potential to really hot up at the next G8, China are going to need OPEC though, wouldn't you agree?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:57
rajesh, i stick with my fcst from yesterday about euro testing 1.3880. Only the chinese jawboning could push euro up. i expect payrolls -430K.

Ashraf
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:55
There wil be no real growth until BRICS import and balance world trade. There is huge oversupply problem and the food commodities are the only sustainable growth area in a depressionary era. What use are your copper and your oil if there is no demand?

rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:50
Ashraf, will Eur/usd touch 1.4000 today? what is the support level?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:49
ok we are getting more economical here.

but if you assume BRICS do well and USA dont:

CA will fall = less dollar excesses to mop up

looking on a supply/demand basis if the dollar will sell off into BRICS currencies due to capital inflows away from the dollar then why would the dollar weaken against non-BRICS. Investors wont be buying the Euro or Pound directly.

speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:18
ashraf,

you will get the same relationship if you plot S&P 500 (not as strong) so it has got to do with risk appetite for global stocks. but if you are assume MSCI emerging markets will not be as correlated to non-emerging markets like S&P going forward then thats a different story.
rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:18
Eurozone unempl rate is highest @9.5% and if the US unemploy rate also turns out to be higher, how the Eur/usd would react? I guess USd will strengthen.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:05
spec, you ask how can USD drops when BRICS do well? this has been the foundation of my analysis all over this website, Book and Workbook. as BRICS grow, capital flows into their currencies, their stock markets, their economies.. away from USD-based cash and JPNS based cash. as these do well so does demand for "stuff" you can touch and demand for infrastrcuture ie co[per ==> rising commodities==> falling dollar. everybody must understand this property; improved emerging markets weigh on the buck. and as cougr said, just plot MSCI emerging market with dollar and you shall see.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 10:53
thanks cougr, i will have to do some research here to have a stronger counter-argument.

but you could say that the dollar index is an inverse relationship with the MSCI, S&P etc so what has the emerging markets got to do with anything? global indeces remain quite interlinked and move together in the same direction much of the time.

plus, how can you confirm we are in a secular bear?
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 10:47
Correction ,obvious mistake below ,should read emerging markets.
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